GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · DRAW 38% · Value: BTTS Yes 62%
CONF 54 FULL ANALYSIS →
J1 League · REGULAR SEASON - 14 · SUN, 03 MAY · 08:00 LOCAL
V-VAREN NAGASAKI
9TH · 21 PTS · LAST 5:
W L D L W
FT
1 – 2
FULL TIME HT · 1-1
NAGOYA GRAMPUS
D L L W W
· 3RD · 31 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 29' Thiago Santana
GOALS
⚽ 34' Kensuke Nagai ⚽ 54' Kensuke Nagai
Kensuke Nagai
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Kensuke Nagai
Nagoya Grampus · Captain · 72 mins
⚽ 2 goals · 13% pass acc · 2 shots on
RATING
9.3
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 1 CLIP

powered by Highlightly
J1 League: V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus
Open in Youtube ↗
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

50%
BALL POSSESSION %
50%
18
TOTAL SHOTS
12
9
SHOTS ON TARGET
6
72%
PASS ACCURACY %
77%
9
CORNERS
9
KEY EVENTS 14 events
  1. 29'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Thiago Santana · assist Motoki Hasegawa
    V-V
  2. 34'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Kensuke Nagai · assist Shungo Sugiura
    NAG
  3. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Soichiro Mori · assist Hidemasa Koda
    NAG
  4. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Riku Yamada · assist Norman Campbell
    V-V
  5. 53'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Arai Ikki · assist Hayato Teruyama
    V-V
  6. 54'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Kensuke Nagai · assist Kennedy Egbus Mikuni
    NAG
  7. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Thiago Santana · assist Matheus Jesus
    V-V
  8. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Yoneda Shunya · assist Tsubasa Kasayanagi
    V-V
  9. 72'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Kensuke Nagai · assist Kyota Sakakibara
    NAG
  10. 74'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Yamaguchi Hotaru · assist Diego Pituca
    V-V
  11. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Ryosuke Yamanaka · assist Yota Sato
    NAG
  12. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Shungo Sugiura · assist Yudai Kimura
    NAG
  13. 80'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Matheus Jesus
    V-V
  14. 86'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Yuki Nogami · assist Akinari Kawazura
    NAG
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
V-VAREN NAGASAKI AVG 7.2
NAGOYA GRAMPUS AVG 8.0
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
18.0
TOTAL SHOTS
12.0
9.0
ON TARGET
6.0
6.0
OFF TARGET
3.0
3.0
BLOCKED
3.0
POSSESSION
50.0%
POSSESSION %
50.0%
390.0
PASSES
400.0
72.0%
PASS ACCURACY
77.0%
SET PIECES
9.0
CORNERS
9.0
0.0
OFFSIDES
3.0
DISCIPLINE
12.0
FOULS
3.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
0.0
4.0
GK SAVES
7.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
V-VAREN NAGASAKI 5 shots
Thiago Santana
3/4
Motoki Hasegawa
1/1
NAGOYA GRAMPUS 4 shots
Kensuke Nagai
2/3
Shungo Sugiura
1/1
⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 50%
50% A
7
EVENTS LOGGED
7
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-4-2-1 vs 3-4-2-1
3-4-2-1
3-4-2-1
1
GOTO MASA
4
EDUARDO
29
ARAI IKKI
22
ONAGA HIJ
23
YONEDA SH
5
YAMAGUCHI
24
RIKU YAMA
3
MASAHIRO
 7.9
41
MOTOKI HA
34
TENMU MAT
 7.5
9
THIAGO SA
 8.5
35
ALEXANDRE
55
SHUHEI TO
 7.2
20
KENNEDY E
2
YUKI NOGA
66
RYOSUKE Y
 7.3
17
TAKUYA UC
41
MASAHITO
44
SOICHIRO
 9.3
18
KENSUKE N
33
TAICHI KI
 7.5
30
SHUNGO SU
SUBSTITUTES · V-VAREN NAGASAKI
8
Iwasaki Yuto
F
17
Keita Takaha...
D
13
Hatano Go
G
21
Diego Pituca
M
33
Tsubasa Kasa...
M
10
Matheus Jesu...
M
48
Hayato Teruy...
D
11
Norman Campb...
M
18
Yamasaki Ryo...
F
COACH: Takuya Takagi
SUBSTITUTES · NAGOYA GRAMPUS
37
Harumu Kubo
D
36
Hiroaki Hagi
G
6
Akinari Kawa...
D
22
Yudai Kimura
F
3
Yota Sato
D
28
Kyota Sakaki...
F
19
Hidemasa Kod...
M
32
Haruto Suzuk...
M
COACH: Mihailo Petrovic
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
V-V · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

NAG · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
K. Koya
—
V-V MANAGER
Takuya Takagi
head coach
NAG MANAGER
Mihailo Petrovic
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
3
V-V WINS
2
DRAWS
1
NAG WINS
50%
33.3%
16.7%
12 – 8
TOTAL GOALS · 6 MEETINGS
3.33
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 3 / 6
21 Feb 2026
Nagoya Grampus
1 – 3
V-varen Nagasaki
W
15 Sep 2018
Nagoya Grampus
3 – 4
V-varen Nagasaki
W
12 May 2018
V-varen Nagasaki
3 – 0
Nagoya Grampus
W
V-VAREN NAGASAKI LAST 5 OVERALL
W L D L W
NAGOYA GRAMPUS LAST 5 OVERALL
D L L W W
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–2 · result locked
V-VAREN NAGASAKI #8
Lost · already at 21 pts
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
NAGOYA GRAMPUS #2
Won · already at 31 pts
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Kashima 18 15 0 3 +20 45
W W W W W
1 Vissel Kobe 18 11 0 7 +4 35
W L W L W
1 Kashima 17 14 0 3 +19 42
W W W W L
1 Vissel Kobe 17 10 0 7 +3 32
L W L W L
1 Kashima 18 15 0 3 +20 45
W W W W W
1 Vissel Kobe 18 11 0 7 +4 35
W L W L W
2 Cerezo Osaka 18 11 0 7 +9 31
W W W L W
2 FC Tokyo 18 13 0 5 +14 37
L W W L W
2 Nagoya Grampus 17 10 0 7 +4 31
L W W W L
2 FC Tokyo 17 13 0 4 +15 37
W W L W W
2 Cerezo Osaka 18 11 0 7 +9 31
W W W L W
2 FC Tokyo 18 13 0 5 +14 37
L W W L W
3 Nagoya Grampus 18 10 0 8 +2 31
L L W W W
3 Machida Zelvia 18 13 0 5 +6 37
W L W W W
3 Cerezo Osaka 17 10 0 7 +8 28
W W L W W
3 Machida Zelvia 18 13 0 5 +6 37
W L W W W
3 Nagoya Grampus 18 10 0 8 +2 31
L L W W W
3 Machida Zelvia 18 13 0 5 +6 37
W L W W W
4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 18 10 0 8 +8 30
W W W L L
4 Kawasaki Frontale 18 10 0 8 -2 28
W W L W L
4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 17 9 0 8 +6 27
W W L L L
4 Tokyo Verdy 17 10 0 7 +2 28
W L L L W
4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 18 10 0 8 +8 30
W W W L L
4 Kawasaki Frontale 18 10 0 8 -2 28
W W L W L
5 Gamba Osaka 18 10 0 8 +6 28
W L L W L
5 Tokyo Verdy 18 10 0 8 -4 28
L W L L L
5 Fagiano Okayama 17 8 0 9 -2 26
W W L W W
5 Urawa 18 7 0 11 +3 25
L L W W W
5 Gamba Osaka 18 10 0 8 +6 28
W L L W L
5 Tokyo Verdy 18 10 0 8 -4 28
L W L L L
6 Fagiano Okayama 18 8 0 10 -3 26
L W W L W
6 Urawa 18 7 0 11 +3 25
L L W W W
6 Gamba Osaka 17 9 0 8 +5 25
L L W L W
6 Kawasaki Frontale 17 9 0 8 -4 25
W L W L L
6 Fagiano Okayama 18 8 0 10 -3 26
L W W L W
6 Urawa 18 7 0 11 +3 25
L L W W W
7 Shimizu S-pulse 18 8 0 10 -2 24
L L W W W
7 Yokohama F. Marinos 18 6 0 12 -3 20
W L L L L
7 Shimizu S-pulse 17 8 0 9 -1 24
L W W W L
7 Mito Hollyhock 17 6 0 11 -14 18
L L L W L
7 Shimizu S-pulse 18 8 0 10 -2 24
L L W W W
7 Yokohama F. Marinos 18 6 0 12 -3 20
W L L L L
8 Kyoto Sanga 18 8 0 10 -6 23
W L L L L
8 Kashiwa Reysol 18 7 0 11 -2 20
W W W L L
8 V-varen Nagasaki 17 7 0 10 -7 21
W L W L W
8 Kashiwa Reysol 17 6 0 11 -4 17
W W L L L
8 Kyoto Sanga 18 8 0 10 -6 23
W L L L L
8 Kashiwa Reysol 18 7 0 11 -2 20
W W W L L
9 V-varen Nagasaki 18 7 0 11 -8 21
L W L W L
9 Mito Hollyhock 18 6 0 12 -16 18
L L L L W
9 Avispa Fukuoka 17 7 0 10 -9 21
L W L W L
9 Yokohama F. Marinos 17 5 0 12 -9 17
L L L L W
9 V-varen Nagasaki 18 7 0 11 -8 21
L W L W L
9 Mito Hollyhock 18 6 0 12 -16 18
L L L L W
10 JEF United Chiba 18 3 0 15 -16 12
L L L W L
10 Avispa Fukuoka 18 7 0 11 -10 21
L L W L W
10 JEF United Chiba 17 3 0 14 -14 12
L L W L L
10 Kyoto Sanga 17 7 0 10 -7 20
L L L L L
10 JEF United Chiba 18 3 0 15 -16 12
L L L W L
10 Avispa Fukuoka 18 7 0 11 -10 21
L L W L W
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 86'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Yuki Nogami
  • 80'
    Card · Yellow Card · Matheus Jesus
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Shungo Sugiura
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Ryosuke Yamanaka
  • 74'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Yamaguchi Hotaru
  • 72'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Kensuke Nagai
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Yoneda Shunya
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Thiago Santana
  • 54'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Kensuke Nagai
  • 53'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Arai Ikki
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Riku Yamada
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Soichiro Mori
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 1
  • 34'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Kensuke Nagai
  • 29'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Thiago Santana
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
V-VAREN NAGASAKI WIN
3.24
30.9% implied
↑ best 3.40
DRAW
3.38
29.6% implied
↑ best 3.50
NAGOYA GRAMPUS WIN
2.14
46.7% implied
↑ best 2.23

Market favors Nagoya Grampus. AI projects DRAW 38% · value bet BTTS Yes.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS DRAW 38% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 3.20 3.45 2.15 +9.0%
1xBet 3.28 3.34 2.16 +8.1%
Bet365 3.30 3.40 2.10 +8.6%
Betano 3.15 3.35 2.20 +8.1%
Betfair 3.20 3.40 2.00 +8.6%
BetVictor 3.25 3.50 2.15 +9.4%
Dafabet 3.35 3.45 2.15 +9.0%
Marathonbet 3.28 3.34 2.14 +8.1%
Pinnacle 3.40 3.50 2.20 +9.4%
SBO 3.00 3.26 2.23 +7.3%
Unibet 3.20 3.30 2.12 +7.7%
William Hill 3.25 3.25 2.10 +7.2%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.25 U 3.61
2.5 O 1.83 U 1.94
3.5 O 3.02 U 1.34
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.67 9 bks
NO
2.07 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.42
Away -0.5 1.34
Away -0.75 1.21
Away -1 1.10
Away -1.25 1.09
Away -1.5 1.07
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.