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Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · GROUP 17 - 32 · SUN 26 APR · 16:00 LOCAL
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UTRILLAS
FT
3 – 3
FULL TIME
UD CASETAS
⚽ 47' J. Pelegrin ⚽ 71' M. Kombe ⚽ 73' M. Kombe
GOALS
⚽ 25' C. De Castro ⚽ 34' D. Marin ⚽ 87' —
CLAUDE AI · BLENDED FROM 4 MODELS
FINAL · VERIFIED
CONF 35/100 LOW
🔮 PREDICTED FULL-TIME SCORE
UTR
1 – 1
UD
most likely scoreline · 14.2% probability
AI PICKS UD CASETAS TO WIN 40%
FT 3 – 3
→
🤖 AI PROJECTED FT 1 – 1
🤖 AI BREAKDOWN

HOW AI SEES THE MATCH

FINAL · VERIFIED
UTR WIN 28%
DRAW 32%
UD WIN 40%
h + d + a = 100% · stacked share
💰 AI BETTING TIP
DOUBLE CHANCE — X2

Tight 1X2 — single-side too risky. Double chance covers 72% of outcomes with smaller payout.

CONF 72% avoid: 1X2 single 4 models
🤖 AI ANALYSIS

Away goal at 30' in data-thin match; draw most likely given 60 min remaining, but insufficient data limits confidence.

🤖 AI REASONING why AI picked this
WHY UTRILLAS CHALLENGED
28%
UD Casetas ahead 1-0 at 30' — away-goal advantage in open half
CONTEXT
Tercera División Group 17 (regional Spanish league) — thin statistical coverage
CONTEXT
60 minutes remain; home team time to equalize but UD Casetas has momentum
CONTEXT
WHY UD CASETAS FAVORED
40%
UD Casetas ahead 1-0 at 30' — away-goal advantage in open half
CONTEXT
Tercera División Group 17 (regional Spanish league) — thin statistical coverage
CONTEXT
60 minutes remain; home team time to equalize but UD Casetas has momentum
CONTEXT
🤖 CONTEXT · NEUTRAL FACTORS
  • UD Casetas ahead 1-0 at 30' — away-goal advantage in open half
  • Tercera División Group 17 (regional Spanish league) — thin statistical coverage
  • 60 minutes remain; home team time to equalize but UD Casetas has momentum
🤖 AI LIVE TIMELINE

PROBABILITY TIMELINE

How AI re-projects after each event
H DRAW A
100% 50% 0% KO 15' 30' HT 60' 75' FT ⚽ 25' C. DE CAST ⚽ 34' D. MARIN ⚽ 47' J. PELEGRI ⚽ 71' M. KOMBE ⚽ 73' M. KOMBE ⚽ 87'
Probabilities re-blended at each event · 6 events marked → Derived from goal events + remaining time
🤖 AI SCORE MATRIX

SCORELINE PROBABILITY

All possible scorelines · Poisson from xG
0% 14.2%+
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
13.5
14.2
7.5
2.6
0.7
0.1
·
1
12.9
13.5
7.1
2.5
0.7
0.1
·
2
6.1
6.4
3.4
1.2
0.3
0.1
·
3
1.9
2.0
1.1
0.4
0.1
·
·
4
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.1
·
·
·
5
0.1
0.1
·
·
·
·
·
6+
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
MOST LIKELY · TOP 5
0 — 1 14.2%
0 — 0 13.5%
1 — 1 13.5%
1 — 0 12.9%
0 — 2 7.5%
Top 5 = 61.6% · rest 38.4%
🤖 AI VALUE FINDER

VALUE BETS

Where AI sees an edge vs bookmaker odds
8 markets · pre-match avg odds
MARKETODDSAI PROBFAIREDGE
AWAY to Win
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
3.83
40.0%
2.50
+53.2%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
7 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.78
72.0%
1.39
+28.3%
Over 2.5 Goals
7 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.16
52.0%
1.92
+12.1%
Both Teams Score — YES
4 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.93
58.0%
1.72
+11.8%
Draw
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
3.11
32.0%
3.13
-0.4%
—
HOME or AWAY (12)
7 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.27
68.0%
1.47
-13.6%
—
HOME or Draw (1X)
7 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.19
60.0%
1.67
-28.4%
—
HOME to Win
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.88
28.0%
3.57
-47.3%
—
⚠ 18+ only. Odds change frequently. AI predictions are not guarantees. Bet responsibly.