GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 2–2 · DRAW 52% · Value: Over 2.5 92%
CONF 68 FULL ANALYSIS →
Ligue 1 · REGULAR SEASON - 31 · SAT 25 APR · 19:05 LOCAL
TOULOUSE
10TH · 38 PTS · LAST 5:
L L L W W
FT
2 – 2
FULL TIME HT · 0-2
MONACO
D L W W W
· 7TH · 51 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 61' Jacen Russell-Rowe ⚽ 90' Emersonn
GOALS
⚽ 6' Jordan Teze ⚽ 18' Lamine Camara
Aron Dønnum
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Aron Dønnum
Toulouse · 90 mins
· 45% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
8.2
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 2 CLIPS

powered by Highlightly
Ligue 1: Toulouse vs Monaco
Watch on Youtube ↗
Ligue 1: Toulouse vs Monaco
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.65
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.91
51%
BALL POSSESSION %
49%
18
TOTAL SHOTS
8
5
SHOTS ON TARGET
5
86%
PASS ACCURACY %
84%
4
CORNERS
2
KEY EVENTS 18 events
  1. 6'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Jordan Teze · assist Simon Adingra
    MON
  2. 18'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Lamine Camara · assist Maghnes Akliouche
    MON
  3. 31'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Charlie Cresswell
    TOU
  4. 61'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Ansu Fati · assist Aleksandr Golovin
    MON
  5. 61'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Jacen Russell-Rowe · assist Dayann Methalie
    TOU
  6. 62'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Christian Mawissa
    MON
  7. 66'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Rasmus Nicolaisen
    TOU
  8. 74'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Jacen Russell-Rowe · assist Emersonn
    TOU
  9. 75'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Maghnes Akliouche · assist Eric Dier
    MON
  10. 75'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Lukáš Hrádecký
    MON
  11. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Alexis Vossah · assist Mario Sauer
    TOU
  12. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Santiago Hidalgo · assist Ilyas Azizi
    TOU
  13. 84'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Folarin Balogun · assist Mika Biereth
    MON
  14. 84'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Simon Adingra · assist Paul Pogba
    MON
  15. 90'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Emersonn
    TOU
  16. 90'+1
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Pape Diop · assist Julian Vignolo
    TOU
  17. 90'+1
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Dayann Methalie · assist Warren Kamanzi
    TOU
  18. 90'+2
    Card · Yellow Card
    Mario Sauer
    TOU
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
TOULOUSE AVG 7.3
MONACO AVG 7.3
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.7
xG
0.9
18.0
TOTAL SHOTS
8.0
5.0
ON TARGET
5.0
8.0
OFF TARGET
3.0
5.0
BLOCKED
0.0
POSSESSION
51.0%
POSSESSION %
49.0%
515.0
PASSES
497.0
86.0%
PASS ACCURACY
84.0%
SET PIECES
4.0
CORNERS
2.0
DISCIPLINE
17.0
FOULS
10.0
3.0
YELLOW CARDS
2.0
3.0
GK SAVES
3.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
TOULOUSE 10 shots
Aron Dønnum
1/3
Jacen Russell-Rowe
1/3
Emersonn
1/2
Cristian Cásseres Jr.
0/2
MONACO 5 shots
Lamine Camara
1/2
Jordan Teze
1/1
Maghnes Akliouche
1/1
Denis Zakaria
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.65 – 0.91
1.3 1 0.7 0.3 1.7 0.0 HT 61' 90' 6' 18' H 1.65 A 0.91 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 56%
44% A
10
EVENTS LOGGED
8
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-4-2-1 vs 3-4-2-1
3-4-2-1
3-4-2-1
1
GUILLAUME
2
RASMUS NI
4
CHARLIE C
 6.9
3
MARK MCKE
24
DAYANN ME
 7.0
23
CRISTIAN
45
ALEXIS VO
 8.2
15
ARON DøNN
18
PAPE DIOP
11
SANTIAGO
 6.9
13
JACEN RUS
 7.2
1
LUKáš HRá
13
CHRISTIAN
25
WOUT FAES
5
THILO KEH
24
SIMON ADI
 6.9
6
DENIS ZAK
 7.2
15
LAMINE CA
 8.2
4
JORDAN TE
31
ANSU FATI
 7.0
11
MAGHNES A
9
FOLARIN B
SUBSTITUTES · TOULOUSE
19
Djibril Sidi...
D
16
Kjetil Haug
G
40
Naime Said M...
G
7
Julian Vigno...
F
12
Warren Kaman...
D
37
Ilyas Azizi
F
77
Mario Sauer
M
20
Emersonn
F
35
Seny Koumbas...
D
COACH: Carles Martinez
SUBSTITUTES · MONACO
44
Samuel Nibom...
M
49
Ilane Touré
M
23
Aladji Bamba
M
16
Philipp Köhn
G
14
Mika Biereth
F
8
Paul Pogba
M
3
Eric Dier
D
10
Aleksandr Go...
M
28
Mamadou Coul...
M
COACH: Sebastien Pocognoli
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
TOU · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

MON · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Clement Turpin, France
—
TOU MANAGER
Carles Martinez
head coach
MON MANAGER
Sebastien Pocognoli
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
2
TOU WINS
1
DRAWS
6
MON WINS
22.2%
11.1%
66.7%
8 – 14
TOTAL GOALS · 9 MEETINGS
2.44
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
25 Oct 25
Monaco
1 – 0
Toulouse
L
07 Mar 25
Toulouse
1 – 1
Monaco
D
07 Dec 24
Monaco
2 – 0
Toulouse
L
18 Feb 24
Monaco
1 – 2
Toulouse
W
20 Dec 23
Toulouse
1 – 2
Monaco
L
TOULOUSE LAST 5 OVERALL
L L L W W
MONACO LAST 5 OVERALL
D L W W W
MATCH IMPACT Final 2–2 · result locked
TOULOUSE #10
Lost · already at 38 pts
MONACO #7
Lost · already at 51 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Paris Saint Germain 30 22 3 5 +43 69
W W L W W
2 Lens 30 20 3 7 +28 63
D W L W L
3 Lille 31 17 6 8 +16 57
W D W W W
4 Lyon 31 17 6 8 +16 57
W W W D L
5 Rennes 31 16 8 7 +12 56
W W W W D
6 Marseille 31 16 5 10 +18 53
D L W L L
7 Monaco 31 15 6 10 +7 51
D D L W W
8 Strasbourg 30 13 7 10 +10 46
W L W W D
9 Lorient 31 10 11 10 -5 41
L W L D L
10 Toulouse 31 10 8 13 -1 38
D L L L W
11 Stade Brestois 29 30 10 8 12 -6 38
D D L L L
12 Paris FC 31 9 11 11 -7 38
L W W D W
13 Angers 31 9 7 15 -17 34
L D L D L
14 Le Havre 31 6 13 12 -13 31
D D D D L
15 Nice 31 7 9 15 -22 30
D D D L L
16 Auxerre 31 5 10 16 -15 25
L D D D W
17 Nantes 31 4 8 19 -25 20
L L D D D
18 Metz 31 3 7 21 -39 16
D L L D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+2
    Card · Yellow Card · Mario Sauer
    Foul
  • 90'+1
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Dayann Methalie
  • 90'+1
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Pape Diop
  • 90'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Emersonn
  • 84'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Simon Adingra
  • 84'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Folarin Balogun
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Santiago Hidalgo
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Alexis Vossah
  • 75'
    Card · Yellow Card · Lukáš Hrádecký
    Delay of game
  • 75'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Maghnes Akliouche
  • 74'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Jacen Russell-Rowe
  • 66'
    Card · Yellow Card · Rasmus Nicolaisen
    Foul
  • 62'
    Card · Yellow Card · Christian Mawissa
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 61'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Jacen Russell-Rowe
  • 61'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Ansu Fati
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 2
  • 31'
    Card · Yellow Card · Charlie Cresswell
    Foul
  • 18'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Lamine Camara
  • 6'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Jordan Teze
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
TOULOUSE WIN
4.35
23% implied
↑ best 4.70
DRAW
4.06
24.6% implied
↑ best 4.40
MONACO WIN
1.73
57.8% implied
↑ best 1.76

Market favors Monaco. AI projects DRAW 52% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS DRAW 52% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 4.40 3.90 1.71 +26.4%
1xBet 4.58 4.40 1.76 +29.3%
888Sport 4.20 3.80 1.73 +25.7%
Bet365 4.33 4.10 1.73 +27.6%
Betano 4.25 4.05 1.75 +27.3%
Betfair 4.33 4.00 1.73 +27.0%
BetVictor 4.40 4.10 1.70 +27.6%
Dafabet 4.50 4.20 1.73 +28.2%
Marathonbet 4.33 4.30 1.76 +28.7%
Pinnacle 4.70 4.18 1.72 +28.1%
SBO 4.00 3.83 1.74 +25.9%
Unibet 4.30 4.10 1.71 +27.6%
William Hill 4.20 3.80 1.73 +25.7%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.15 U 4.92
2.5 O 1.56 U 2.37
3.5 O 2.42 U 1.56
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.56 10 bks
NO
2.33 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.27
Away -0.5 1.27
Away -0.75 1.15
Away -1 1.04
Away -1.25 1.04
Away -1.5 1.05
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.