GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 2–3 · CHARLOTTE 95% · Value: Over 2.5 92%
CONF 88 FULL ANALYSIS →
Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 20 · WED, 19 AUG · 23:30 LOCAL
TORONTO FC
11TH · 21 PTS · LAST 5:
W D L D D
FT
3 – 3
FULL TIME HT · 1-2
CHARLOTTE
W L W D W
· 6TH · 29 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 13' Markus Cimermancic ⚽ 76' Dániel Sallói ⚽ 90' Niklas Dorsch
GOALS
⚽ 8' Rodolfo Aloko ⚽ 20' Idan Toklomati ⚽ 58' Henry Kessler
Rodolfo Aloko
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Rodolfo Aloko
Charlotte · 69 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 13% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
8.3
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.86
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.16
46%
BALL POSSESSION %
54%
15
TOTAL SHOTS
13
5
SHOTS ON TARGET
9
89%
PASS ACCURACY %
91%
6
CORNERS
3
KEY EVENTS 17 events
  1. 8'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Rodolfo Aloko · assist Ashley Westwood
    CHA
  2. 13'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Markus Cimermancic · assist Josh Sargent
    TOR
  3. 20'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Idan Toklomati · assist Liel Abada
    CHA
  4. 56'
    Card · Red Card
    Walker Zimmerman
    TOR
  5. 58'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Henry Kessler · assist Ashley Westwood
    CHA
  6. 60'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Alonso Coello · assist Matheus Pereira
    TOR
  7. 69'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Rodolfo Aloko · assist Tyger Smalls
    CHA
  8. 69'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Liel Abada · assist Allan Saint-Maximin
    CHA
  9. 76'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Dániel Sallói · assist Theo Corbeanu
    TOR
  10. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Idan Toklomati · assist Archie Goodwin
    CHA
  11. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Pep Biel · assist Luca De La Torre
    CHA
  12. 82'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Markus Cimermancic · assist Derrick Etienne
    TOR
  13. 83'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Benjamin Kuscevic · assist Zane Monlouis
    TOR
  14. 85'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Matheus Pereira
    TOR
  15. 90'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Niklas Dorsch · assist Derrick Etienne
    TOR
  16. 90'+4
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Brandt Bronico · assist Djibril Diani
    CHA
  17. 90'+5
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Niklas Dorsch · assist Kobe Franklin
    TOR
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
TORONTO FC AVG 7.3
CHARLOTTE AVG 7.5
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.9
xG
1.2
15.0
TOTAL SHOTS
13.0
5.0
ON TARGET
9.0
6.0
OFF TARGET
4.0
4.0
BLOCKED
0.0
POSSESSION
46.0%
POSSESSION %
54.0%
400.0
PASSES
486.0
89.0%
PASS ACCURACY
91.0%
SET PIECES
6.0
CORNERS
3.0
0.0
OFFSIDES
2.0
DISCIPLINE
10.0
FOULS
10.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
0.0
1.0
RED CARDS
0.0
6.0
GK SAVES
2.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
TORONTO FC 8 shots
Niklas Dorsch
1/2
Markus Cimermancic
2/2
Josh Sargent
1/2
Theo Corbeanu
0/1
Benjamin Kuscevic
0/1
CHARLOTTE 7 shots
Henry Kessler
1/2
Idan Toklomati
2/2
Allan Saint-Maximin
2/2
Rodolfo Aloko
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.86 – 1.16
1.5 1.1 0.7 0.4 1.9 0.0 HT 13' 76' 90' 8' 20' 58' H 1.86 A 1.16 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 53%
47% A
9
EVENTS LOGGED
8
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3
4-2-3-1
4-3-3
1
LUKA GAVR
38
JACKSON G
 6.9
13
BENJAMIN
25
WALKER ZI
22
RICHIE LA
 7.9
6
NIKLAS DO
14
ALONSO CO
20
DáNIEL SA
 7.3
71
MARKUS CI
 7.6
7
THEO CORB
 6.9
9
JOSH SARG
1
KRISTIJAN
23
DAVID SCH
3
TIM REAM
 8.2
22
HENRY KES
35
WILL CLEA
13
BRANDT BR
16
PEP BIEL
 7.3
8
ASHLEY WE
11
LIEL ABAD
 7.0
9
IDAN TOKL
 8.3
37
RODOLFO A
SUBSTITUTES · TORONTO FC
99
Jules-Anthon...
F
11
Derrick Etie...
F
3
Matheus Pere...
D
78
Malik Henry
M
44
Raheem Edwar...
D
19
Kobe Frankli...
D
12
Zane Monloui...
D
23
William Yarb...
G
17
Emilio Arist...
F
COACH: Robin Fraser
SUBSTITUTES · CHARLOTTE
7
Archie Goodw...
F
10
Allan Saint-...
F
28
Djibril Dian...
M
17
Luca De La T...
M
44
Morrison Agy...
D
4
Andrew Prive...
D
14
Nathan Byrne
D
21
Tyler Miller
G
25
Tyger Smalls
F
COACH: Dean Smith
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
TOR · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

CHA · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Alexis Da Silva, USA
—
TOR MANAGER
Robin Fraser
head coach
CHA MANAGER
Dean Smith
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
3
TOR WINS
1
DRAWS
5
CHA WINS
33.3%
11.1%
55.6%
12 – 15
TOTAL GOALS · 9 MEETINGS
3.00
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 9
16 May 2026
Charlotte
3 – 1
Toronto FC
L
26 Jul 2025
Charlotte
2 – 0
Toronto FC
L
31 May 2025
Toronto FC
0 – 2
Charlotte
L
13 Apr 2024
Charlotte
3 – 2
Toronto FC
L
09 Mar 2024
Toronto FC
1 – 0
Charlotte
W
TORONTO FC LAST 5 OVERALL
W D L D D
CHARLOTTE LAST 5 OVERALL
W L W D W
MATCH IMPACT Final 3–3 · result locked
TORONTO FC #11
Lost · already at 21 pts
CHARLOTTE #6
Lost · already at 29 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Houston Dynamo 20 12 2 6 +5 38
W W W W W
1 Nashville SC 20 14 4 2 +25 46
W W D L W
2 Vancouver Whitecaps 19 11 4 4 +22 37
L W D D L
2 Inter Miami 20 11 6 3 +10 39
D L D W W
3 Los Angeles FC 21 10 4 7 +14 34
L L D W W
3 Chicago Fire 19 11 2 6 +11 35
W W W L L
4 New England Revolution 20 10 3 7 +7 33
W L L D W
4 San Jose Earthquakes 20 10 3 7 +10 33
L L L D L
5 FC Dallas 20 9 6 5 +9 33
W W D L D
5 FC Cincinnati 20 8 6 6 +2 30
W D W L W
6 St. Louis City 20 8 6 6 +2 30
D W D W W
6 Charlotte 20 8 5 7 +4 29
D W L W D
7 Colorado Rapids 20 9 1 10 +5 28
W W W L W
7 New York City FC 20 7 5 8 +5 26
L L D W W
8 New York Red Bulls 20 7 4 9 -12 25
L L W L L
8 Real Salt Lake 19 8 4 7 +3 28
L D D L L
9 Portland Timbers 20 8 3 9 +1 27
W L W W D
9 DC United 20 5 9 6 -6 24
L D D W D
10 Los Angeles Galaxy 21 6 7 8 -5 25
W L D D L
10 Orlando City SC 20 6 3 11 -18 21
L D L W W
11 Minnesota United FC 20 6 7 7 -6 25
L D D D L
11 Toronto FC 20 4 9 7 -7 21
D W D L D
12 Columbus Crew 20 5 5 10 -5 20
L L D W L
12 Seattle Sounders 19 7 3 9 -5 24
L L L L L
13 San Diego 20 6 6 8 +2 24
L W D W L
13 Philadelphia Union 20 5 5 10 -7 20
D W W W W
14 Austin 20 5 5 10 -14 20
W L L L W
14 CF Montreal 20 5 5 10 -10 20
W D D L L
15 Sporting Kansas City 20 4 3 13 -30 15
D L L L W
15 Atlanta United FC 20 5 3 12 -12 18
W W L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+5
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Niklas Dorsch
  • 90'+4
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Brandt Bronico
  • 90'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Niklas Dorsch
  • 85'
    Card · Yellow Card · Matheus Pereira
  • 83'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Benjamin Kuscevic
  • 82'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Markus Cimermancic
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Pep Biel
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Idan Toklomati
  • 76'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Dániel Sallói
  • 69'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Liel Abada
  • 69'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Rodolfo Aloko
  • 60'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Alonso Coello
  • 58'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Henry Kessler
  • 56'
    Card · Red Card · Walker Zimmerman
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 2
  • 20'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Idan Toklomati
  • 13'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Markus Cimermancic
  • 8'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Rodolfo Aloko
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
TORONTO FC WIN
2.29
43.7% implied
↑ best 2.35
DRAW
3.59
27.9% implied
↑ best 3.75
CHARLOTTE WIN
2.87
34.8% implied
↑ best 3.00

Market favors Toronto FC. AI projects CHARLOTTE 95% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS CHARLOTTE 95% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.28 3.70 2.76 +58.8%
888Sport 2.20 3.60 2.75 +58.6%
Bet365 2.30 3.50 3.00 +61.7%
Betano 2.32 3.60 2.95 +61.1%
Betfair 2.30 3.75 2.80 +59.3%
BetVictor 2.30 3.60 2.80 +59.3%
Dafabet 2.32 3.60 3.00 +61.7%
Marathonbet 2.25 3.58 2.88 +60.3%
Pinnacle 2.35 3.69 2.97 +61.3%
SBO 2.31 3.44 2.73 +58.4%
Superbet 2.30 3.55 3.00 +61.7%
Unibet 2.28 3.50 2.88 +60.3%
William Hill 2.20 3.60 2.75 +58.6%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.19 U 4.53
2.5 O 1.63 U 2.25
3.5 O 2.54 U 1.49
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.53 10 bks
NO
2.38 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.81
Away -0.5 1.62
Away -0.75 1.45
Away -1 1.29
Away -1.25 1.24
Away -1.5 1.20
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.