GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · TONDELA 40%
CONF 18 FULL ANALYSIS →
Primeira Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 31 · SAT 25 APR · 14:30 LOCAL
TONDELA
17TH · 21 PTS · LAST 5:
L D L D L
FT
0 – 2
FULL TIME HT · 0-2
NACIONAL
W L W L L
· 14TH · 31 PTS · LAST 5
GOALS
⚽ 22' Jesús Ramírez ⚽ 31' Brayan Medina (OG)
Filipe Soares
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Filipe Soares
Nacional · 91 mins
· 29% pass acc
RATING
7.6
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 3 CLIPS

powered by Highlightly
Primeira Liga: Tondela vs Nacional
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Primeira Liga: Tondela vs Nacional
Primeira Liga: Tondela vs Nacional
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.82
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.83
62%
BALL POSSESSION %
38%
21
TOTAL SHOTS
17
5
SHOTS ON TARGET
6
83%
PASS ACCURACY %
67%
7
CORNERS
7
KEY EVENTS 13 events
  1. 14'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Gabriel Veron · assist Pablo
    NAC
  2. 22'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Jesús Ramírez · assist Daniel Júnior
    NAC
  3. 31'
    Goal · Own Goal
    Brayan Medina
    NAC
  4. 38'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Rodrigo Conceição · assist Tiago Manso
    TON
  5. 58'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Tiago Manso
    TON
  6. 61'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Hugo Félix · assist Makan Aïko
    TON
  7. 61'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Arjen Van Der Heide · assist Siphephelo Sithole
    TON
  8. 64'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Jesús Ramírez
    NAC
  9. 76'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Joe Hodge · assist Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka
    TON
  10. 78'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Daniel Júnior · assist Andre Sousa
    NAC
  11. 90'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Makan Aïko
    TON
  12. 90'+1
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Filipe Soares · assist Joel Silva
    NAC
  13. 90'+1
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Jose Gomes · assist João Aurélio
    NAC
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
TONDELA AVG 7.3
NACIONAL AVG 7.4
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.8
xG
0.8
21.0
TOTAL SHOTS
17.0
5.0
ON TARGET
6.0
8.0
OFF TARGET
4.0
8.0
BLOCKED
7.0
POSSESSION
62.0%
POSSESSION %
38.0%
440.0
PASSES
275.0
83.0%
PASS ACCURACY
67.0%
SET PIECES
7.0
CORNERS
7.0
1.0
OFFSIDES
1.0
DISCIPLINE
16.0
FOULS
14.0
2.0
YELLOW CARDS
1.0
5.0
GK SAVES
5.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
TONDELA 6 shots
Rony Lopes
1/4
Tiago Manso
1/2
NACIONAL 6 shots
Jesús Ramírez
1/2
Matheus Dias
2/2
Filipe Soares
0/1
Ze Vitor
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.82 – 0.83
1.5 1.1 0.7 0.4 1.8 0.0 HT 22' 31' H 1.82 A 0.83 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 46%
54% A
6
EVENTS LOGGED
7
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1
4-3-3
4-2-3-1
7.3
31
BERNARDO
27
RODRIGO C
20
BRAYAN ME
44
JOãO SILV
 6.9
2
BEBETO
79
HUGO FéLI
10
JOE HODGE
32
JUAN RODR
26
ARJEN VAN
 7.3
16
RONY LOPE
 7.5
70
MOUDJATOV
1
KAIQUE
5
JOSE GOME
 7.3
38
ZE VITOR
 7.2
34
LéO SANTO
16
ALAN NúñE
 7.2
6
MATHEUS D
 7.6
22
FILIPE SO
11
PAULINHO
27
GABRIEL V
10
DANIEL Jú
 7.5
9
JESúS RAM
SUBSTITUTES · TONDELA
29
Jordan Sieba...
F
90
Makan Aïko
F
15
Siphephelo S...
M
48
Tiago Manso
D
8
Helder Tavar...
M
21
Rémy Vita
D
5
João Afonso
D
30
Lucas Cañiza...
G
23
Benjamin Mbu...
F
COACH: Cristiano Bacci
SUBSTITUTES · NACIONAL
99
Pablo
F
30
Martim Gusta...
M
18
Andre Sousa
M
26
Joel Silva
M
7
Witi
F
33
Francisco Go...
D
2
João Aurélio
D
50
Kevyn
G
19
Lucas Joao
F
COACH: Tiago Margarido
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
TON · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

NAC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Helder Malheiro, Portugal
—
TON MANAGER
Cristiano Bacci
head coach
NAC MANAGER
Tiago Margarido
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
4
TON WINS
1
DRAWS
5
NAC WINS
40%
10%
50%
10 – 14
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.40
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 3 / 10
15 Dec 25
Nacional
3 – 1
Tondela
L
22 Apr 21
Tondela
2 – 1
Nacional
W
27 Dec 20
Nacional
2 – 0
Tondela
L
TONDELA LAST 5 OVERALL
L D L D L
NACIONAL LAST 5 OVERALL
W L W L L
MATCH IMPACT Final 0–2 · result locked
TONDELA #17
Lost · already at 21 pts
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2
NACIONAL #14
Won · already at 31 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 FC Porto 31 26 4 1 +48 82
W W W D W
2 Benfica 31 22 9 0 +47 75
W W W D W
3 Sporting CP 30 22 6 2 +55 72
D L W W W
4 SC Braga 31 16 8 7 +28 56
L W D W W
5 Famalicao 31 14 9 8 +12 51
W D D D W
6 GIL Vicente 30 12 10 8 +13 46
L D W L D
7 Guimaraes 31 12 6 13 -5 42
W W D W L
8 Moreirense 31 11 6 14 -11 39
L W D L L
9 Alverca 31 10 8 13 -15 38
W L W W L
10 Estoril 31 10 7 14 -1 37
L L L L L
11 Arouca 31 10 5 16 -21 35
L W L W W
12 Rio Ave 31 8 10 13 -19 34
L D W L W
13 Santa Clara 31 8 8 15 -10 32
W D L L W
14 Nacional 31 8 7 16 -7 31
W W L W L
15 Estrela 31 6 10 15 -17 28
L L L L W
16 Casa Pia 30 5 11 14 -25 26
L D L D L
17 Tondela 30 4 9 17 -29 21
L L D L D
18 AVS 31 1 11 19 -43 14
D D D L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+1
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Jose Gomes
  • 90'+1
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Filipe Soares
  • 90'
    Card · Yellow Card · Makan Aïko
  • 78'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Daniel Júnior
  • 76'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Joe Hodge
  • 64'
    Card · Yellow Card · Jesús Ramírez
  • 61'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Arjen Van Der Heide
  • 61'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Hugo Félix
  • 58'
    Card · Yellow Card · Tiago Manso
    misses next match
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 2
  • 38'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Rodrigo Conceição
  • 31'
    Goal · Own Goal · Brayan Medina
  • 22'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Jesús Ramírez
  • 14'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Gabriel Veron
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
TONDELA WIN
2.77
36.1% implied
↑ best 2.91
DRAW
3.29
30.4% implied
↑ best 3.45
NACIONAL WIN
2.49
40.2% implied
↑ best 2.60

Market favors Nacional. AI projects TONDELA 40%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS TONDELA 40% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.76 3.30 2.48 +3.8%
1xBet 2.90 3.38 2.56 +5.5%
888Sport 2.75 3.10 2.45 +3.6%
Bet365 2.75 3.40 2.50 +3.6%
Betano 2.85 3.30 2.52 +4.9%
Betfair 2.70 3.40 2.45 +3.0%
BetVictor 2.63 3.25 2.45 +2.0%
Dafabet 2.85 3.45 2.55 +4.9%
Marathonbet 2.79 3.25 2.46 +4.2%
Pinnacle 2.91 3.39 2.54 +5.6%
SBO 2.73 3.23 2.42 +3.4%
Unibet 2.65 3.25 2.60 +2.3%
William Hill 2.75 3.10 2.45 +3.6%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.28 U 3.44
2.5 O 1.93 U 1.86
3.5 O 3.26 U 1.31
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.69 10 bks
NO
2.05 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.57
Away -0.5 1.44
Away -0.75 1.30
Away -1 1.16
Away -1.25 1.12
Away -1.5 1.11
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.