GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · STOKE CITY 45% · Value: BTTS Yes 65%
CONF 38 FULL ANALYSIS →
Championship · REGULAR SEASON - 45 · SAT, 25 APR · 14:00 LOCAL
STOKE CITY
17TH · 55 PTS · LAST 5:
L L L D L
FT
1 – 3
FULL TIME HT · 0-1
PORTSMOUTH
D L W W W
· 18TH · 55 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 48' Lamine Cissé
GOALS
⚽ 32' Adrian Segečić ⚽ 67' Adrian Segečić ⚽ 82' Adrian Segečić
Adrian Segečić
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Adrian Segečić
Portsmouth · 94 mins
⚽ 3 goals · 9% pass acc · 3 shots on
RATING
10.0
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 3 CLIPS

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Championship: Stoke City vs Portsmouth FC
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Championship: Stoke City vs Portsmouth FC
Championship: Stoke City vs Portsmouth FC
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.57
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.26
46%
BALL POSSESSION %
54%
13
TOTAL SHOTS
8
3
SHOTS ON TARGET
4
69%
PASS ACCURACY %
79%
8
CORNERS
1
KEY EVENTS 16 events
  1. 4'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    J. Bursik · assist Ben Killip
    POR
  2. 32'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Adrian Segečić · assist H. Blair
    POR
  3. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Sam Gallagher · assist Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
    STO
  4. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Eric Bocat · assist Ben Gibson
    STO
  5. 48'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Lamine Cissé · assist Sorba Thomas
    STO
  6. 61'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Hayden Matthews
    POR
  7. 61'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Hayden Matthews · assist Ibane Bowat
    POR
  8. 62'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    H. Blair · assist J. Murphy
    POR
  9. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Sydney Agina · assist Junior Tchamadeu
    STO
  10. 67'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Adrian Segečić · assist J. Murphy
    POR
  11. 71'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Ben Pearson · assist Steven​ N'Zonzi
    STO
  12. 78'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    John Swift · assist Jacob Brown
    POR
  13. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    C. Bishop · assist Thomas Waddingham
    POR
  14. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    R. Otegbayo · assist Million Manhoef
    STO
  15. 82'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Adrian Segečić
    POR
  16. 82'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Adrian Segečić
    POR
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
STOKE CITY AVG 7.1
PORTSMOUTH AVG 7.8
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.6
xG
1.3
13.0
TOTAL SHOTS
8.0
3.0
ON TARGET
4.0
4.0
OFF TARGET
3.0
6.0
BLOCKED
1.0
POSSESSION
46.0%
POSSESSION %
54.0%
289.0
PASSES
354.0
69.0%
PASS ACCURACY
79.0%
SET PIECES
8.0
CORNERS
1.0
2.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
9.0
FOULS
13.0
0.0
YELLOW CARDS
2.0
1.0
GK SAVES
2.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
STOKE CITY 4 shots
Lamine Cissé
2/3
Tatsuki Seko
0/1
PORTSMOUTH 5 shots
Adrian Segečić
3/4
J. Murphy
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.57 – 1.26
1.3 0.9 0.6 0.3 1.6 0.0 HT 48' 32' 67' 82' H 1.57 A 1.26 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 38%
62% A
6
EVENTS LOGGED
10
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
25
TOMMY SIM
17
ERIC BOCA
54
R. OTEGBA
26
ASHLEY PH
50
SYDNEY AG
 6.9
12
TATSUKI S
4
BEN PEARS
 8.2
7
SORBA THO
20
SAM GALLA
 7.0
29
LAMINE CI
11
RóBERT BO
26
J. BURSIK
3
CONNOR OG
 7.2
55
M. DIA
14
HAYDEN MA
2
JORDAN LE
16
LUKE LE R
 7.2
21
ANDRE DOZ
29
H. BLAIR
8
JOHN SWIF
 10.0
10
ADRIAN SE
9
C. BISHOP
SUBSTITUTES · STOKE CITY
10
Jun-Ho Bae
M
21
Jesurun Rak-...
F
15
Steven​ N'Zo...
M
8
Lewis Baker
M
42
Million Manh...
F
23
Ben Gibson
D
22
Junior Tcham...
D
34
F. Fielding
G
49
Milan Smit
F
COACH: Mark Robins
SUBSTITUTES · PORTSMOUTH
40
Jacob Brown
F
36
Conor Chapli...
F
38
Ebou Adams
M
23
J. Murphy
M
27
Millenic All...
F
5
Regan Poole
D
17
Ibane Bowat
D
30
Ben Killip
G
20
Thomas Waddi...
F
COACH: John Mousinho
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
STO · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

POR · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
David Webb, England
—
STO MANAGER
Mark Robins
head coach
POR MANAGER
John Mousinho
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
3
STO WINS
0
DRAWS
1
POR WINS
75%
25%
11 – 4
TOTAL GOALS · 4 MEETINGS
3.75
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 3 / 4
25 Oct 2025
Portsmouth
0 – 1
Stoke City
W
22 Jan 2025
Portsmouth
3 – 1
Stoke City
L
02 Oct 2024
Stoke City
6 – 1
Portsmouth
W
STOKE CITY LAST 5 OVERALL
L L L D L
PORTSMOUTH LAST 5 OVERALL
D L W W W
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–3 · result locked
STOKE CITY #17
Lost · already at 55 pts
PORTSMOUTH #18
Won · already at 55 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Coventry 46 28 11 7 +52 95
W W W D D
2 Ipswich 46 23 15 8 +33 84
W D D W D
3 Millwall 46 24 11 11 +15 83
L D W D W
4 Southampton 46 22 14 10 +26 80
W D W D D
5 Middlesbrough 46 22 14 10 +25 80
L L D D W
6 Hull City 46 21 10 15 +4 73
W W D W L
7 Wrexham 46 19 14 13 +4 71
D L W W L
8 Derby 46 20 9 17 +8 69
L W L W L
9 Norwich 46 19 8 19 +7 65
L D W W L
10 Birmingham 46 17 13 16 +1 64
D W W D W
11 Swansea 46 18 10 18 -2 64
W D W L W
12 Bristol City 46 17 11 18 0 62
W L D L D
13 Sheffield Utd 46 18 6 22 0 60
W L L W W
14 Preston 46 15 15 16 -7 60
L W L L W
15 QPR 46 16 10 20 -12 58
L L L L D
16 Watford 46 14 15 17 -12 57
L L L L L
17 Stoke City 46 15 10 21 -5 55
L L L L D
18 Portsmouth 46 14 13 19 -15 55
D W L W W
19 Charlton 46 13 14 19 -14 53
L W L D L
20 Blackburn 46 13 13 20 -14 52
L W D L D
21 West Brom 46 13 14 19 -10 51
L D W W D
22 Oxford United 46 11 14 21 -14 47
L W L L W
23 Leicester 46 12 16 18 -10 46
W D D L L
24 Sheffield Wednesday 46 2 12 32 -60 0
W L L D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 82'
    Card · Yellow Card · Adrian Segečić
  • 82'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Adrian Segečić
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · R. Otegbayo
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · C. Bishop
  • 78'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · John Swift
  • 71'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Ben Pearson
  • 67'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Adrian Segečić
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Sydney Agina
  • 62'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · H. Blair
  • 61'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Hayden Matthews
  • 61'
    Card · Yellow Card · Hayden Matthews
  • 48'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Lamine Cissé
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Eric Bocat
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Sam Gallagher
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 1
  • 32'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Adrian Segečić
  • 4'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · J. Bursik
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
STOKE CITY WIN
2.64
37.9% implied
↑ best 2.75
DRAW
3.31
30.2% implied
↑ best 3.45
PORTSMOUTH WIN
2.60
38.5% implied
↑ best 2.69

Market favors Portsmouth. AI projects STOKE CITY 45% · value bet BTTS Yes.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS STOKE CITY 45% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.60 3.35 2.60 +12.1%
1xBet 2.61 3.28 2.60 +11.5%
888Sport 2.75 3.00 2.50 +8.7%
Bet365 2.62 3.30 2.62 +11.7%
Betano 2.67 3.35 2.65 +12.1%
Betfair 2.63 3.40 2.63 +12.6%
BetVictor 2.63 3.40 2.60 +12.6%
Dafabet 2.65 3.45 2.65 +13.0%
Marathonbet 2.61 3.28 2.60 +11.5%
Pinnacle 2.68 3.41 2.69 +12.7%
SBO 2.57 3.25 2.54 +11.2%
Unibet 2.65 3.35 2.55 +12.1%
William Hill 2.60 3.25 2.62 +11.2%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.27 U 3.57
2.5 O 1.88 U 1.90
3.5 O 3.16 U 1.33
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.66 10 bks
NO
2.12 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.62
Away -0.5 1.48
Away -0.75 1.33
Away -1 1.18
Away -1.25 1.14
Away -1.5 1.12
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.