GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · WATFORD 38%
CONF 42 FULL ANALYSIS →
Championship · REGULAR SEASON - 1 · SUN, 16 AUG · 12:30 LOCAL
WATFORD
16TH · 57 PTS · LAST 5:
L L L L L
90'
2 – 1
HT · 2-0
SOUTHAMPTON
W D W D D
· 4TH · 80 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 12' Iker Bravo ⚽ 29' Amin Nabizada
GOALS
⚽ 56' Cyle Larin
PREDICTIONS
⚡ LIVE TRACKER

Last action · Southampton · 89'

LIVE
SOUTHAMP WATFORD

Last event marker · ball-position telemetry not available for this league

📈 MOMENTUM · ATTACK WAVE

Last 30 minutes · who has the upper hand

WATFORD SOUTHAMP
WATFORD SOUTHAMPTO 60' 75' 90'
Event density · 3-min buckets
📊 LIVE STATS

Updates every refresh · Minute 90'

0.83
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.17
35%
BALL POSSESSION %
65%
16
TOTAL SHOTS
16
4
SHOTS ON TARGET
3
78%
PASS ACCURACY %
88%
4
CORNERS
4
KEY EVENTS 21 events
  1. 8'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Hector Kyprianou
    WAT
  2. 12'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Iker Bravo
    WAT
  3. 13'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Matthew Pollock
    WAT
  4. 14'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Cyle Larin
    SOU
  5. 18'
    Card · Yellow Card
    James Bree
    SOU
  6. 24'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Marc Bola · assist Jordan Zemura
    WAT
  7. 29'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Amin Nabizada
    WAT
  8. 43'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Amin Nabizada
    WAT
  9. 56'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Cyle Larin · assist Cameron Bragg
    SOU
  10. 57'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Lewis Dobbin · assist Finn Azaz
    SOU
  11. 61'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Edoardo Bove · assist Edo Kayembe
    WAT
  12. 61'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Amin Nabizada · assist Michael Adu-Poku
    WAT
  13. 61'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Iker Bravo · assist Martín Payero
    WAT
  14. 70'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Cyle Larin · assist Divin Mubama
    SOU
  15. 70'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Cameron Bragg · assist Samuel Edozie
    SOU
  16. 72'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Mamadou Doumbia
    WAT
  17. 74'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Flynn Downes
    SOU
  18. 74'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Othmane Maamma
    WAT
  19. 77'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Othmane Maamma · assist Rocco Vata
    WAT
  20. 84'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Martín Payero
    WAT
  21. 89'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Kuryu Matsuki · assist Ben Brereton Díaz
    SOU
LIVE STATS H vs A
ATTACK
0.8
xG
1.2
16.0
TOTAL SHOTS
16.0
4.0
ON TARGET
3.0
5.0
OFF TARGET
7.0
7.0
BLOCKED
6.0
POSSESSION
35.0%
POSSESSION %
65.0%
259.0
PASSES
493.0
78.0%
PASS ACCURACY
88.0%
SET PIECES
4.0
CORNERS
4.0
0.0
OFFSIDES
3.0
DISCIPLINE
12.0
FOULS
8.0
6.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
2.0
GK SAVES
2.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
WATFORD 4 shots
Iker Bravo
1/1
Amin Nabizada
1/1
Othmane Maamma
1/1
Hector Kyprianou
0/1
SOUTHAMPTON 5 shots
Cyle Larin
2/3
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
0/1
Ryan Manning
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 0.83 – 1.17
0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 1.2 0.0 HT 12' 29' 56' H 0.83 A 1.17 KO 30' 60' 90'

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 62%
38% A
13
EVENTS LOGGED
8
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
7.2
1
FEDERICO
16
MARC BOLA
4
KéVIN KEB
6
MATTHEW P
23
OMAR HAKT
 6.9
5
HECTOR KY
8
EDOARDO B
 7.0
7
OTHMANE M
 7.9
17
IKER BRAV
 7.3
21
AMIN NABI
20
MAMADOU D
1
DANIEL PE
 7.2
3
RYAN MANN
5
JACK STEP
 7.5
6
TAYLOR HA
14
JAMES BRE
 7.2
4
FLYNN DOW
 7.2
26
CAMERON B
11
LEWIS DOB
7
LEO SCIEN
27
KURYU MAT
 7.7
9
CYLE LARI
SUBSTITUTES · WATFORD
9
Luca Kjerrum...
F
22
Martín Payer...
M
39
Edo Kayembe
M
49
Michael Adu-...
F
56
Albert Eames
D
53
James Clarri...
D
26
Daniel Bachm...
G
33
Jordan Zemur...
D
11
Rocco Vata
F
COACH: Alessio Dionisi
SUBSTITUTES · SOUTHAMPTON
19
Cameron Arch...
F
23
Samuel Edozi...
M
22
Ben Brereton...
F
18
Tom Fellows
M
10
Finn Azaz
M
34
Welington
D
15
Nathan Wood
D
25
George Long
G
28
Divin Mubama
F
COACH: Tonda Eckert
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
WAT · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

SOU · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Matt Donohue, England
—
WAT MANAGER
Alessio Dionisi
head coach
SOU MANAGER
Tonda Eckert
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
1
WAT WINS
4
DRAWS
5
SOU WINS
10%
40%
50%
9 – 16
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.50
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
07 Feb 2026
Southampton
1 – 0
Watford
L
30 Aug 2025
Watford
2 – 2
Southampton
D
13 Apr 2024
Southampton
3 – 2
Watford
L
09 Dec 2023
Watford
1 – 1
Southampton
D
13 Mar 2022
Southampton
1 – 2
Watford
W
WATFORD LAST 5 OVERALL
L L L L L
SOUTHAMPTON LAST 5 OVERALL
W D W D D
LIVE IMPACT Currently 2–1 · scenario projection
WATFORD #16
If win holds: 60 pts
SOUTHAMPTON #4
If loss holds: 80 pts
Promotion Playoffs
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Coventry 46 28 11 7 +52 95
W W W D D
2 Ipswich 46 23 15 8 +33 84
W D D W D
3 Millwall 46 24 11 11 +15 83
L D W D W
4 Southampton 46 22 14 10 +26 80
W D W D D
5 Middlesbrough 46 22 14 10 +25 80
L L D D W
6 Hull City 46 21 10 15 +4 73
W W D W L
7 Wrexham 46 19 14 13 +4 71
D L W W L
8 Derby 46 20 9 17 +8 69
L W L W L
9 Norwich 46 19 8 19 +7 65
L D W W L
10 Birmingham 46 17 13 16 +1 64
D W W D W
11 Swansea 46 18 10 18 -2 64
W D W L W
12 Bristol City 46 17 11 18 0 62
W L D L D
13 Sheffield Utd 46 18 6 22 0 60
W L L W W
14 Preston 46 15 15 16 -7 60
L W L L W
15 QPR 46 16 10 20 -12 58
L L L L D
16 Watford 46 14 15 17 -12 57
L L L L L
17 Stoke City 46 15 10 21 -5 55
L L L L D
18 Portsmouth 46 14 13 19 -15 55
D W L W W
19 Charlton 46 13 14 19 -14 53
L W L D L
20 Blackburn 46 13 13 20 -14 52
L W D L D
21 West Brom 46 13 14 19 -10 51
L D W W D
22 Oxford United 46 11 14 21 -14 47
L W L L W
23 Leicester 46 12 16 18 -10 46
W D D L L
24 Sheffield Wednesday 46 2 12 32 -60 0
W L L D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
LIVE COMMENTARY LIVE
  • 89'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Kuryu Matsuki
  • 84'
    Card · Yellow Card · Martín Payero
    Foul
  • 77'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Othmane Maamma
  • 74'
    Card · Yellow Card · Othmane Maamma
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 74'
    Card · Yellow Card · Flynn Downes
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 72'
    Card · Yellow Card · Mamadou Doumbia
    Foul
  • 70'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Cameron Bragg
  • 70'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Cyle Larin
  • 61'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Iker Bravo
  • 61'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Amin Nabizada
  • 61'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Edoardo Bove
  • 57'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Lewis Dobbin
  • 56'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Cyle Larin
  • HALF TIME · 2 – 0
  • 43'
    Card · Yellow Card · Amin Nabizada
    Foul
  • 29'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Amin Nabizada
  • 24'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Marc Bola
  • 18'
    Card · Yellow Card · James Bree
    Foul
  • 14'
    Card · Yellow Card · Cyle Larin
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 13'
    Card · Yellow Card · Matthew Pollock
    Foul
  • 12'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Iker Bravo
  • 8'
    Card · Yellow Card · Hector Kyprianou
    Foul
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
WATFORD WIN
3.57
28% implied
↑ best 3.80
DRAW
3.54
28.2% implied
↑ best 3.70
SOUTHAMPTON WIN
1.98
50.5% implied
↑ best 2.12

Market favors Southampton. AI projects WATFORD 38%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS WATFORD 38% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 3.15 3.55 2.12 +6.8%
1xBet 3.64 3.60 1.94 +10.5%
888Sport 3.60 3.40 1.95 +10.2%
Bet365 3.80 3.60 1.91 +11.7%
Betano 3.60 3.70 2.00 +10.2%
Betfair 3.80 3.50 1.95 +11.7%
BetVictor 3.70 3.70 1.93 +11.0%
Dafabet 3.75 3.70 1.99 +11.3%
Marathonbet 3.65 3.60 1.92 +10.6%
Pinnacle 3.71 3.65 2.04 +11.0%
SBO 2.98 3.15 2.09 +4.4%
Unibet 3.45 3.50 2.00 +9.0%
William Hill 3.60 3.40 1.95 +10.2%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.21 U 4.06
2.5 O 1.71 U 2.11
3.5 O 2.74 U 1.42
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.60 10 bks
NO
2.22 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.34
Away -0.5 1.30
Away -0.75 1.17
Away -1 1.06
Away -1.25 1.05
Away -1.5 1.05
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.