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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · TOLUCA 38%
CONF 42 FULL ANALYSIS →
Liga MX · APERTURA - 3 · MON, 03 AUG · 01:10 LOCAL
TOLUCA
5TH · 30 PTS · LAST 5:
L W L L W
FT
3 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 2-1
NECAXA
W W L D D
· 15TH · 18 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 29' Ivan López ⚽ 45+5' Everardo López ⚽ 57' Luis Jimenez (OG)
GOALS
⚽ 42' Julián Carranza
Alexis Vega
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Alexis Vega
Toluca · Captain · 90 mins
· 72% pass acc · 2 shots on
RATING
9.0
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.51
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.32
75%
BALL POSSESSION %
25%
25
TOTAL SHOTS
8
7
SHOTS ON TARGET
3
92%
PASS ACCURACY %
73%
6
CORNERS
2
KEY EVENTS 21 events
  1. 29'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Ivan López · assist Jesús Gallardo
    TOL
  2. 42'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Julián Carranza · assist Alexis Peña
    NEC
  3. 45'+4
    Card · Yellow Card
    Raúl Martínez
    NEC
  4. 45'+5
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Everardo López · assist Ivan López
    TOL
  5. 45'+7
    Card · Red Card
    Julián Carranza
    NEC
  6. 45'+7
    Card · Yellow Card
    Agustín Oliveros
    NEC
  7. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Juan Torres · assist Pedro Pedraza
    NEC
  8. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Carlos Vargas · assist Mauro Zaleta
    NEC
  9. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Javier Ruiz · assist Juan Valencia
    NEC
  10. 57'
    Goal · Own Goal
    Luis Jimenez
    TOL
  11. 59'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Jorge Díaz · assist Víctor Guzmán
    TOL
  12. 59'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Ivan López · assist Federico Viñas
    TOL
  13. 65'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Érick Gutiérrez · assist Helinho
    TOL
  14. 65'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Jesús Ricardo Angulo · assist Pavel Pérez
    TOL
  15. 67'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Lorenzo Faravelli · assist Matías Espíndola
    NEC
  16. 80'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Agustín Oliveros
    NEC
  17. 80'
    Card · Red Card
    Agustín Oliveros
    NEC
  18. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Danny Leyva · assist Francisco Méndez
    NEC
  19. 90'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Alexis Vega · assist Antonio Briseño
    TOL
  20. 90'+7
    Card · Yellow Card
    Franco Romero
    TOL
  21. 90'+7
    Card · Yellow Card
    Juan Valencia
    NEC
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
TOLUCA AVG 7.9
NECAXA AVG 6.8
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.5
xG
1.3
25.0
TOTAL SHOTS
8.0
7.0
ON TARGET
3.0
12.0
OFF TARGET
3.0
6.0
BLOCKED
2.0
POSSESSION
75.0%
POSSESSION %
25.0%
742.0
PASSES
246.0
92.0%
PASS ACCURACY
73.0%
SET PIECES
6.0
CORNERS
2.0
1.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
15.0
FOULS
10.0
0.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
0.0
RED CARDS
2.0
1.0
GK SAVES
5.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
TOLUCA 10 shots
Alexis Vega
2/4
Jesús Gallardo
1/4
Ivan López
1/2
NECAXA 1 shots
Danny Leyva
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.51 – 1.32
1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 1.5 0.0 HT 29' 45' 57' 42' H 1.51 A 1.32 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 43%
57% A
9
EVENTS LOGGED
12
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-2-1
4-2-3-1
3-4-2-1
22
LUIS GARC
 7.9
20
JESúS GAL
 7.5
6
FEDERICO
25
EVERARDO
19
SANTIAGO
 7.3
5
FRANCO RO
29
JORGE DíA
 9.0
9
ALEXIS VE
35
ÉRICK GUT
10
JESúS RIC
 7.9
21
IVAN LóPE
 7.3
12
LUIS JIME
3
AGUSTíN O
4
ALEXIS PE
33
RAúL MART
88
CARLOS VA
 7.2
6
DANNY LEY
8
LORENZO F
30
RICARDO M
10
JAVIER RU
11
JUAN TORR
9
JULIáN CA
SUBSTITUTES · TOLUCA
24
Fernando Arc...
M
15
Pavel Pérez
M
11
Helinho
F
7
Víctor Guzmá...
M
3
Antonio Bris...
D
17
Brian García
D
13
Luan
D
4
Bruno Méndez
D
1
Hugo Gonzale...
G
16
Federico Viñ...
F
COACH: Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich Antonio
SUBSTITUTES · NECAXA
90
Juan Valenci...
F
21
Matías Espín...
M
14
Mauro Zaleta
M
99
Emilio Rodri...
M
16
Pedro Pedraz...
M
17
Rogelio Cort...
M
5
Kaiky Naves
D
20
Francisco Mé...
D
1
Christopher...
G
27
Miguel Pedro...
F
COACH: Martin Varini
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
TOL · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

NEC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
TBA
~24h before kick-off
TOL MANAGER
Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich Antonio
head coach
NEC MANAGER
Martin Varini
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
8
TOL WINS
2
DRAWS
0
NEC WINS
80%
20%
25 – 8
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
3.30
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
22 Feb 2026
Necaxa
0 – 3
Toluca
W
13 Jul 2025
Toluca
3 – 1
Necaxa
W
08 Mar 2025
Toluca
5 – 2
Necaxa
W
28 Oct 2024
Necaxa
1 – 3
Toluca
W
10 Feb 2024
Necaxa
3 – 3
Toluca
D
TOLUCA LAST 5 OVERALL
L W L L W
NECAXA LAST 5 OVERALL
W W L D D
MATCH IMPACT Final 3–1 · result locked
TOLUCA #5
Won · already at 30 pts
Playoffs
NECAXA #15
Lost · already at 18 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 17 10 6 1 +17 36
L D W L D
2 Guadalajara Chivas 17 11 3 3 +16 36
L D W L D
3 Cruz Azul 17 9 6 2 +13 33
W D W D W
4 Pachuca 17 9 4 4 +6 31
L W W W L
5 Toluca 17 8 6 3 +12 30
L L W L L
6 Atlas 17 7 5 5 -2 26
L L W D W
7 Tigres UANL 17 7 4 6 +10 25
L W W D D
8 Club America 17 7 4 6 +3 25
D D L W W
9 Club Tijuana 17 5 8 4 +2 23
D W D W W
10 Leon 17 7 1 9 -10 22
L L W W W
11 Club Queretaro 17 4 8 5 -4 20
W D D W D
12 FC Juarez 17 5 4 8 -6 19
W L L L D
13 Monterrey 17 5 3 9 -2 18
L W L D L
14 Atletico San Luis 17 5 3 9 -3 18
L W L D W
15 Necaxa 17 5 3 9 -6 18
L D D L W
16 Mazatlán 17 4 3 10 -15 15
L W D L L
17 Puebla 17 3 4 10 -13 13
L L L L D
18 Santos Laguna 17 3 3 11 -18 12
W L L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+7
    Card · Yellow Card · Juan Valencia
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 90'+7
    Card · Yellow Card · Franco Romero
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 90'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Alexis Vega
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Danny Leyva
  • 80'
    Card · Red Card · Agustín Oliveros
    Foul
  • 80'
    Card · Yellow Card · Agustín Oliveros
    Foul
  • 67'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Lorenzo Faravelli
  • 65'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Jesús Ricardo Angulo
  • 65'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Érick Gutiérrez
  • 59'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Ivan López
  • 59'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Jorge Díaz
  • 57'
    Goal · Own Goal · Luis Jimenez
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Javier Ruiz
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Carlos Vargas
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Juan Torres
  • HALF TIME · 2 – 1
  • 45'+7
    Card · Yellow Card · Agustín Oliveros
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 45'+7
    Card · Red Card · Julián Carranza
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 45'+5
    Goal · Normal Goal · Everardo López
  • 45'+4
    Card · Yellow Card · Raúl Martínez
    Foul
  • 42'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Julián Carranza
  • 29'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Ivan López
14 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 14 BOOKMAKERS
TOLUCA WIN
1.45
69% implied
↑ best 1.49
DRAW
4.53
22.1% implied
↑ best 4.81
NECAXA WIN
5.94
16.8% implied
↑ best 6.26

Market favors Toluca. AI projects TOLUCA 38%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS TOLUCA 38% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.46 4.70 5.90 +12.7%
1xBet 1.45 4.50 6.18 +11.8%
888Sport 1.44 4.00 5.50 +9.8%
Bet365 1.45 4.75 6.25 +12.9%
Betano 1.47 4.60 6.00 +12.3%
Betfair 1.44 4.60 6.00 +12.3%
BetVictor 1.44 4.75 6.00 +12.9%
Dafabet 1.48 4.80 6.00 +13.2%
Marathonbet 1.44 4.50 6.15 +11.8%
Pinnacle 1.49 4.81 6.26 +13.2%
SBO 1.43 4.40 5.61 +11.3%
Superbet 1.47 4.65 5.70 +12.5%
Unibet 1.46 4.35 6.10 +11.6%
William Hill 1.44 4.00 5.50 +9.8%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.13 U 5.42
2.5 O 1.46 U 2.57
3.5 O 2.18 U 1.65
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.58 11 bks
NO
2.23 11 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 3.29
Away -0.5 2.65
Away -0.75 2.36
Away -1 2.12
Away -1.25 1.83
Away -1.5 1.64
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.