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Liga MX · CLAUSURA - SEMI-FINALS · THU, 14 MAY · 02:00 LOCAL
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CRUZ AZUL
FT
2 – 2
FULL TIME
GUADALAJARA CHIVAS
⚽ 37' Carlos Rodríguez ⚽ 56' Osinachi Ebere
GOALS
⚽ 29' S. Sandoval ⚽ 50' Ángel Sepúlveda
CLAUDE AI · BLENDED FROM 4 MODELS
FINAL · VERIFIED
CONF 54/100 MED
🔮 PREDICTED FULL-TIME SCORE
CRU
1 – 0
GUA
most likely scoreline · 16.6% probability
AI PICKS CRUZ AZUL TO WIN 48%
FT 2 – 2
→
🤖 AI PROJECTED FT 1 – 0
🤖 AI BREAKDOWN

HOW AI SEES THE MATCH

FINAL · VERIFIED
CRU WIN 48%
DRAW 32%
GUA WIN 20%
h + d + a = 100% · stacked share
💰 AI BETTING TIP
DOUBLE CHANCE — 1X

Tight 1X2 — single-side too risky. Double chance covers 80% of outcomes with smaller payout.

CONF 80% avoid: 1X2 single 4 models
🤖 AI ANALYSIS

Tight first half with no clear dominance; Cruz Azul slight home edge but Chivas' superior league position (2nd vs 3rd) limits advantage.

🤖 AI REASONING why AI picked this
WHY CRUZ AZUL FAVORED
48%
Tight first half with no clear dominance; Cruz Azul slight home edge but Chivas' superior league position (2nd vs 3rd) limits advantage.
+30.0%
Cruz Azul strong home form (WWDWW) vs Chivas weak away form (LDLLL) — home edge real but modest
+20.0%
Chivas 2nd place vs Cruz Azul 3rd (3-pt gap) — quality near-parity; H2H recent history slightly favours home (2-1, 3-2 wins in last 3)
+15.0%
WHY GUADALAJARA CHIVAS CHALLENGED
20%
0-0 at 27' with balanced early play — live state dominates; draw probability rises late if status quo holds
+25.0%
🤖 CONTEXT · NEUTRAL FACTORS
  • 0-0 at 27' with balanced early play — live state dominates; draw probability rises late if status quo holds
🤖 AI LIVE TIMELINE

PROBABILITY TIMELINE

How AI re-projects after each event
H DRAW A
100% 50% 0% KO 15' 30' HT 60' 75' FT ⚽ 29' S. SANDOVA ⚽ 37' CARLOS ROD ⚽ 50' ÁNGEL SEP ⚽ 56' OSINACHI E
Probabilities re-blended at each event · 4 events marked → Derived from goal events + remaining time
🤖 AI SCORE MATRIX

SCORELINE PROBABILITY

All possible scorelines · Poisson from xG
0% 16.6%+
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
15.0
11.8
4.7
1.2
0.2
·
·
1
16.6
13.1
5.2
1.4
0.3
·
·
2
9.2
7.3
2.9
0.8
0.2
·
·
3
3.4
2.7
1.1
0.3
0.1
·
·
4
1.0
0.8
0.3
0.1
·
·
·
5
0.2
0.2
0.1
·
·
·
·
6+
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
MOST LIKELY · TOP 5
1 — 0 16.6%
0 — 0 15.0%
1 — 1 13.1%
0 — 1 11.8%
2 — 0 9.2%
Top 5 = 65.7% · rest 34.3%
🤖 AI VALUE FINDER

VALUE BETS

Where AI sees an edge vs bookmaker odds
8 markets · pre-match avg odds
MARKETODDSAI PROBFAIREDGE
Draw
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
3.30
32.0%
3.13
+5.5%
HOME or Draw (1X)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.32
80.0%
1.25
+5.4%
HOME to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.18
48.0%
2.08
+4.5%
—
Over 2.5 Goals
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.89
52.0%
1.92
-1.5%
—
HOME or AWAY (12)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.29
68.0%
1.47
-12.6%
—
Draw or AWAY (X2)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.64
52.0%
1.92
-14.6%
—
Both Teams Score — YES
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.69
48.0%
2.08
-18.9%
—
AWAY to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
3.18
20.0%
5.00
-36.4%
—
⚠ 18+ only. Odds change frequently. AI predictions are not guarantees. Bet responsibly.