GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 2–1 · VILLARREAL 58% · Value: Over 2.5 64%
CONF 56 FULL ANALYSIS →
La Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 32 · SUN 26 APR · 19:00 LOCAL
VILLARREAL
3RD · 65 PTS · LAST 5:
D W L W D
FT
2 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 2-0
CELTA VIGO
L L L L W
· 7TH · 44 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 2' Gerard Moreno (P) ⚽ 29' Nicolas Pépé
GOALS
⚽ 73' Borja Iglesias (P)
Nicolas Pépé
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Nicolas Pépé
Villarreal · 78 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 30% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
7.9
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap

awaiting upload
Goals, key moments, post-match interviews
Highlightly publishes 30 min – 6 h after final whistle
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.67
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
2.08
48%
BALL POSSESSION %
52%
12
TOTAL SHOTS
9
4
SHOTS ON TARGET
3
90%
PASS ACCURACY %
89%
7
CORNERS
4
KEY EVENTS 21 events
  1. 2'
    Goal · Penalty
    Gerard Moreno
    VIL
  2. 14'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Marcos Alonso
    CEL
  3. 18'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Alfonso Pedraza
    VIL
  4. 29'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Nicolas Pépé · assist Alfonso Pedraza
    VIL
  5. 29'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Ionuț Radu
    CEL
  6. 42'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Nicolas Pépé
    VIL
  7. 45'+3
    Card · Yellow Card
    Pablo Durán
    CEL
  8. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Pablo Durán · assist Ferran Jutglà
    CEL
  9. 70'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Pape Gueye
    VIL
  10. 73'
    Goal · Penalty
    Borja Iglesias
    CEL
  11. 74'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Borja Iglesias
    CEL
  12. 76'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Marcos Alonso · assist Iago Aspas
    CEL
  13. 76'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Hugo Sotelo · assist Fer López
    CEL
  14. 76'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Hugo Álvarez · assist Alvaro Núñez
    CEL
  15. 78'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Pape Gueye · assist Dani Parejo
    VIL
  16. 78'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Nicolas Pépé · assist Alfon González
    VIL
  17. 78'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Alfonso Pedraza · assist Sergi Cardona
    VIL
  18. 83'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Borja Iglesias · assist Hugo González
    CEL
  19. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Georges Mikautadze · assist Ayoze Perez
    VIL
  20. 90'+2
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Alberto Moleiro · assist Thomas Partey
    VIL
  21. 90'+4
    Card · Yellow Card
    Ilaix Moriba
    CEL
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
VILLARREAL AVG 7.4
CELTA VIGO AVG 7.1
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.7
xG
2.1
12.0
TOTAL SHOTS
9.0
4.0
ON TARGET
3.0
5.0
OFF TARGET
4.0
3.0
BLOCKED
2.0
POSSESSION
48.0%
POSSESSION %
52.0%
459.0
PASSES
504.0
90.0%
PASS ACCURACY
89.0%
SET PIECES
7.0
CORNERS
4.0
1.0
OFFSIDES
2.0
DISCIPLINE
13.0
FOULS
14.0
3.0
YELLOW CARDS
4.0
2.0
GK SAVES
2.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
VILLARREAL 2 shots
Nicolas Pépé
1/1
Rafa Marín
0/1
CELTA VIGO 2 shots
Borja Iglesias
1/1
Iago Aspas
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.67 – 2.08
1.7 1.2 0.8 0.4 2.1 0.0 HT 2' 29' 73' H 1.67 A 2.08 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 48%
52% A
10
EVENTS LOGGED
11
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-4-2 vs 3-4-2-1
4-4-2
3-4-2-1
25
ARNAU TEN
24
ALFONSO P
 7.5
12
RENATO VE
 7.2
4
RAFA MARí
 7.3
3
ALEXANDER
 7.3
20
ALBERTO M
18
PAPE GUEY
14
SANTI COM
 7.9
19
NICOLAS P
9
GEORGES M
7
GERARD MO
13
IONUț RAD
 6.9
20
MARCOS AL
 6.7
29
YOEL LAGO
32
JAVI RODR
5
SERGIO CA
6
ILAIX MOR
22
HUGO SOTE
 7.5
3
ÓSCAR MIN
23
HUGO ÁLVA
18
PABLO DUR
 7.7
7
BORJA IGL
SUBSTITUTES · VILLARREAL
10
Dani Parejo
M
11
Alfon Gonzál...
F
21
Tani Oluwase...
F
22
Ayoze Perez
F
16
Thomas Parte...
M
23
Sergi Cardon...
D
2
Logan Costa
D
5
Willy Kambwa...
D
6
Pau Navarro
D
1
Luiz Júnior
G
32
Hugo Lopez
F
COACH: Marcelino
SUBSTITUTES · CELTA VIGO
36
Andrés Antañ...
M
30
Hugo Gonzále...
F
39
Jones El-Abd...
F
9
Ferran Jutgl...
F
8
Fer López
M
17
Javier Rueda
D
21
Mihailo Rist...
D
24
Carlos Domín...
D
12
Manu Fernánd...
D
14
Alvaro Núñez
D
1
Iván Villar
G
10
Iago Aspas
F
COACH: Claudio Giraldez
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
VIL · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

CEL · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez, Spain
—
VIL MANAGER
Marcelino
head coach
CEL MANAGER
Claudio Giraldez
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
4
VIL WINS
3
DRAWS
3
CEL WINS
40%
30%
30%
18 – 19
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
3.70
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
31 Aug 25
Celta Vigo
1 – 1
Villarreal
D
23 Apr 25
Celta Vigo
3 – 0
Villarreal
L
26 Aug 24
Villarreal
4 – 3
Celta Vigo
W
05 May 24
Celta Vigo
3 – 2
Villarreal
L
20 Dec 23
Villarreal
3 – 2
Celta Vigo
W
VILLARREAL LAST 5 OVERALL
D W L W D
CELTA VIGO LAST 5 OVERALL
L L L L W
MATCH IMPACT Final 2–1 · result locked
VILLARREAL #3
Won · already at 65 pts
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
CELTA VIGO #7
Lost · already at 44 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Barcelona 33 28 1 4 +57 85
W W W W W
2 Real Madrid 33 23 5 5 +37 74
D W D L W
3 Villarreal 33 20 5 8 +21 65
W D W L W
4 Atletico Madrid 33 18 6 9 +19 60
W L L L L
5 Real Betis 33 12 14 7 +8 50
D W D D L
6 Getafe 33 13 5 15 -6 44
L W L W W
7 Celta Vigo 33 11 11 11 +2 44
L L L W L
8 Real Sociedad 33 11 10 12 0 43
D L D W L
9 Osasuna 33 11 9 13 -1 42
W L D D W
10 Athletic Club 33 12 5 16 -12 41
L W L L W
11 Rayo Vallecano 33 9 12 12 -8 39
D W L W L
12 Valencia 33 10 9 14 -11 39
W D L L W
13 Elche 33 9 11 13 -6 38
W W W L W
14 Espanyol 32 10 8 14 -12 38
L L D L L
15 Girona 33 9 11 13 -14 38
L L D W L
16 Alaves 33 9 9 15 -11 36
W L D D W
17 Mallorca 33 9 8 16 -10 35
L D W W L
18 Sevilla 33 9 7 17 -15 34
L L W L L
19 Levante 32 8 8 16 -13 32
W W L W D
20 Oviedo 33 6 10 17 -25 28
L D W W L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+4
    Card · Yellow Card · Ilaix Moriba
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 90'+2
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Alberto Moleiro
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Georges Mikautadze
  • 83'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Borja Iglesias
  • 78'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Alfonso Pedraza
  • 78'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Nicolas Pépé
  • 78'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Pape Gueye
  • 76'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Hugo Álvarez
  • 76'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Hugo Sotelo
  • 76'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Marcos Alonso
  • 74'
    Card · Yellow Card · Borja Iglesias
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 73'
    Goal · Penalty · Borja Iglesias
  • 70'
    Card · Yellow Card · Pape Gueye
    Foul
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Pablo Durán
  • HALF TIME · 2 – 0
  • 45'+3
    Card · Yellow Card · Pablo Durán
    Holding
  • 42'
    Card · Yellow Card · Nicolas Pépé
    Foul
  • 29'
    Card · Yellow Card · Ionuț Radu
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 29'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Nicolas Pépé
  • 18'
    Card · Yellow Card · Alfonso Pedraza
    Roughing
  • 14'
    Card · Yellow Card · Marcos Alonso
    Tripping
  • 2'
    Goal · Penalty · Gerard Moreno
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
VILLARREAL WIN
1.93
51.8% implied
↑ best 1.98
DRAW
3.60
27.8% implied
↑ best 3.75
CELTA VIGO WIN
3.91
25.6% implied
↑ best 4.12

Market favors Villarreal. AI projects VILLARREAL 58% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS VILLARREAL 58% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.90 3.60 3.75 +5.4%
1xBet 1.98 3.74 4.12 +7.5%
888Sport 1.91 3.40 3.80 +5.6%
Bet365 1.91 3.60 3.90 +5.6%
Betano 1.95 3.75 4.00 +6.7%
Betfair 1.90 3.60 3.90 +5.4%
BetVictor 1.93 3.60 3.90 +6.2%
Dafabet 1.95 3.70 3.85 +6.7%
Marathonbet 1.94 3.68 4.10 +6.5%
Pinnacle 1.93 3.72 4.09 +6.2%
SBO 1.92 3.57 3.59 +5.9%
Unibet 1.92 3.50 4.00 +5.9%
William Hill 1.91 3.40 3.80 +5.6%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.22 U 4.13
2.5 O 1.71 U 2.14
3.5 O 2.71 U 1.44
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.60 10 bks
NO
2.23 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.24
Away -0.5 1.90
Away -0.75 1.69
Away -1 1.48
Away -1.25 1.37
Away -1.5 1.30
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.