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Europa League · 3RD QUALIFYING ROUND · TUE, 11 AUG · 16:00 LOCAL
← Match Page
SABURTALO
AET
2 – 1
AFTER EXTRA TIME
LARNE
⚽ 74' Vakhtang Bedoshvili ⚽ 102' Nika Sikharulashvili
GOALS
⚽ 76' James Simpson
CLAUDE AI · BLENDED FROM 4 MODELS
FINAL · VERIFIED
CONF 35/100 LOW
🔮 PREDICTED FULL-TIME SCORE
SAB
1 – 1
LAR
most likely scoreline · 14.4% probability
AI PICKS SABURTALO TO WIN 38%
FT 2 – 1
→
🤖 AI PROJECTED FT 1 – 1
🤖 AI BREAKDOWN

HOW AI SEES THE MATCH

FINAL · VERIFIED
SAB WIN 38%
DRAW 38%
LAR WIN 24%
h + d + a = 100% · stacked share
💰 AI BETTING TIP
DOUBLE CHANCE — 1X

Tight 1X2 — single-side too risky. Double chance covers 76% of outcomes with smaller payout.

CONF 76% avoid: 1X2 single 4 models
🤖 AI ANALYSIS

Match is 1 minute old with no data; treat as extremely weak signal — form and H2H suggest low-scoring draw.

🤖 AI REASONING why AI picked this
WHY SABURTALO FAVORED
38%
Only 1 minute played; pre-match form leans toward defensive caution (recent H2H 0-0 twice)
+25.0%
Both teams inconsistent overall (Saburtalo DDLDW, Larne DLLWW) — no quality edge evident
+20.0%
Saburtalo home form weak (LD) vs Larne away form mixed (LW) — marginal home advantage
+15.0%
WHY LARNE CHALLENGED
24%
Only 1 minute played; pre-match form leans toward defensive caution (recent H2H 0-0 twice)
+25.0%
Both teams inconsistent overall (Saburtalo DDLDW, Larne DLLWW) — no quality edge evident
+20.0%
Saburtalo home form weak (LD) vs Larne away form mixed (LW) — marginal home advantage
+15.0%
🤖 CONTEXT · NEUTRAL FACTORS
  • Only 1 minute played; pre-match form leans toward defensive caution (recent H2H 0-0 twice)
  • Both teams inconsistent overall (Saburtalo DDLDW, Larne DLLWW) — no quality edge evident
  • Saburtalo home form weak (LD) vs Larne away form mixed (LW) — marginal home advantage
🤖 AI LIVE TIMELINE

PROBABILITY TIMELINE

How AI re-projects after each event
H DRAW A
100% 50% 0% KO 15' 30' HT 60' 75' FT ⚽ 74' VAKHTANG B ⚽ 76' JAMES SIMP ⚽ 102' NIKA SIKHA
Probabilities re-blended at each event · 3 events marked → Derived from goal events + remaining time
🤖 AI SCORE MATRIX

SCORELINE PROBABILITY

All possible scorelines · Poisson from xG
0% 14.4%+
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
13.5
12.7
6.0
1.9
0.4
0.1
·
1
14.4
13.5
6.3
2.0
0.5
0.1
·
2
7.6
7.2
3.4
1.1
0.3
·
·
3
2.7
2.5
1.2
0.4
0.1
·
·
4
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.1
·
·
·
5
0.2
0.1
0.1
·
·
·
·
6+
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
MOST LIKELY · TOP 5
1 — 0 14.4%
0 — 0 13.5%
1 — 1 13.5%
0 — 1 12.7%
2 — 0 7.6%
Top 5 = 61.7% · rest 38.3%
🤖 AI VALUE FINDER

VALUE BETS

Where AI sees an edge vs bookmaker odds
8 markets · pre-match avg odds
MARKETODDSAI PROBFAIREDGE
Draw
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
3.61
38.0%
2.63
+37.3%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.19
62.0%
1.61
+35.5%
AWAY to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
5.10
24.0%
4.17
+22.4%
Both Teams Score — YES
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.97
48.0%
2.08
-5.4%
—
HOME or Draw (1X)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.14
76.0%
1.32
-13.3%
—
Over 2.5 Goals
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.03
42.0%
2.38
-14.9%
—
HOME or AWAY (12)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.24
62.0%
1.61
-23.2%
—
HOME to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.65
38.0%
2.63
-37.3%
—
⚠ 18+ only. Odds change frequently. AI predictions are not guarantees. Bet responsibly.