GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 2–1 · SOUTHAMPTON 42% · Value: BTTS Yes 68%
CONF 58 FULL ANALYSIS →
Championship · SEMI-FINALS · TUE, 12 MAY · 19:00 LOCAL
SOUTHAMPTON
4TH · 80 PTS · LAST 5:
D W D D W
AET
2 – 1
AFTER EXTRA TIME HT · 1-1
MIDDLESBROUGH
D D W W D
· 5TH · 80 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 45+1' Ross Stewart ⚽ 116' Shea Emmanuel Charles
GOALS
⚽ 5' Riley McGree
Ryan Manning
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Ryan Manning
Southampton · 120 mins
· 48% pass acc · 2 shots on
RATING
8.6
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 4 CLIPS

powered by Highlightly
WE'RE GOING TO WEMBLEY 🤩 | Southampton 2-1 Middlesbrough | Play-off semi-final 2nd leg
Open in Youtube ↗
Championship: Southampton vs Middlesbrough
Championship: Southampton vs Middlesbrough
Championship: Southampton vs Middlesbrough
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

122%
BALL POSSESSION %
97%
20
TOTAL SHOTS
19
7
SHOTS ON TARGET
3
489%
PASS ACCURACY %
316%
11
CORNERS
5
KEY EVENTS 20 events
  1. 5'
    Goal · 0-1
    Riley McGree · assist Callum Brittain
    MID
  2. 13'
    Card · Foul
    Riley McGree
    MID
  3. 37'
    Card · Argument
    Nathan Wood
    SOU
  4. 38'
    Card · Foul
    Luke Ayling
    MID
  5. 45'+1
    Goal · 1-1
    Ross Stewart
    SOU
  6. 56'
    Card · Foul
    Finn Azaz
    SOU
  7. 66'
    Subst
    Flynn Downes · assist Kuryu Matsuki
    SOU
  8. 73'
    Subst
    Alan Browne · assist Tommy Conway
    MID
  9. 78'
    Card · Foul
    Adilson Malanda
    MID
  10. 83'
    Subst
    Leo Castledine · assist David Strelec
    MID
  11. 84'
    Subst
    Cyle Larin · assist Ross Stewart
    SOU
  12. 85'
    Subst
    Samuel Edozie · assist Leo Scienza
    SOU
  13. 92'
    Card · Foul
    Callum Brittain
    MID
  14. 106'
    Subst
    Jeremy Sarmiento · assist Riley McGree
    MID
  15. 116'
    Goal · 2-1
    Shea Emmanuel Charles · assist Taylor Harwood-Bellis
    SOU
  16. 119'
    Subst
    Welington · assist Samuel Edozie
    SOU
  17. 119'
    Subst
    Cameron Bragg · assist Caspar Jander
    SOU
  18. 119'
    Subst
    Sontje Hansen · assist Luke Ayling
    MID
  19. 120'+3
    Card · Time wasting
    Daniel Peretz
    SOU
  20. 120'+6
    Card · Foul
    Cyle Larin
    SOU
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
SOUTHAMPTON AVG 7.7
MIDDLESBROUGH AVG 7.3
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
20.0
TOTAL SHOTS
19.0
7.0
ON TARGET
3.0
6.0
OFF TARGET
7.0
7.0
BLOCKED
9.0
POSSESSION
122.0%
POSSESSION %
97.0%
589.0
PASSES
405.0
489.0%
PASS ACCURACY
316.0%
SET PIECES
11.0
CORNERS
5.0
23.0
OFFSIDES
20.0
DISCIPLINE
15.0
FOULS
19.0
4.0
YELLOW CARDS
4.0
2.0
GK SAVES
4.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
SOUTHAMPTON 5 shots
Ryan Manning
2/2
Shea Charles
1/1
Nathan Wood
0/1
Finn Azaz
1/1
MIDDLESBROUGH 1 shots
Riley McGree
1/1
⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 55%
45% A
11
EVENTS LOGGED
9
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-2-2 vs 3-4-2-1
4-2-2-2
3-4-2-1
41
DANIEL PE
3
RYAN MANN
15
NATHAN WO
14
EMMANUEL
6
TAYLOR HA
24
SHEA EMMA
20
CASPAR JA
10
FINN AZAZ
27
KURYU MAT
13
LEO SCIEN
11
ROSS STEW
31
SOL BRYNN
29
ADILSON M
12
LUKE AYLI
6
DAEL FRY
2
CALLUM BR
18
AIDAN MOR
8
RILEY MCG
3
MATT TARG
11
MORGAN WH
9
TOMMY CON
13
DAVID STR
SUBSTITUTES · SOUTHAMPTON
34
Welington
D
25
George Long
G
23
Samuel Edozi...
M
19
Cameron Arch...
F
18
Tom Fellows
M
9
Cyle Larin
F
5
I. Mesík
D
4
Flynn Downes
M
48
Cameron Brag...
M
COACH: Tonda Eckert
SUBSTITUTES · MIDDLESBROUGH
32
Matz Sels
G
27
Sontje Hanse...
F
25
George Edmun...
D
23
Leo Castledi...
M
22
Sam Silvera
F
16
Alan Browne
M
15
Finley Munro...
D
14
Alex Gilbert
F
45
Jeremy Sarmi...
M
COACH: Kim Hellberg
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
SOU · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

MID · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
A. Madley
—
SOU MANAGER
Tonda Eckert
head coach
MID MANAGER
Kim Hellberg
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
3
SOU WINS
4
DRAWS
3
MID WINS
30%
40%
30%
10 – 11
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.10
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
09 May 2026
Middlesbrough
0 – 0
Southampton
D
04 Jan 2026
Middlesbrough
4 – 0
Southampton
L
27 Sep 2025
Southampton
1 – 1
Middlesbrough
D
29 Mar 2024
Southampton
1 – 1
Middlesbrough
D
23 Sep 2023
Middlesbrough
2 – 1
Southampton
L
SOUTHAMPTON LAST 5 OVERALL
D W D D W
MIDDLESBROUGH LAST 5 OVERALL
D D W W D
MATCH IMPACT Final 2–1 · result locked
SOUTHAMPTON #4
Won · already at 80 pts
Promotion Playoffs
MIDDLESBROUGH #5
Lost · already at 80 pts
Promotion Playoffs
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Coventry 46 28 11 7 +52 95
W W W D D
2 Ipswich 46 23 15 8 +33 84
W D D W D
3 Millwall 46 24 11 11 +15 83
L D W D W
4 Southampton 46 22 14 10 +26 80
W D W D D
5 Middlesbrough 46 22 14 10 +25 80
L D D W W
6 Hull City 46 21 10 15 +4 73
W D W L D
7 Wrexham 46 19 14 13 +4 71
D L W W L
8 Derby 46 20 9 17 +8 69
L W L W L
9 Norwich 46 19 8 19 +7 65
L D W W L
10 Birmingham 46 17 13 16 +1 64
D W W D W
11 Swansea 46 18 10 18 -2 64
W D W L W
12 Bristol City 46 17 11 18 0 62
W L D L D
13 Sheffield Utd 46 18 6 22 0 60
W L L W W
14 Preston 46 15 15 16 -7 60
L W L L W
15 QPR 46 16 10 20 -12 58
L L L L D
16 Watford 46 14 15 17 -12 57
L L L L L
17 Stoke City 46 15 10 21 -5 55
L L L L D
18 Portsmouth 46 14 13 19 -15 55
D W L W W
19 Charlton 46 13 14 19 -14 53
L W L D L
20 Blackburn 46 13 13 20 -14 52
L W D L D
21 West Brom 46 13 14 19 -10 51
L D W W D
22 Oxford United 46 11 14 21 -14 47
L W L L W
23 Leicester 46 12 16 18 -10 46
W D D L L
24 Sheffield Wednesday 46 2 12 32 -60 0
W L L D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 120'+6
    Card · Foul · Cyle Larin
    8th Yellowcard
  • 120'+3
    Card · Time wasting · Daniel Peretz
    7th Yellowcard
  • 119'
    Subst · Sontje Hansen
    8th Substitution
  • 119'
    Subst · Cameron Bragg
    7th Substitution
  • 119'
    Subst · Welington
    9th Substitution
  • 116'
    Goal · 2-1 · Shea Emmanuel Charles
    3rd Goal
  • 106'
    Subst · Jeremy Sarmiento
    6th Substitution
  • 92'
    Card · Foul · Callum Brittain
    6th Yellowcard
  • 85'
    Subst · Samuel Edozie
    5th Substitution
  • 84'
    Subst · Cyle Larin
    4th Substitution
  • 83'
    Subst · Leo Castledine
    3rd Substitution
  • 78'
    Card · Foul · Adilson Malanda
    5th Yellowcard
  • 73'
    Subst · Alan Browne
    2nd Substitution
  • 66'
    Subst · Flynn Downes
    1st Substitution
  • 56'
    Card · Foul · Finn Azaz
    4th Yellowcard
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 1
  • 45'+1
    Goal · 1-1 · Ross Stewart
    2nd Goal
  • 38'
    Card · Foul · Luke Ayling
    3rd Yellowcard
  • 37'
    Card · Argument · Nathan Wood
    2nd Yellowcard
  • 13'
    Card · Foul · Riley McGree
    1st Yellowcard
  • 5'
    Goal · 0-1 · Riley McGree
    1st Goal
33 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 33 BOOKMAKERS
SOUTHAMPTON WIN
2.43
41.2% implied
↑ best 2.58
DRAW
3.34
29.9% implied
↑ best 3.50
MIDDLESBROUGH WIN
2.85
35.1% implied
↑ best 3.06

Market favors Southampton. AI projects SOUTHAMPTON 42% · value bet BTTS Yes.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS SOUTHAMPTON 42% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.48 3.30 2.75 +4.7%
10Bet 2.46 3.35 2.74 +5.1%
1xbet 2.43 3.42 3.06 +5.8%
1xBet 2.48 3.40 3.00 +5.6%
888Sport 2.30 3.30 2.80 +4.7%
888Sport 2.30 3.30 2.80 +4.7%
Bet365 2.38 3.40 2.88 +5.6%
Betano 2.55 3.40 2.77 +5.6%
Betfair 2.45 3.30 2.80 +4.7%
Betfair 2.38 3.40 3.00 +5.6%
BetVictor 2.45 3.30 2.88 +4.7%
BetVictor 2.40 3.40 2.90 +5.6%
bwin 2.37 3.40 2.90 +5.6%
Cashpoint 2.46 3.35 2.86 +5.1%
CloudBet 2.45 3.40 2.85 +5.6%
Coral 2.37 3.40 2.90 +5.6%
Dafabet 2.50 3.45 2.85 +6.0%
Dafabet 2.45 3.45 2.95 +6.0%
Interwetten 2.45 3.15 2.75 +3.3%
Ladbrokes 2.37 3.30 2.90 +4.7%
Macauslot 2.26 2.95 2.90 +1.1%
MansionBet 2.47 3.40 2.62 +5.6%
Marathonbet 2.54 3.38 2.93 +5.4%
Marathonbet 2.58 3.38 2.88 +5.4%
MelBet 2.48 3.30 2.87 +4.7%
Pinnacle 2.52 3.44 2.89 +5.9%
Pinnacle 2.57 3.45 2.82 +6.0%
Sbo 2.45 3.22 2.70 +3.9%
SBO 2.45 3.24 2.69 +4.1%
Unibet 2.38 3.50 2.80 +6.4%
Unibet 2.30 3.40 2.95 +5.6%
William Hill 2.45 3.20 2.80 +3.8%
WilliamHill 2.40 3.20 2.88 +3.8%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.23 U 3.94
2.5 O 1.77 U 2.04
3.5 O 2.81 U 1.41
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.58 18 bks
NO
2.27 18 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.73
Away -0.5 1.56
Away -0.75 1.39
Away -1 1.24
Away -1.25 1.20
Away -1.5 1.16
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.