GOALSENSE
SIGN IN
AI PREDICTION Projects FT 2–1 · VILLARREAL 58% · Value: Over 2.5 64%
CONF 56 FULL ANALYSIS →
La Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 32 · SUN, 26 APR · 19:00 LOCAL
VILLARREAL
3RD · 72 PTS · LAST 5:
W L L D W
FT
2 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 2-0
CELTA VIGO
W D L W W
· 6TH · 54 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 2' Gerard Moreno (P) ⚽ 29' Nicolas Pépé
GOALS
⚽ 73' Borja Iglesias (P)
Nicolas Pépé
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Nicolas Pépé
Villarreal · 78 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 30% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
7.9
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.67
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
2.08
48%
BALL POSSESSION %
52%
12
TOTAL SHOTS
9
4
SHOTS ON TARGET
3
90%
PASS ACCURACY %
89%
7
CORNERS
4
KEY EVENTS 21 events
  1. 2'
    Goal · Penalty
    Gerard Moreno
    VIL
  2. 14'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Marcos Alonso
    CEL
  3. 18'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Pedraza
    VIL
  4. 29'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Nicolas Pépé · assist Pedraza
    VIL
  5. 29'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Ionuț Radu
    CEL
  6. 42'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Nicolas Pépé
    VIL
  7. 45'+3
    Card · Yellow Card
    Pablo Durán
    CEL
  8. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Pablo Durán · assist Ferran Jutglà
    CEL
  9. 70'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Pape Gueye
    VIL
  10. 73'
    Goal · Penalty
    Borja Iglesias
    CEL
  11. 74'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Borja Iglesias
    CEL
  12. 76'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Marcos Alonso · assist Iago Aspas
    CEL
  13. 76'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Hugo Sotelo · assist Fer López
    CEL
  14. 76'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Hugo Álvarez · assist Alvaro Núñez
    CEL
  15. 78'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Pape Gueye · assist Dani Parejo
    VIL
  16. 78'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Nicolas Pépé · assist Alfon González
    VIL
  17. 78'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Pedraza · assist Sergi Cardona
    VIL
  18. 83'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Borja Iglesias · assist Hugo González
    CEL
  19. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Georges Mikautadze · assist Ayoze Pérez
    VIL
  20. 90'+2
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Alberto Moleiro · assist Thomas Partey
    VIL
  21. 90'+4
    Card · Yellow Card
    Ilaix Moriba
    CEL
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
VILLARREAL AVG 7.4
CELTA VIGO AVG 7.1
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.7
xG
2.1
12.0
TOTAL SHOTS
9.0
4.0
ON TARGET
3.0
5.0
OFF TARGET
4.0
3.0
BLOCKED
2.0
POSSESSION
48.0%
POSSESSION %
52.0%
459.0
PASSES
504.0
90.0%
PASS ACCURACY
89.0%
SET PIECES
7.0
CORNERS
4.0
1.0
OFFSIDES
2.0
DISCIPLINE
13.0
FOULS
14.0
3.0
YELLOW CARDS
4.0
2.0
GK SAVES
2.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
VILLARREAL 2 shots
Nicolas Pépé
1/1
Gerard Moreno
1/1
CELTA VIGO 2 shots
Borja Iglesias
1/1
Iago Aspas
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.67 – 2.08
1.7 1.2 0.8 0.4 2.1 0.0 HT 2' 29' 73' H 1.67 A 2.08 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 48%
52% A
10
EVENTS LOGGED
11
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-4-2 vs 3-4-2-1
4-4-2
3-4-2-1
25
ARNAU TEN
24
PEDRAZA
 7.5
12
RENATO VE
4
RAFA MARí
 7.3
3
ALEXANDER
 7.3
20
ALBERTO M
18
PAPE GUEY
14
SANTI COM
 7.9
19
NICOLAS P
9
GEORGES M
 7.2
7
GERARD MO
13
IONUț RAD
 6.9
20
MARCOS AL
 6.7
29
YOEL LAGO
32
JAVI RODR
5
SERGIO CA
6
ILAIX MOR
22
HUGO SOTE
 7.5
3
ÓSCAR MIN
23
HUGO ÁLVA
18
PABLO DUR
 7.7
7
BORJA IGL
SUBSTITUTES · VILLARREAL
10
Dani Parejo
M
11
Alfon Gonzál...
F
21
T. Oluwaseyi
F
22
Ayoze Pérez
F
16
Thomas Parte...
M
23
Sergi Cardon...
D
2
Logan Costa
D
5
Willy Kambwa...
D
6
Pau Navarro
D
1
Luiz Júnior
G
32
Hugo Lopez
F
COACH: Marcelino
SUBSTITUTES · CELTA VIGO
36
Andrés Antañ...
M
30
Hugo Gonzále...
F
39
Jones El-Abd...
F
9
Ferran Jutgl...
F
8
Fer López
M
17
Javier Rueda
D
21
Mihailo Rist...
D
24
Carlos Domín...
D
12
Manu Fernánd...
D
14
Alvaro Núñez
D
1
Iván Villar
G
10
Iago Aspas
F
COACH: Claudio Giraldez
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
VIL · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

CEL · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
A. Quintero
—
VIL MANAGER
Marcelino
head coach
CEL MANAGER
Claudio Giraldez
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
4
VIL WINS
3
DRAWS
3
CEL WINS
40%
30%
30%
18 – 19
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
3.70
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
31 Aug 2025
Celta Vigo
1 – 1
Villarreal
D
23 Apr 2025
Celta Vigo
3 – 0
Villarreal
L
26 Aug 2024
Villarreal
4 – 3
Celta Vigo
W
05 May 2024
Celta Vigo
3 – 2
Villarreal
L
20 Dec 2023
Villarreal
3 – 2
Celta Vigo
W
VILLARREAL LAST 5 OVERALL
W L L D W
CELTA VIGO LAST 5 OVERALL
W D L W W
MATCH IMPACT Final 2–1 · result locked
VILLARREAL #3
Won · already at 72 pts
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
CELTA VIGO #6
Lost · already at 54 pts
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Barcelona 38 31 1 6 +59 94
L W L W W
2 Real Madrid 38 27 5 6 +42 86
W W W L W
3 Villarreal 38 22 6 10 +26 72
W L L D W
4 Atletico Madrid 38 21 6 11 +18 69
L W W L W
5 Real Betis 38 15 15 8 +11 60
W L W D W
6 Celta Vigo 38 14 12 12 +5 54
W D L W W
7 Getafe 38 15 6 17 -6 51
W L W D L
8 Rayo Vallecano 38 12 14 12 -3 50
W W D D W
9 Valencia 38 13 10 15 -9 49
W W D W L
10 Real Sociedad 38 11 13 14 -2 46
D L D D L
11 Espanyol 38 12 10 16 -12 46
D W W L L
12 Athletic Club 38 13 6 19 -15 45
L D L L W
13 Sevilla 38 12 7 19 -14 43
L L W W W
14 Alaves 38 11 10 17 -12 43
L W W D L
15 Elche 38 10 13 15 -8 43
D W L D L
16 Levante 38 11 9 18 -14 42
L W W W L
17 Osasuna 38 11 9 18 -6 42
L L L L L
18 Mallorca 38 11 9 18 -10 42
W L L D W
19 Girona 38 9 14 15 -16 41
D L D D L
20 Oviedo 38 6 11 21 -34 29
L L L D L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+4
    Card · Yellow Card · Ilaix Moriba
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 90'+2
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Alberto Moleiro
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Georges Mikautadze
  • 83'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Borja Iglesias
  • 78'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Pedraza
  • 78'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Nicolas Pépé
  • 78'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Pape Gueye
  • 76'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Hugo Álvarez
  • 76'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Hugo Sotelo
  • 76'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Marcos Alonso
  • 74'
    Card · Yellow Card · Borja Iglesias
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 73'
    Goal · Penalty · Borja Iglesias
  • 70'
    Card · Yellow Card · Pape Gueye
    Foul
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Pablo Durán
  • HALF TIME · 2 – 0
  • 45'+3
    Card · Yellow Card · Pablo Durán
    Holding
  • 42'
    Card · Yellow Card · Nicolas Pépé
    Foul
  • 29'
    Card · Yellow Card · Ionuț Radu
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 29'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Nicolas Pépé
  • 18'
    Card · Yellow Card · Pedraza
    Roughing
  • 14'
    Card · Yellow Card · Marcos Alonso
    Tripping
  • 2'
    Goal · Penalty · Gerard Moreno
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
VILLARREAL WIN
1.93
51.8% implied
↑ best 1.98
DRAW
3.60
27.8% implied
↑ best 3.75
CELTA VIGO WIN
3.91
25.6% implied
↑ best 4.12

Market favors Villarreal. AI projects VILLARREAL 58% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS VILLARREAL 58% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.90 3.60 3.75 +5.4%
1xBet 1.98 3.74 4.12 +7.5%
888Sport 1.91 3.40 3.80 +5.6%
Bet365 1.91 3.60 3.90 +5.6%
Betano 1.95 3.75 4.00 +6.7%
Betfair 1.90 3.60 3.90 +5.4%
BetVictor 1.93 3.60 3.90 +6.2%
Dafabet 1.95 3.70 3.85 +6.7%
Marathonbet 1.94 3.68 4.10 +6.5%
Pinnacle 1.93 3.72 4.09 +6.2%
SBO 1.92 3.57 3.59 +5.9%
Unibet 1.92 3.50 4.00 +5.9%
William Hill 1.91 3.40 3.80 +5.6%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.22 U 4.13
2.5 O 1.71 U 2.14
3.5 O 2.71 U 1.44
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.60 10 bks
NO
2.23 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.24
Away -0.5 1.90
Away -0.75 1.69
Away -1 1.48
Away -1.25 1.37
Away -1.5 1.30
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.