GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 0–1 · DERBY 47%
CONF 62 FULL ANALYSIS →
Championship · REGULAR SEASON - 1 · SAT, 15 AUG · 14:00 LOCAL
CHARLTON
19TH · 53 PTS · LAST 5:
L W L D L
49'
0 – 1
HT · 0-1
DERBY
L W L W L
· 8TH · 69 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 61' Lloyd Jones ⚽ 80' T. Campbell
GOALS
⚽ 23' Sammie Szmodics
PREDICTIONS
⚡ LIVE TRACKER

Last action · Derby · 90'

LIVE
DERBY CHARLTON

Last event marker · ball-position telemetry not available for this league

📈 MOMENTUM · ATTACK WAVE

Last 30 minutes · who has the upper hand

CHARLTON DERBY
⚽ 23' CHARLTON DERBY 19' 34' 49'
Event density · 3-min buckets
📊 LIVE STATS

Updates every refresh · Minute 49'

1.07
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.01
45%
BALL POSSESSION %
55%
13
TOTAL SHOTS
15
4
SHOTS ON TARGET
4
76%
PASS ACCURACY %
76%
5
CORNERS
4
KEY EVENTS 16 events
  1. 23'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Sammie Szmodics · assist Carlton Morris
    DER
  2. 54'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Sammie Szmodics · assist Alex Mowatt
    DER
  3. 59'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Sonny Carey · assist Millenic Alli
    CHA
  4. 59'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Matt Godden · assist Miles Leaburn
    CHA
  5. 60'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Sondre Langås
    DER
  6. 61'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Lloyd Jones · assist Karlan Grant
    CHA
  7. 73'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Karlan Grant · assist Joe Rankin-Costello
    CHA
  8. 80'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    T. Campbell
    CHA
  9. 83'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Oscar Fraulo · assist Corey Blackett-Taylor
    DER
  10. 83'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Craig Forsyth · assist Rhian Brewster
    DER
  11. 84'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Joe Ward · assist Max Johnston
    DER
  12. 84'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Lewis Travis · assist Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
    DER
  13. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Nathaniel Chalobah · assist Collins Sichenje
    CHA
  14. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Danny McNamara · assist Ivan Mesík
    CHA
  15. 90'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Alex Mowatt
    DER
  16. 90'+8
    Card · Yellow Card
    Rhian Brewster
    DER
LIVE STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.1
xG
1.0
13.0
TOTAL SHOTS
15.0
4.0
ON TARGET
4.0
4.0
OFF TARGET
5.0
5.0
BLOCKED
6.0
POSSESSION
45.0%
POSSESSION %
55.0%
368.0
PASSES
461.0
76.0%
PASS ACCURACY
76.0%
SET PIECES
5.0
CORNERS
4.0
0.0
OFFSIDES
1.0
DISCIPLINE
7.0
FOULS
15.0
0.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
3.0
GK SAVES
2.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
CHARLTON 5 shots
Tyreece Campbell
2/2
Lloyd Jones
1/1
Nathaniel Chalobah
0/1
Karlan Grant
1/1
DERBY 3 shots
Sammie Szmodics
2/3
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.07 – 1.01
0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.1 0.0 HT 61' 80' 23' H 1.07 A 1.01 KO 30' 60' 49'

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 44%
56% A
7
EVENTS LOGGED
9
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 5-3-2
4-2-3-1
5-3-2
25
WILLIAM M
17
AMARI'I B
12
BILLY KOU
 7.6
5
LLOYD JON
20
DANNY MCN
 7.3
15
NATHANIEL
 7.2
6
CONOR COV
 7.3
9
KARLAN GR
14
SONNY CAR
 7.7
7
TYREECE C
24
MATT GODD
1
JACOB WID
18
CHARLIE T
 6.9
3
CRAIG FOR
28
DION SAND
6
SONDRE LA
23
JOE WARD
8
BOBBY CLA
 7.3
27
LEWIS TRA
29
OSCAR FRA
 7.6
11
SAMMIE SZ
9
CARLTON M
SUBSTITUTES · CHARLTON
26
Joe Rankin-C...
M
8
Harvey Knibb...
M
32
Alan Nwamba
D
28
Collins Sich...
D
18
Ivan Mesík
D
21
Tiernan Broo...
G
11
Miles Leabur...
F
19
Millenic All...
F
30
Robert Apter
M
COACH: Nathan Jones
SUBSTITUTES · DERBY
15
Lars-Jørgen...
F
13
Filip Bilbij...
M
33
Corey Blacke...
F
37
Owen Eames
M
24
Ryan Nyambe
D
22
Max Johnston
D
31
Josh Vickers
G
20
Alex Mowatt
M
10
Rhian Brewst...
F
COACH: John Eustace
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
CHA · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

DER · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Benjamin Speedie, England
—
CHA MANAGER
Nathan Jones
head coach
DER MANAGER
John Eustace
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
3
CHA WINS
2
DRAWS
5
DER WINS
30%
20%
50%
10 – 11
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.10
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
20 Jan 2026
Charlton
1 – 2
Derby
L
30 Sep 2025
Derby
1 – 1
Charlton
D
30 Dec 2019
Derby
2 – 1
Charlton
L
19 Oct 2019
Charlton
3 – 0
Derby
W
16 Apr 2016
Charlton
0 – 1
Derby
L
CHARLTON LAST 5 OVERALL
L W L D L
DERBY LAST 5 OVERALL
L W L W L
LIVE IMPACT Currently 0–1 · scenario projection
CHARLTON #19
If loss holds: 53 pts
DERBY #8
If win holds: 72 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Coventry 46 28 11 7 +52 95
W W W D D
2 Ipswich 46 23 15 8 +33 84
W D D W D
3 Millwall 46 24 11 11 +15 83
L D W D W
4 Southampton 46 22 14 10 +26 80
W D W D D
5 Middlesbrough 46 22 14 10 +25 80
L L D D W
6 Hull City 46 21 10 15 +4 73
W W D W L
7 Wrexham 46 19 14 13 +4 71
D L W W L
8 Derby 46 20 9 17 +8 69
L W L W L
9 Norwich 46 19 8 19 +7 65
L D W W L
10 Birmingham 46 17 13 16 +1 64
D W W D W
11 Swansea 46 18 10 18 -2 64
W D W L W
12 Bristol City 46 17 11 18 0 62
W L D L D
13 Sheffield Utd 46 18 6 22 0 60
W L L W W
14 Preston 46 15 15 16 -7 60
L W L L W
15 QPR 46 16 10 20 -12 58
L L L L D
16 Watford 46 14 15 17 -12 57
L L L L L
17 Stoke City 46 15 10 21 -5 55
L L L L D
18 Portsmouth 46 14 13 19 -15 55
D W L W W
19 Charlton 46 13 14 19 -14 53
L W L D L
20 Blackburn 46 13 13 20 -14 52
L W D L D
21 West Brom 46 13 14 19 -10 51
L D W W D
22 Oxford United 46 11 14 21 -14 47
L W L L W
23 Leicester 46 12 16 18 -10 46
W D D L L
24 Sheffield Wednesday 46 2 12 32 -60 0
W L L D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
LIVE COMMENTARY LIVE
  • 90'+8
    Card · Yellow Card · Rhian Brewster
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 90'
    Card · Yellow Card · Alex Mowatt
    Foul
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Danny McNamara
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Nathaniel Chalobah
  • 84'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Lewis Travis
  • 84'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Joe Ward
  • 83'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Craig Forsyth
  • 83'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Oscar Fraulo
  • 80'
    Goal · Normal Goal · T. Campbell
  • 73'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Karlan Grant
  • 61'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Lloyd Jones
  • 60'
    Card · Yellow Card · Sondre Langås
    Foul
  • 59'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Matt Godden
  • 59'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Sonny Carey
  • 54'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Sammie Szmodics
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 1
  • 23'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Sammie Szmodics
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
CHARLTON WIN
2.71
36.9% implied
↑ best 2.83
DRAW
3.13
31.9% implied
↑ best 3.25
DERBY WIN
2.65
37.7% implied
↑ best 2.76

Market favors Derby. AI projects DERBY 47%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS DERBY 47% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.66 3.15 2.66 +9.4%
1xBet 2.68 3.12 2.64 +9.1%
888Sport 2.70 3.00 2.60 +8.5%
Bet365 2.80 3.10 2.62 +8.8%
Betano 2.75 3.15 2.72 +10.2%
Betfair 2.75 3.10 2.63 +9.0%
BetVictor 2.70 3.25 2.63 +9.0%
Dafabet 2.75 3.25 2.70 +10.0%
Marathonbet 2.68 3.12 2.64 +9.1%
Pinnacle 2.83 3.15 2.76 +10.8%
SBO 2.65 3.11 2.54 +7.6%
Unibet 2.65 3.15 2.63 +9.0%
William Hill 2.62 3.00 2.62 +8.8%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.36 U 2.99
2.5 O 2.15 U 1.68
3.5 O 3.83 U 1.24
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.82 10 bks
NO
1.89 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.61
Away -0.5 1.46
Away -0.75 1.31
Away -1 1.15
Away -1.25 1.12
Away -1.5 1.10
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.