GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 2–1 · ST. TRUIDEN 52% · Value: Over 2.5 62%
CONF 48 FULL ANALYSIS →
Jupiler Pro League · CHAMPIONSHIP GROUP - 40 · SUN, 24 MAY · 16:30 LOCAL
ST. TRUIDEN
3RD · 57 PTS · LAST 5:
L D L W W
FT
3 – 0
FULL TIME HT · 2-0
KV MECHELEN
D D L W L
· 5TH · 45 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 24' Arbnor Muja ⚽ 45+3' Taiga Hata ⚽ 71' Ryan Merlen
GOALS
Arbnor Muja
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Arbnor Muja
St. Truiden · 81 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 🅰 1 assist · 24% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
9.2
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 1 CLIP

powered by Highlightly
Jupiler Pro League: St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen
Open in Youtube ↗
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.52
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.42
47%
BALL POSSESSION %
53%
11
TOTAL SHOTS
7
3
SHOTS ON TARGET
1
82%
PASS ACCURACY %
79%
2
CORNERS
2
KEY EVENTS 18 events
  1. 24'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Arbnor Muja · assist Rihito Yamamoto
    ST.
  2. 40'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Massimo Decoene
    KV
  3. 45'+3
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Taiga Hata · assist Arbnor Muja
    ST.
  4. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Dikeni Salifou · assist Benito Raman
    KV
  5. 48'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Redouane Halhal
    KV
  6. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Mathis Servais · assist Bill Antonio
    KV
  7. 68'
    Var · Goal Disallowed - offside
    Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
    ST.
  8. 69'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
    ST.
  9. 71'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Ryan Merlen
    ST.
  10. 74'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Bouke Boersma · assist Keano Vanrafelghem
    KV
  11. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Kerim Mrabti · assist Mory Konate
    KV
  12. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Thérence Koudou · assist Maxim Kireev
    KV
  13. 81'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Arbnor Muja · assist Kaito Matsuzawa
    ST.
  14. 81'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Keisuke Goto · assist O. Diouf
    ST.
  15. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Rihito Yamamoto · assist Shion Shinkawa
    ST.
  16. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Shogo Taniguchi · assist Wolke Janssens
    ST.
  17. 87'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Ryan Merlen
    ST.
  18. 89'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Matt Lendfers · assist Jo Coppens
    ST.
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
ST. TRUIDEN AVG 7.7
KV MECHELEN AVG 6.7
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.5
xG
0.4
11.0
TOTAL SHOTS
7.0
3.0
ON TARGET
1.0
6.0
OFF TARGET
5.0
2.0
BLOCKED
1.0
POSSESSION
47.0%
POSSESSION %
53.0%
381.0
PASSES
422.0
82.0%
PASS ACCURACY
79.0%
SET PIECES
2.0
CORNERS
2.0
4.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
6.0
FOULS
5.0
2.0
YELLOW CARDS
2.0
1.0
GK SAVES
0.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
ST. TRUIDEN 5 shots
Arbnor Muja
1/3
Taiga Hata
1/1
Ryan Merlen
1/1
KV MECHELEN 1 shots
Fredrik Hammar
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.52 – 0.42
1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 1.5 0.0 HT 24' 45' 71' H 1.52 A 0.42 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 61%
39% A
11
EVENTS LOGGED
7
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-3
4-2-3-1
3-4-3
21
MATT LEND
 7.7
3
TAIGA HAT
 7.2
26
VISAR MUS
 7.2
5
SHOGO TAN
60
ROBERT-JA
8
ABDOULAYE
6
RIHITO YA
10
ILIAS SEB
 7.3
14
RYAN MERL
 9.2
7
ARBNOR MU
42
KEISUKE G
1
ORTWIN DE
3
JOSé MARS
2
REDOUANE
39
MASSIMO D
17
MATHIS SE
 6.6
6
FREDRIK H
29
DIKENI SA
7
THéRENCE
 7.0
9
MYRON VAN
28
BOUKE BOE
 6.6
19
KERIM MRA
SUBSTITUTES · ST. TRUIDEN
77
Oumar Diouf
F
38
Kaito Matsuz...
F
33
Alouis Dirik...
M
23
Joedrick Pup...
D
4
Loïc Mbe Soh
D
22
Wolke Jansse...
D
18
Simen Jukler...
D
12
Jo Coppens
G
99
Shion Shinka...
F
COACH: Wouter Vrancken
SUBSTITUTES · KV MECHELEN
27
Keano Vanraf...
F
11
Bilal Bafdil...
M
10
Maxim Kireev
M
14
Benito Raman
F
4
Gora Diouf
D
8
Mory Konate
M
18
Ian Struyf
D
15
Tijn Van Ing...
G
38
Bill Antonio
F
COACH: Frederic Vanderbiest
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
ST. · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

KV · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Jasper Vergoote, Belgium
—
ST. MANAGER
Wouter Vrancken
head coach
KV MANAGER
Frederic Vanderbiest
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
8
ST. WINS
1
DRAWS
1
KV WINS
80%
10%
10%
20 – 8
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.80
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
26 Apr 2026
KV Mechelen
1 – 4
St. Truiden
W
21 Dec 2025
St. Truiden
1 – 0
KV Mechelen
W
04 Oct 2025
KV Mechelen
1 – 3
St. Truiden
W
21 Feb 2025
KV Mechelen
1 – 1
St. Truiden
D
08 Nov 2024
St. Truiden
2 – 1
KV Mechelen
W
ST. TRUIDEN LAST 5 OVERALL
L D L W W
KV MECHELEN LAST 5 OVERALL
D D L W L
MATCH IMPACT Final 3–0 · result locked
ST. TRUIDEN #3
Won · already at 57 pts
Championship round
KV MECHELEN #5
Lost · already at 45 pts
Championship round
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Club Brugge KV 40 28 4 8 +46 57
W D W W W
1 Zulte Waregem 36 13 9 14 0 48
W W W W W
1 Union St. Gilloise 30 19 9 2 +33 66
W D L W L
1 Genk 40 15 14 11 +4 38
W D D W L
2 Standard Liege 40 16 9 15 -2 37
L W D W W
2 Club Brugge KV 30 20 3 7 +23 63
W D W W W
2 Cercle Brugge 36 10 11 15 -5 41
L L W W W
2 Union St. Gilloise 40 25 11 4 +39 53
W D L W L
3 Charleroi 40 14 9 17 0 34
W D L W W
3 St. Truiden 30 18 3 9 +12 57
W L D L W
3 RAAL La Louvière 36 7 13 16 -15 34
W L L L L
3 St. Truiden 40 22 5 13 +15 43
W L D L W
4 Anderlecht 40 15 10 15 -3 33
L W D D L
4 Dender 36 5 10 21 -31 25
D L L W L
4 Gent 30 13 6 11 +6 45
L D D D L
4 KVC Westerlo 40 14 10 16 -7 33
L L W L D
5 Antwerp 40 13 9 18 -5 31
W D L L L
5 KV Mechelen 30 12 9 9 +2 45
L D D L W
5 Gent 40 13 12 15 -4 29
L D D D L
6 KV Mechelen 40 13 12 15 -13 29
L D D L W
6 Anderlecht 30 12 8 10 +4 44
L W D D L
6 OH Leuven 40 10 10 20 -19 23
L D W L D
7 Genk 30 11 9 10 -1 42
W D D W L
8 Standard Liege 30 11 7 12 -8 40
L W D W W
9 KVC Westerlo 30 10 9 11 -4 39
L L W L D
10 Antwerp 30 9 8 13 -1 35
W D L L L
11 Charleroi 30 9 7 14 -4 34
W D L W W
12 OH Leuven 30 9 7 14 -11 34
L D W L D
13 Zulte Waregem 30 8 8 14 -9 32
W W W W W
14 Cercle Brugge 30 7 10 13 -8 31
L L W W W
15 RAAL La Louvière 30 6 13 11 -7 31
W L L L L
16 Dender 30 3 10 17 -27 19
D L L W L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 89'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Matt Lendfers
  • 87'
    Card · Yellow Card · Ryan Merlen
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Shogo Taniguchi
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Rihito Yamamoto
  • 81'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Keisuke Goto
  • 81'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Arbnor Muja
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Thérence Koudou
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Kerim Mrabti
  • 74'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Bouke Boersma
  • 71'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Ryan Merlen
  • 69'
    Card · Yellow Card · Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
  • 68'
    Var · Goal Disallowed - offside · Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Mathis Servais
  • 48'
    Card · Yellow Card · Redouane Halhal
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Dikeni Salifou
  • HALF TIME · 2 – 0
  • 45'+3
    Goal · Normal Goal · Taiga Hata
  • 40'
    Card · Yellow Card · Massimo Decoene
  • 24'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Arbnor Muja
14 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 14 BOOKMAKERS
ST. TRUIDEN WIN
1.91
52.4% implied
↑ best 1.99
DRAW
3.88
25.8% implied
↑ best 4.30
KV MECHELEN WIN
3.45
29% implied
↑ best 3.67

Market favors St. Truiden. AI projects ST. TRUIDEN 52% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS ST. TRUIDEN 52% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.95 3.80 3.45 +1.7%
1xBet 1.90 4.06 3.62 +3.4%
888Sport 1.91 3.70 3.30 +1.0%
Bet365 1.90 3.90 3.20 +2.4%
Betano 1.98 4.20 3.55 +4.2%
Betfair 1.90 3.75 3.25 +1.3%
BetVictor 1.93 3.80 3.50 +1.7%
Dafabet 1.99 3.90 3.45 +2.4%
Marathonbet 1.85 3.96 3.58 +2.7%
Pinnacle 1.95 4.06 3.40 +3.4%
SBO 1.72 3.63 3.67 +0.5%
Superbet 1.85 4.30 3.55 +4.7%
Unibet 1.97 3.60 3.45 +1.2%
William Hill 1.91 3.70 3.30 +1.0%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.16 U 4.82
2.5 O 1.57 U 2.36
3.5 O 2.41 U 1.52
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.52 11 bks
NO
2.36 11 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.16
Away -0.5 1.86
Away -0.75 1.70
Away -1 1.48
Away -1.25 1.39
Away -1.5 1.32
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.