GOALSENSE
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Championship · REGULAR SEASON - 1 · SAT, 15 AUG · 14:00 LOCAL
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CHARLTON
49'
0 – 1
DERBY
⚽ 61' Lloyd Jones ⚽ 80' T. Campbell
GOALS
⚽ 23' Sammie Szmodics
CLAUDE AI · BLENDED FROM 4 MODELS
LIVE-ADJUSTED
CONF 62/100 MED
🔮 PREDICTED FULL-TIME SCORE
CHA
0 – 1
DER
most likely scoreline · 16.3% probability
AI PICKS DERBY TO WIN 47%
LIVE · 49' 0 – 1
→
🤖 AI PROJECTS FT 0 – 1
🤖 AI BREAKDOWN

HOW AI SEES THE MATCH

LIVE-ADJUSTED
CHA WIN 25%
DRAW 28%
DER WIN 47%
h + d + a = 100% · stacked share
💰 AI BETTING TIP
DOUBLE CHANCE — X2

Tight 1X2 — single-side too risky. Double chance covers 75% of outcomes with smaller payout.

CONF 75% avoid: 1X2 single 4 models
🤖 AI ANALYSIS

Derby leading 1-0 at HT with Charlton's poor home form (WLLLL); away win favoured.

🤖 AI REASONING why AI picked this
WHY CHARLTON CHALLENGED
25%
Charlton's home form catastrophic (1W-4L in last 5 at Valley)
+20.0%
WHY DERBY FAVORED
47%
Derby 1-goal lead at 46' — low-scoring pattern typical in this matchup
+25.0%
Derby's away record mixed (1W-3L) but H2H shows Derby slight edge (3W-1D-1L in last 5)
+15.0%
🤖 AI LIVE TIMELINE

PROBABILITY TIMELINE

How AI re-projects after each event
H DRAW A
100% 50% 0% KO 15' 30' HT 60' 75' FT ⚽ 23' SAMMIE SZM ⚽ 61' LLOYD JONE ⚽ 80' T. CAMPBEL 49' PROJECTION
Probabilities re-blended at each event · 3 events marked → Derived from goal events + remaining time
🤖 AI SCORE MATRIX

SCORELINE PROBABILITY

All possible scorelines · Poisson from xG
0% 16.3%+
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
15.0
16.3
8.9
3.2
0.9
0.2
·
1
12.1
13.2
7.2
2.6
0.7
0.2
·
2
4.9
5.4
2.9
1.1
0.3
0.1
·
3
1.3
1.4
0.8
0.3
0.1
·
·
4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
·
·
·
5
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
6+
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
MOST LIKELY · TOP 5
0 — 1 16.3%
0 — 0 15.0%
1 — 1 13.2%
1 — 0 12.1%
0 — 2 8.9%
Top 5 = 65.5% · rest 34.5%
🤖 AI VALUE FINDER

VALUE BETS

Where AI sees an edge vs bookmaker odds
8 markets · pre-match avg odds
MARKETODDSAI PROBFAIREDGE
AWAY to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.65
47.0%
2.13
+24.3%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.43
75.0%
1.33
+7.4%
HOME or AWAY (12)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.33
72.0%
1.39
-4.0%
—
Draw
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
3.13
28.0%
3.57
-12.4%
—
HOME or Draw (1X)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.44
53.0%
1.89
-23.5%
—
HOME to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.71
25.0%
4.00
-32.3%
—
Both Teams Score — YES
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.82
22.0%
4.55
-59.9%
—
Over 2.5 Goals
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.15
18.0%
5.56
-61.3%
—
⚠ 18+ only. Odds change frequently. AI predictions are not guarantees. Bet responsibly.