GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 2–0 · PALMEIRAS 68%
CONF 62 FULL ANALYSIS →
Copa Libertadores · GROUP STAGE - 5 · THU, 21 MAY · 00:30 LOCAL
PALMEIRAS
2ND · 8 PTS · LAST 5:
W D W W W
FT
0 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 0-0
CERRO PORTENO
W D W L L
· 1ST · 10 PTS · LAST 5
GOALS
⚽ 48' Pablo Vegetti
Andreas Pereira
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Andreas Pereira
Palmeiras · 85 mins
· 60% pass acc
RATING
7.5
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

0.79
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.76
74%
BALL POSSESSION %
26%
11
TOTAL SHOTS
7
5
SHOTS ON TARGET
2
88%
PASS ACCURACY %
62%
6
CORNERS
3
KEY EVENTS 15 events
  1. 45'+3
    Card · Yellow Card
    Piris da Motta
    CER
  2. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Marcelo Chaparro · assist Guillermo Benitez
    CER
  3. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Fredy Noguera · assist Jonatan Torres
    CER
  4. 48'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Pablo Vegetti · assist Fabricio Domínguez
    CER
  5. 59'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Agustín Giay · assist Mauricio
    PAL
  6. 60'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Jorge Morel
    CER
  7. 61'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Guillermo Benitez
    CER
  8. 62'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Mateo Klimowicz · assist Cesar Bobadilla
    CER
  9. 68'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Arthur Gabriel
    PAL
  10. 71'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Emiliano Martínez · assist Paulinho
    PAL
  11. 73'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Cecilio Domínguez · assist Juan Iturbe
    CER
  12. 84'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Andreas Pereira
    PAL
  13. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Allan · assist Luighi Hanri
    PAL
  14. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Andreas Pereira · assist Lucas Evangelista
    PAL
  15. 89'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Gustavo Gómez
    PAL
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
PALMEIRAS AVG 7.0
CERRO PORTENO AVG 7.3
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
0.8
xG
0.8
11.0
TOTAL SHOTS
7.0
5.0
ON TARGET
2.0
4.0
OFF TARGET
1.0
2.0
BLOCKED
4.0
POSSESSION
74.0%
POSSESSION %
26.0%
520.0
PASSES
175.0
88.0%
PASS ACCURACY
62.0%
SET PIECES
6.0
CORNERS
3.0
3.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
17.0
FOULS
10.0
3.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
1.0
GK SAVES
5.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
PALMEIRAS 0 shots

No shots recorded.

CERRO PORTENO 1 shots
Pablo Vegetti
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 0.79 – 0.76
0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.0 HT 48' H 0.79 A 0.76 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 47%
53% A
7
EVENTS LOGGED
8
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-1-4-1
4-2-3-1
4-1-4-1
6.9
1
CARLOS MI
56
ARTHUR GA
 6.9
26
MURILO
 6.9
15
GUSTAVO G
4
AGUSTíN G
 6.9
17
MARLON FR
32
EMILIANO
11
JHON ARIA
 7.5
8
ANDREAS P
40
ALLAN
42
JOSé LóPE
 7.3
1
ALEXIS MA
35
MARCELO C
22
MATíAS Pé
 7.3
23
GUSTAVO V
 7.2
2
FABRICIO
26
PIRIS DA
36
FREDY NOG
 7.2
40
MATEO KLI
5
JORGE MOR
10
CECILIO D
 7.3
19
PABLO VEG
SUBSTITUTES · PALMEIRAS
50
Luis Pacheco
M
37
Riquelme Fil...
F
45
Erick Belé
M
10
Paulinho
F
48
Larson
M
30
Lucas Evange...
M
18
Mauricio
M
12
Khellven
D
44
Zie Mohamed...
D
6
Jefté
D
14
Marcelo Lomb...
G
31
Luighi Hanri
F
COACH: Ferreira Abel
SUBSTITUTES · CERRO PORTENO
16
Fabrizio Per...
M
20
Wílder Viera
M
27
Jonatan Torr...
F
11
Juan Iturbe
F
32
Cesar Bobadi...
M
13
Guillermo Be...
D
14
Lucas Quinta...
D
33
Rodrigo Góme...
D
42
Víctor Sánch...
D
6
Abel Luciatt...
D
25
Roberto Fern...
G
24
Edgar Raul P...
F
COACH: Jorge Achucarro
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
PAL · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

CER · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Y. Perez
—
PAL MANAGER
Ferreira Abel
head coach
CER MANAGER
Jorge Achucarro
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
6
PAL WINS
1
DRAWS
0
CER WINS
85.7%
14.3%
17 – 2
TOTAL GOALS · 7 MEETINGS
2.71
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 7
30 Apr 2026
Cerro Porteno
1 – 1
Palmeiras
D
08 May 2025
Cerro Porteno
0 – 2
Palmeiras
W
10 Apr 2025
Palmeiras
1 – 0
Cerro Porteno
W
24 May 2023
Cerro Porteno
0 – 3
Palmeiras
W
21 Apr 2023
Palmeiras
2 – 1
Cerro Porteno
W
PALMEIRAS LAST 5 OVERALL
W D W W W
CERRO PORTENO LAST 5 OVERALL
W D W L L
MATCH IMPACT Final 0–1 · result locked
PALMEIRAS #2
Lost · already at 8 pts
Playoffs
CERRO PORTENO #1
Won · already at 10 pts
Playoffs
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Flamengo 6 5 1 0 +12 16
W W D W W
1 Rosario Central 5 4 1 0 +9 13
W W W W D
1 LDU de Quito 6 4 0 2 +3 12
W W L L W
1 Cerro Porteno 5 3 1 1 +2 10
W W D W L
1 Corinthians 5 3 2 0 +6 11
D D W W W
1 U. Catolica 5 3 1 1 +3 10
W D W W L
1 Independ. Rivadavia 5 4 1 0 +7 13
W D W W W
1 Coquimbo Unido 6 3 1 2 +2 10
L W W L W
2 Independiente del Valle 5 3 1 1 +4 10
W L W W D
2 Mirassol 6 4 0 2 +3 12
L W W W L
2 Palmeiras 5 2 2 1 +2 8
L W D W D
2 Platense 5 2 1 2 -1 7
L D W W L
2 Cruzeiro 5 2 2 1 +1 8
D D W L W
2 Bolívar 5 1 2 2 0 5
L D W D L
2 Deportes Tolima 6 2 2 2 +1 8
D L W W L
2 Estudiantes L.P. 6 2 3 1 +1 9
W L D D W
3 UCV 5 2 0 3 -5 6
L W L L W
3 Lanus 6 3 0 3 -4 9
W L L W W
3 Sporting Cristal 5 2 0 3 -1 6
L L W L W
3 Santa Fe 5 1 2 2 -2 5
W D L L D
3 Boca Juniors 5 2 1 2 +2 7
D L L W W
3 Fluminense 5 1 2 2 -2 5
W D L L D
3 Club Nacional 6 2 2 2 -2 8
W D L L W
3 Independiente Medellin 6 2 1 3 -5 7
L W W L D
4 Always Ready 6 1 0 5 -2 3
L L W L L
4 Junior 5 1 1 3 -3 4
W L L L D
4 Penarol 5 0 3 2 -3 3
D D L L D
4 Barcelona SC 5 1 0 4 -6 3
L W L L L
4 Deportivo La Guaira 5 0 3 2 -5 3
L D L D D
4 Universitario 6 1 3 2 -1 6
D D L W L
4 Cusco 6 0 1 5 -8 1
L L D L L
4 Libertad Asuncion 5 0 0 5 -8 0
L L L L L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 89'
    Card · Yellow Card · Gustavo Gómez
    Foul
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Andreas Pereira
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Allan
  • 84'
    Card · Yellow Card · Andreas Pereira
    Foul
  • 73'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Cecilio Domínguez
  • 71'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Emiliano Martínez
  • 68'
    Card · Yellow Card · Arthur Gabriel
    Tripping
  • 62'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Mateo Klimowicz
  • 61'
    Card · Yellow Card · Guillermo Benitez
    Foul
  • 60'
    Card · Yellow Card · Jorge Morel
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 59'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Agustín Giay
  • 48'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Pablo Vegetti
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Fredy Noguera
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Marcelo Chaparro
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 0
  • 45'+3
    Card · Yellow Card · Piris da Motta
    Tripping
14 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 14 BOOKMAKERS
PALMEIRAS WIN
1.30
76.9% implied
↑ best 1.34
DRAW
5.01
20% implied
↑ best 5.31
CERRO PORTENO WIN
10.68
9.4% implied
↑ best 12.50

Market favors Palmeiras. AI projects PALMEIRAS 68%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS PALMEIRAS 68% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.33 5.10 8.40 +0.4%
1xBet 1.31 5.19 11.80 +3.5%
888Sport 1.29 4.80 11.00 +2.9%
Bet365 1.33 5.25 9.50 +1.5%
Betano 1.34 5.20 12.00 +3.7%
Betfair 1.25 5.00 11.00 +2.9%
BetVictor 1.30 5.00 12.00 +3.7%
Dafabet 1.32 5.20 11.00 +2.9%
Marathonbet 1.28 4.95 11.25 +3.1%
Pinnacle 1.30 5.31 11.89 +3.6%
SBO 1.29 4.38 7.14 -2.0%
Superbet 1.32 5.00 10.00 +2.0%
Unibet 1.27 5.00 12.50 +4.0%
William Hill 1.30 4.75 10.00 +2.0%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.32 U 3.21
2.5 O 2.01 U 1.78
3.5 O 3.62 U 1.26
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
2.62 11 bks
NO
1.43 11 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 4.55
Away -0.5 3.49
Away -0.75 3.02
Away -1 2.59
Away -1.25 2.06
Away -1.5 1.80
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.