GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · TOLUCA 38%
CONF 35 FULL ANALYSIS →
Liga MX · APERTURA - 2 · WED, 22 JUL · 03:05 LOCAL
TOLUCA
5TH · 30 PTS · LAST 5:
W L L W L
FT
1 – 2
FULL TIME HT · 1-0
U.N.A.M. - PUMAS
L L D W L
· 1ST · 36 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 14' Jorge Díaz
GOALS
⚽ 57' Victor Arteaga ⚽ 63' Sebastián Córdova
Victor Arteaga
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Victor Arteaga
U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 95 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 20% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
8.0
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.19
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.64
66%
BALL POSSESSION %
34%
16
TOTAL SHOTS
8
4
SHOTS ON TARGET
3
85%
PASS ACCURACY %
76%
9
CORNERS
1
KEY EVENTS 14 events
  1. 14'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Jorge Díaz · assist Helinho
    TOL
  2. 17'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Helinho
    TOL
  3. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Pablo Bennevendo · assist Sebastián Córdova
    U.N
  4. 57'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Victor Arteaga · assist Robert Morales
    U.N
  5. 63'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Sebastián Córdova · assist Rodrigo Lopez
    U.N
  6. 66'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Víctor Guzmán · assist Nicolás Castro
    TOL
  7. 66'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Jesús Ricardo Angulo · assist Franco Romero
    TOL
  8. 66'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Alexis Vega · assist Jesús Gallardo
    TOL
  9. 76'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Brian García · assist Carlos Carrillo
    TOL
  10. 80'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Rodrigo Lopez
    U.N
  11. 86'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Diego Barbosa · assist Santiago Simón
    TOL
  12. 88'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Juninho · assist Alan Medina
    U.N
  13. 90'+1
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Robert Morales · assist Guillermo Martínez
    U.N
  14. 90'+6
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Uriel Antuna · assist Antonio Leone
    U.N
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
TOLUCA AVG 7.1
U.N.A.M. - PUMAS AVG 7.3
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.2
xG
0.6
16.0
TOTAL SHOTS
8.0
4.0
ON TARGET
3.0
5.0
OFF TARGET
4.0
7.0
BLOCKED
1.0
POSSESSION
66.0%
POSSESSION %
34.0%
572.0
PASSES
306.0
85.0%
PASS ACCURACY
76.0%
SET PIECES
9.0
CORNERS
1.0
0.0
OFFSIDES
1.0
DISCIPLINE
4.0
FOULS
11.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
1.0
1.0
GK SAVES
3.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
TOLUCA 6 shots
Helinho
1/4
Jorge Díaz
1/1
Fernando Arce Juárez
0/1
U.N.A.M. - PUMAS 3 shots
Victor Arteaga
1/2
Sebastián Córdova
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.19 – 0.64
1 0.7 0.5 0.2 1.2 0.0 HT 14' 57' 63' H 1.19 A 0.64 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 50%
50% A
7
EVENTS LOGGED
7
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3
4-2-3-1
4-3-3
7.0
1
HUGO GONZ
17
BRIAN GAR
13
LUAN
4
BRUNO MéN
2
DIEGO BAR
 6.9
24
FERNANDO
 6.9
7
VíCTOR GU
9
ALEXIS VE
10
JESúS RIC
 7.2
11
HELINHO
 7.6
29
JORGE DíA
 6.9
1
KEYLOR NA
77
ÁLVARO AN
5
RUBéN DUA
 7.0
6
NATHAN SI
2
PABLO BEN
 8.0
18
VICTOR AR
 7.3
45
PEDRO VIT
7
RODRIGO L
31
ROBERT MO
23
JUNINHO
21
URIEL ANT
SUBSTITUTES · TOLUCA
8
Nicolás Cast...
M
35
Érick Gutiér...
M
5
Franco Romer...
M
3
Antonio Bris...
D
20
Jesús Gallar...
D
25
Everardo Lóp...
D
6
Federico Per...
D
19
Santiago Sim...
M
22
Luis García
G
191
Carlos Carri...
F
COACH: Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich Antonio
SUBSTITUTES · U.N.A.M. - PUMAS
22
Alan Medina
F
203
Stanley Garc...
M
20
Santiago Tri...
M
34
Angel Azuaje
D
199
Kleber Carra...
D
24
Antonio Leon...
D
12
Cristian Cal...
D
35
Pablo Lara
G
17
Sebastián Có...
M
9
Guillermo Ma...
F
COACH: Esteban Solari
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
TOL · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

U.N · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Victor Alfonso Caceres Hernandez, Mexico
—
TOL MANAGER
Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich Antonio
head coach
U.N MANAGER
Esteban Solari
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
2
TOL WINS
6
DRAWS
2
U.N WINS
20%
60%
20%
14 – 17
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
3.10
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
04 Mar 2026
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2 – 3
Toluca
W
17 Aug 2025
Toluca
1 – 1
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
D
30 Jan 2025
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1 – 1
Toluca
D
06 Oct 2024
Toluca
1 – 1
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
D
18 Mar 2024
Toluca
3 – 0
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
W
TOLUCA LAST 5 OVERALL
W L L W L
U.N.A.M. - PUMAS LAST 5 OVERALL
L L D W L
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–2 · result locked
TOLUCA #5
Lost · already at 30 pts
Playoffs
U.N.A.M. - PUMAS #1
Won · already at 36 pts
Playoffs
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 17 10 6 1 +17 36
L D W L D
2 Guadalajara Chivas 17 11 3 3 +16 36
L D W L D
3 Cruz Azul 17 9 6 2 +13 33
W D W D W
4 Pachuca 17 9 4 4 +6 31
L W W W L
5 Toluca 17 8 6 3 +12 30
L L W L L
6 Atlas 17 7 5 5 -2 26
L L W D W
7 Tigres UANL 17 7 4 6 +10 25
L W W D D
8 Club America 17 7 4 6 +3 25
D D L W W
9 Club Tijuana 17 5 8 4 +2 23
D W D W W
10 Leon 17 7 1 9 -10 22
L L W W W
11 Club Queretaro 17 4 8 5 -4 20
W D D W D
12 FC Juarez 17 5 4 8 -6 19
W L L L D
13 Monterrey 17 5 3 9 -2 18
L W L D L
14 Atletico San Luis 17 5 3 9 -3 18
L W L D W
15 Necaxa 17 5 3 9 -6 18
L D D L W
16 Mazatlán 17 4 3 10 -15 15
L W D L L
17 Puebla 17 3 4 10 -13 13
L L L L D
18 Santos Laguna 17 3 3 11 -18 12
W L L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+6
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Uriel Antuna
  • 90'+1
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Robert Morales
  • 88'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Juninho
  • 86'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Diego Barbosa
  • 80'
    Card · Yellow Card · Rodrigo Lopez
    Foul
  • 76'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Brian García
  • 66'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Alexis Vega
  • 66'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Jesús Ricardo Angulo
  • 66'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Víctor Guzmán
  • 63'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Sebastián Córdova
  • 57'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Victor Arteaga
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Pablo Bennevendo
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 0
  • 17'
    Card · Yellow Card · Helinho
    Foul
  • 14'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Jorge Díaz
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
TOLUCA WIN
1.58
63.3% implied
↑ best 1.64
DRAW
4.10
24.4% implied
↑ best 4.33
U.N.A.M. - PUMAS WIN
5.07
19.7% implied
↑ best 5.37

Market favors Toluca. AI projects TOLUCA 38%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS TOLUCA 38% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.58 4.00 5.25 +11.0%
1xBet 1.58 4.10 5.08 +10.3%
Bet365 1.60 4.20 5.25 +11.0%
Betano 1.60 4.10 5.20 +10.8%
Betfair 1.55 4.20 5.00 +10.0%
BetVictor 1.55 4.20 5.25 +11.0%
Dafabet 1.61 4.30 5.20 +10.8%
Marathonbet 1.56 4.10 5.15 +10.6%
Pinnacle 1.61 4.33 5.37 +11.4%
SBO 1.62 3.73 4.52 +7.9%
Superbet 1.64 4.00 4.65 +8.5%
Unibet 1.55 4.20 5.20 +10.8%
William Hill 1.55 3.80 4.75 +8.9%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.17 U 4.52
2.5 O 1.62 U 2.25
3.5 O 2.51 U 1.48
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.64 10 bks
NO
2.11 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.85
Away -0.5 2.33
Away -0.75 2.08
Away -1 1.81
Away -1.25 1.61
Away -1.5 1.47
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.