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Europa Conference League · 3RD QUALIFYING ROUND · THU, 13 AUG · 18:45 LOCAL
← Match Page
SHELBOURNE
FT
2 – 2
FULL TIME
AJAX
⚽ 24' Rodrigo Freitas ⚽ 85' Sean Moore
GOALS
⚽ 20' Julian Brandt ⚽ 39' Anton Gaaei
CLAUDE AI · BLENDED FROM 4 MODELS
FINAL · VERIFIED
CONF 52/100 MED
🔮 PREDICTED FULL-TIME SCORE
SHE
0 – 1
AJA
most likely scoreline · 17.1% probability
AI PICKS AJAX TO WIN 54%
FT 2 – 2
→
🤖 AI PROJECTED FT 0 – 1
🤖 AI BREAKDOWN

HOW AI SEES THE MATCH

FINAL · VERIFIED
SHE WIN 18%
DRAW 28%
AJA WIN 54%
h + d + a = 100% · stacked share
💰 AI BETTING TIP
DOUBLE CHANCE — X2

Tight 1X2 — single-side too risky. Double chance covers 82% of outcomes with smaller payout.

CONF 82% 4 models
🤖 AI ANALYSIS

Ajax clear favourite on form and H2H; Shelbourne competitive at home but Ajax's away-form dominance (WWDWW) favours visitors.

🤖 AI REASONING why AI picked this
WHY SHELBOURNE CHALLENGED
18%
Ajax away form elite (WWDWW) vs Shelbourne limited home sample (W only)
+20.0%
Early 0-0 at 2' provides no information — form trends dominate pre-match baseline
+15.0%
WHY AJAX FAVORED
54%
Ajax 3-1 away win 7 days ago provides strong H2H signal
+25.0%
🤖 CONTEXT · NEUTRAL FACTORS
  • Ajax away form elite (WWDWW) vs Shelbourne limited home sample (W only)
  • Early 0-0 at 2' provides no information — form trends dominate pre-match baseline
🤖 AI LIVE TIMELINE

PROBABILITY TIMELINE

How AI re-projects after each event
H DRAW A
100% 50% 0% KO 15' 30' HT 60' 75' FT ⚽ 20' JULIAN BRA ⚽ 24' RODRIGO FR ⚽ 39' ANTON GAAE ⚽ 85' SEAN MOORE
Probabilities re-blended at each event · 4 events marked → Derived from goal events + remaining time
🤖 AI SCORE MATRIX

SCORELINE PROBABILITY

All possible scorelines · Poisson from xG
0% 17.1%+
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
15.0
17.1
9.7
3.7
1.1
0.2
·
1
11.4
13.0
7.4
2.8
0.8
0.2
·
2
4.3
4.9
2.8
1.1
0.3
0.1
·
3
1.1
1.3
0.7
0.3
0.1
·
·
4
0.2
0.2
0.1
·
·
·
·
5
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
6+
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
MOST LIKELY · TOP 5
0 — 1 17.1%
0 — 0 15.0%
1 — 1 13.0%
1 — 0 11.4%
0 — 2 9.7%
Top 5 = 66.1% · rest 33.9%
🤖 AI VALUE FINDER

VALUE BETS

Where AI sees an edge vs bookmaker odds
8 markets · pre-match avg odds
MARKETODDSAI PROBFAIREDGE
HOME to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
11.63
18.0%
5.56
+109.3%
HOME or Draw (1X)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
4.41
46.0%
2.17
+102.8%
Draw
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
6.53
28.0%
3.57
+82.9%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.03
82.0%
1.22
-15.6%
—
HOME or AWAY (12)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.09
72.0%
1.39
-21.3%
—
AWAY to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.18
54.0%
1.85
-36.1%
—
Over 2.5 Goals
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.36
35.0%
2.86
-52.4%
—
Both Teams Score — YES
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.88
22.0%
4.55
-58.5%
—
⚠ 18+ only. Odds change frequently. AI predictions are not guarantees. Bet responsibly.