GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · TOLUCA 38%
CONF 24 FULL ANALYSIS →
Liga MX · CLAUSURA - 17 · SUN 26 APR · 01:05 LOCAL
TOLUCA
5TH · 30 PTS · LAST 5:
L L D W D
FT
4 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 1-1
LEON
L W L D D
· 10TH · 22 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 5' Sebastián Córdova ⚽ 59' Fernando Arce Juárez ⚽ 73' Jorge Díaz ⚽ 76' Nicolás Castro
GOALS
⚽ 45+3' Diber Cambindo
Jesús Gallardo
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Jesús Gallardo
Toluca · 45 mins
🅰 2 assists · 17% pass acc
RATING
8.2
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap

awaiting upload
Goals, key moments, post-match interviews
Highlightly publishes 30 min – 6 h after final whistle
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.04
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.15
42%
BALL POSSESSION %
58%
15
TOTAL SHOTS
16
7
SHOTS ON TARGET
5
75%
PASS ACCURACY %
84%
2
CORNERS
7
KEY EVENTS 24 events
  1. 5'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Sebastián Córdova · assist Alexis Vega
    TOL
  2. 21'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Luis Garcia
    TOL
  3. 22'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Franco Rossi
    TOL
  4. 23'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Emilio Rodriguez
    LEO
  5. 27'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Oswaldo Virgen · assist Franco Romero
    TOL
  6. 34'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Stiven Barreiro
    LEO
  7. 45'+3
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Diber Cambindo · assist Ismael Díaz
    LEO
  8. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Stiven Barreiro · assist Paul Bellón
    LEO
  9. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Iván Moreno · assist Bryan Colula
    LEO
  10. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Franco Rossi · assist Jorge Díaz
    TOL
  11. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Mauricio Andre Isais · assist Jesús Gallardo
    TOL
  12. 56'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Emilio Rodriguez · assist Juan Dominguez
    LEO
  13. 56'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    F. Beltran Cruz · assist Daniel Arcila
    LEO
  14. 58'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Antonio Briseño
    TOL
  15. 59'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Fernando Arce Juárez · assist Jesús Gallardo
    TOL
  16. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Erick Orta · assist Bruno Méndez
    TOL
  17. 65'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Antonio Briseño
    TOL
  18. 65'
    Card · Red Card
    Antonio Briseño
    TOL
  19. 70'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Rodrigo Echeverria · assist José Alvarado
    LEO
  20. 72'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Sebastián Córdova · assist Nicolás Castro
    TOL
  21. 73'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Jorge Díaz · assist Jesús Gallardo
    TOL
  22. 73'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Jorge Díaz
    TOL
  23. 76'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Nicolás Castro · assist Jorge Díaz
    TOL
  24. 80'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Bryan Colula
    LEO
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
TOLUCA AVG 7.9
LEON AVG 7.0
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.0
xG
1.2
15.0
TOTAL SHOTS
16.0
7.0
ON TARGET
5.0
5.0
OFF TARGET
6.0
3.0
BLOCKED
5.0
POSSESSION
42.0%
POSSESSION %
58.0%
326.0
PASSES
438.0
75.0%
PASS ACCURACY
84.0%
SET PIECES
2.0
CORNERS
7.0
1.0
OFFSIDES
1.0
DISCIPLINE
14.0
FOULS
14.0
5.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
1.0
RED CARDS
0.0
4.0
GK SAVES
3.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
TOLUCA 8 shots
Jesús Gallardo
0/2
Jorge Díaz
2/2
Sebastián Córdova
1/2
Nicolás Castro
1/1
Fernando Arce Juárez
1/1
LEON 5 shots
Diber Cambindo
1/3
Rodrigo Echeverria
0/1
Fernando Beltrán
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.04 – 1.15
0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 1.2 0.0 HT 5' 59' 73' 76' 45' H 1.04 A 1.15 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 63%
37% A
15
EVENTS LOGGED
9
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-1-4-1
4-2-3-1
4-1-4-1
22
LUIS GARC
17
MAURICIO
206
ERICK ORT
3
ANTONIO B
2
DIEGO BAR
15
PAVEL PéR
 7.6
24
FERNANDO
9
ALEXIS VE
 7.7
7
SEBASTIáN
23
OSWALDO V
27
FRANCO RO
23
OSCAR GAR
26
SALVADOR
21
STIVEN BA
2
VALENTIN
 6.7
7
IVáN MORE
 6.9
29
JOSé RODR
11
ISMAEL Dí
 6.5
6
FERNANDO
 7.2
20
RODRIGO E
99
EMILIO RO
 7.7
27
DIBER CAM
SUBSTITUTES · TOLUCA
10
Jesús Ricard...
M
33
Victor Artea...
M
184
Sebastian Ac...
M
1
Hugo Gonzale...
G
8
Nicolás Cast...
M
4
Bruno Méndez
D
29
Jorge Díaz
M
20
Jesús Gallar...
D
5
Franco Romer...
M
192
Luis Navarre...
D
COACH: Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich Antonio
SUBSTITUTES · LEON
28
David Ramíre...
M
22
Nicolás Vall...
F
16
Jordi Cortiz...
M
1
Jordan Garcí...
G
19
José Alvarad...
F
8
Juan Domingu...
M
13
Daniel Arcil...
M
25
Paul Bellón
D
4
Bryan Colula
D
18
Rogelio Fune...
F
COACH: Ignacio Ambriz
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
TOL · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

LEO · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
D. Quintero
—
TOL MANAGER
Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich Antonio
head coach
LEO MANAGER
Ignacio Ambriz
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
3
TOL WINS
6
DRAWS
1
LEO WINS
30%
60%
10%
20 – 15
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
3.50
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
05 Oct 25
Leon
2 – 4
Toluca
W
09 Feb 25
Leon
3 – 3
Toluca
D
02 Nov 24
Toluca
2 – 2
Leon
D
03 Feb 24
Toluca
4 – 1
Leon
W
21 Oct 23
Leon
1 – 0
Toluca
L
TOLUCA LAST 5 OVERALL
L L D W D
LEON LAST 5 OVERALL
L W L D D
MATCH IMPACT Final 4–1 · result locked
TOLUCA #5
Won · already at 30 pts
Playoffs
LEON #10
Lost · already at 22 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 17 10 6 1 +17 36
W W W W D
2 Guadalajara Chivas 17 11 3 3 +16 36
D D W L D
3 Cruz Azul 17 9 6 2 +13 33
W D D D L
4 Pachuca 17 9 4 4 +6 31
L L W W W
5 Toluca 17 8 6 3 +12 30
W L L D L
6 Atlas 17 7 5 5 -2 26
W D W D L
7 Tigres UANL 17 7 4 6 +10 25
W D D W L
8 Club America 17 7 4 6 +3 25
L W W D D
9 Club Tijuana 17 5 8 4 +2 23
D W D W W
10 Leon 17 7 1 9 -10 22
L L W W W
11 Club Queretaro 17 4 8 5 -4 20
W D D W D
12 FC Juarez 17 5 4 8 -6 19
W L L L D
13 Monterrey 17 5 3 9 -2 18
L W L D L
14 Atletico San Luis 17 5 3 9 -3 18
L W L D W
15 Necaxa 17 5 3 9 -6 18
L D D L W
16 Mazatlán 17 4 3 10 -15 15
L W D L L
17 Puebla 17 3 4 10 -13 13
L L L L D
18 Santos Laguna 17 3 3 11 -18 12
W L L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 80'
    Card · Yellow Card · Bryan Colula
  • 76'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Nicolás Castro
  • 73'
    Card · Yellow Card · Jorge Díaz
  • 73'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Jorge Díaz
  • 72'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Sebastián Córdova
  • 70'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Rodrigo Echeverria
  • 65'
    Card · Red Card · Antonio Briseño
  • 65'
    Card · Yellow Card · Antonio Briseño
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Erick Orta
  • 59'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Fernando Arce Juárez
  • 58'
    Card · Yellow Card · Antonio Briseño
  • 56'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · F. Beltran Cruz
  • 56'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Emilio Rodriguez
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Mauricio Andre Isais
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Franco Rossi
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Iván Moreno
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Stiven Barreiro
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 1
  • 45'+3
    Goal · Normal Goal · Diber Cambindo
  • 34'
    Card · Yellow Card · Stiven Barreiro
  • 27'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Oswaldo Virgen
  • 23'
    Card · Yellow Card · Emilio Rodriguez
  • 22'
    Card · Yellow Card · Franco Rossi
  • 21'
    Card · Yellow Card · Luis Garcia
  • 5'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Sebastián Córdova
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
TOLUCA WIN
1.58
63.3% implied
↑ best 1.65
DRAW
4.26
23.5% implied
↑ best 4.60
LEON WIN
4.93
20.3% implied
↑ best 6.50

Market favors Toluca. AI projects TOLUCA 38%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS TOLUCA 38% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.61 4.30 4.65 +8.7%
1xBet 1.62 4.30 4.46 +8.7%
888Sport 1.33 4.60 6.50 +14.6%
Bet365 1.62 4.00 5.25 +11.0%
Betano 1.65 4.25 5.50 +11.8%
Betfair 1.60 4.33 4.75 +8.9%
BetVictor 1.60 4.20 4.80 +9.2%
Dafabet 1.63 4.40 4.80 +9.3%
Marathonbet 1.60 4.30 4.50 +8.7%
Pinnacle 1.61 4.57 5.07 +10.3%
SBO 1.61 3.95 4.30 +6.7%
Unibet 1.56 4.20 5.10 +10.4%
William Hill 1.55 4.00 4.40 +7.3%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.14 U 5.23
2.5 O 1.48 U 2.50
3.5 O 2.25 U 1.61
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.55 10 bks
NO
2.28 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.74
Away -0.5 2.32
Away -0.75 2.04
Away -1 1.79
Away -1.25 1.60
Away -1.5 1.49
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.