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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 0–1 · TONDELA 74%
CONF 82 FULL ANALYSIS →
Primeira Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 32 · SUN, 03 MAY · 14:30 LOCAL
CASA PIA
16TH · 29 PTS · LAST 5:
W L L D L
FT
0 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 0-0
TONDELA
W D L L D
· 17TH · 28 PTS · LAST 5
GOALS
⚽ 68' Bebeto
Hugo Félix
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Hugo Félix
Tondela · 100 mins
· 31% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
7.9
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 4 CLIPS

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Primeira Liga: Casa Pia AC vs Tondela
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Primeira Liga: Casa Pia AC vs Tondela
Primeira Liga: Casa Pia AC vs Tondela
Primeira Liga: Casa Pia AC vs Tondela
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

0.45
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.11
48%
BALL POSSESSION %
52%
4
TOTAL SHOTS
8
3
SHOTS ON TARGET
5
74%
PASS ACCURACY %
82%
7
CORNERS
2
KEY EVENTS 24 events
  1. 49'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Jérémy Livolant
    CAS
  2. 51'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Rafael Brito
    CAS
  3. 55'
    Card · Red Card
    Cassiano
    CAS
  4. 57'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Joao Marques · assist Dailon Rocha Livramento
    CAS
  5. 58'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Rafael Brito · assist Lawrence Ofori
    CAS
  6. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Cicero · assist Bebeto
    TON
  7. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Tiago Manso · assist Hélder Tavares
    TON
  8. 65'
    Card · Yellow Card
    André Geraldes
    CAS
  9. 68'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Bebeto
    TON
  10. 70'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Maranhão
    TON
  11. 72'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    André Geraldes · assist Tiago Morais
    CAS
  12. 75'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Christian Marques
    TON
  13. 85'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Tiago Morais
    CAS
  14. 86'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Maranhão · assist Siphephelo Sithole
    TON
  15. 86'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Abdu Conté · assist Kiki Silva
    CAS
  16. 86'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Gaizka Larrazabal · assist Kevin Prieto
    CAS
  17. 87'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Rony Lopes · assist Arjen Van Der Heide
    TON
  18. 90'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Iyad Mohamed
    CAS
  19. 90'+5
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Makan Aïko · assist Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka
    TON
  20. 90'+8
    Card · Yellow Card
    João Goulart
    CAS
  21. 90'+9
    Card · Yellow Card
    Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka
    TON
  22. 90'+9
    Card · Yellow Card
    Kevin Prieto
    CAS
  23. 90'+11
    Card · Yellow Card
    CAS
  24. 90'+11
    Card · Red Card
    CAS
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
CASA PIA AVG 7.1
TONDELA AVG 7.4
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
0.5
xG
1.1
4.0
TOTAL SHOTS
8.0
3.0
ON TARGET
5.0
0.0
OFF TARGET
3.0
1.0
BLOCKED
0.0
POSSESSION
48.0%
POSSESSION %
52.0%
352.0
PASSES
402.0
74.0%
PASS ACCURACY
82.0%
SET PIECES
7.0
CORNERS
2.0
1.0
OFFSIDES
2.0
DISCIPLINE
21.0
FOULS
19.0
7.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
1.0
RED CARDS
0.0
5.0
GK SAVES
3.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
CASA PIA 1 shots
Jérémy Livolant
1/1
TONDELA 3 shots
Hugo Félix
1/2
Tiago Manso
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 0.45 – 1.11
0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 1.1 0.0 HT 68' H 0.45 A 1.11 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 63%
37% A
15
EVENTS LOGGED
9
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-4-3 vs 4-2-3-1
3-4-3
4-2-3-1
7.5
1
PATRICK S
43
DAVID SOU
18
ANDRé GER
4
JOãO GOUL
 7.2
5
ABDU CONT
8
RAFAEL BR
24
IYAD MOHA
72
GAIZKA LA
 6.9
11
JOAO MARQ
90
CASSIANO
 7.2
29
JéRéMY LI
 7.7
31
BERNARDO
27
RODRIGO C
4
CHRISTIAN
 7.2
44
JOãO SILV
 7.2
48
TIAGO MAN
 7.0
32
JUAN RODR
97
CICERO
90
MAKAN AïK
 7.9
79
HUGO FéLI
7
MARANHãO
16
RONY LOPE
SUBSTITUTES · CASA PIA
10
Dailon Rocha...
F
99
Claudio Mend...
F
21
Tiago Morais
F
19
Kevin Prieto
F
42
Sebastián Pé...
M
80
Lawrence Ofo...
M
3
Domingos Jos...
D
95
Ivan Mandić
G
32
Kiki Silva
F
COACH: Alvaro Pacheco
SUBSTITUTES · TONDELA
26
Arjen Van De...
F
23
Benjamin Mbu...
F
10
Joe Hodge
M
8
Hélder Tavar...
M
15
Siphephelo S...
M
5
João Afonso
D
2
Bebeto
D
1
Gabriel Souz...
G
29
Jordan Sieba...
F
COACH: Cristiano Bacci
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
CAS · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

TON · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
A. Narciso
—
CAS MANAGER
Alvaro Pacheco
head coach
TON MANAGER
Cristiano Bacci
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
1
CAS WINS
0
DRAWS
0
TON WINS
100%
2 – 1
TOTAL GOALS · 1 MEETINGS
3.00
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 1 / 1
21 Dec 2025
Tondela
1 – 2
Casa Pia
W
CASA PIA LAST 5 OVERALL
W L L D L
TONDELA LAST 5 OVERALL
W D L L D
MATCH IMPACT Final 0–1 · result locked
CASA PIA #16
Lost · already at 29 pts
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
TONDELA #17
Won · already at 28 pts
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 FC Porto 33 27 4 2 +47 85
L W W W W
2 Sporting CP 33 24 7 2 +62 79
W W D D L
3 Benfica 33 22 11 0 +47 77
D D W W W
4 SC Braga 33 16 10 7 +28 58
D D L W D
5 Famalicao 33 14 11 8 +12 53
D D W D D
6 GIL Vicente 33 13 11 9 +12 50
L D W L D
7 Moreirense 33 12 6 15 -12 42
L W L W D
8 Guimaraes 33 12 6 15 -10 42
L L W W D
9 Estoril 33 10 9 14 -1 39
D D L L L
10 Arouca 33 11 6 16 -19 39
W D L W L
11 Alverca 33 10 9 14 -16 39
D L W L W
12 Santa Clara 33 9 9 15 -8 36
W D W D L
13 Rio Ave 33 8 11 14 -22 35
L D L D W
14 Nacional 33 8 7 18 -10 31
L L W W L
15 Estrela 33 6 11 16 -18 29
D L L L L
16 Casa Pia 33 6 11 16 -26 29
W L L L D
17 Tondela 33 6 10 17 -26 28
W W D L L
18 AVS 33 3 11 19 -40 20
W W D D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+11
    Card · Red Card
  • 90'+11
    Card · Yellow Card
  • 90'+9
    Card · Yellow Card · Kevin Prieto
  • 90'+9
    Card · Yellow Card · Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka
  • 90'+8
    Card · Yellow Card · João Goulart
  • 90'+5
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Makan Aïko
  • 90'
    Card · Yellow Card · Iyad Mohamed
    misses next match
  • 87'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Rony Lopes
  • 86'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Gaizka Larrazabal
  • 86'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Abdu Conté
  • 86'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Maranhão
  • 85'
    Card · Yellow Card · Tiago Morais
  • 75'
    Card · Yellow Card · Christian Marques
  • 72'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · André Geraldes
  • 70'
    Card · Yellow Card · Maranhão
  • 68'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Bebeto
  • 65'
    Card · Yellow Card · André Geraldes
    misses next match
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Tiago Manso
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Cicero
  • 58'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Rafael Brito
  • 57'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Joao Marques
  • 55'
    Card · Red Card · Cassiano
  • 51'
    Card · Yellow Card · Rafael Brito
    misses next match
  • 49'
    Card · Yellow Card · Jérémy Livolant
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
CASA PIA WIN
2.31
43.3% implied
↑ best 2.39
DRAW
3.12
32.1% implied
↑ best 3.30
TONDELA WIN
3.24
30.9% implied
↑ best 3.43

Market favors Casa Pia. AI projects TONDELA 74%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS TONDELA 74% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.28 3.15 3.20 +42.8%
1xBet 2.39 3.16 3.37 +44.3%
Bet365 2.30 3.10 3.30 +43.7%
Betano 2.32 3.15 3.30 +43.7%
Betfair 2.30 3.20 3.20 +42.8%
BetVictor 2.20 3.10 3.10 +41.7%
Dafabet 2.33 3.30 3.25 +43.2%
Marathonbet 2.30 3.04 3.24 +43.1%
Pinnacle 2.38 3.10 3.43 +44.8%
SBO 2.23 3.02 3.23 +43.0%
Unibet 2.38 3.10 3.05 +41.2%
William Hill 2.25 3.00 3.20 +42.8%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.38 U 2.88
2.5 O 2.22 U 1.64
3.5 O 4.06 U 1.21
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.88 9 bks
NO
1.83 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.85
Away -0.5 1.61
Away -0.75 1.42
Away -1 1.25
Away -1.25 1.19
Away -1.5 1.15
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.