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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–0 · ST. LOUIS CITY 42%
CONF 28 FULL ANALYSIS →
Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 10 · SUN, 26 APR · 00:30 LOCAL
ST. LOUIS CITY
12TH · 16 PTS · LAST 5:
W D W W L
FT
2 – 3
FULL TIME HT · 0-1
SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES
W L L D D
· 2ND · 32 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 51' Sergio Córdova ⚽ 54' Marcel Hartel
GOALS
⚽ 8' Preston Judd ⚽ 69' T. Werner (P) ⚽ 83' T. Werner
Christopher Durkin
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Christopher Durkin
St. Louis City · 99 mins
· 43% pass acc
RATING
9.0
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 1 CLIP

powered by Highlightly
Major League Soccer: St. Louis City SC vs San Jose Earthquakes
Open in Youtube ↗
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

2.33
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.50
57%
BALL POSSESSION %
43%
21
TOTAL SHOTS
9
5
SHOTS ON TARGET
3
85%
PASS ACCURACY %
77%
11
CORNERS
3
KEY EVENTS 19 events
  1. 8'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Preston Judd
    SAN
  2. 24'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    E. Edwards · assist Daniel
    SAN
  3. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Jonathan Gonzalez · assist Ronaldo Vieira
    SAN
  4. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Jack Skahan · assist Niko Tsakiris
    SAN
  5. 51'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Sergio Córdova
    ST.
  6. 54'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Marcel Hartel · assist Simon Becher
    ST.
  7. 59'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Preston Judd
    SAN
  8. 61'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Nick Fernandez · assist Ousseni Bouda
    SAN
  9. 69'
    Goal · Penalty
    T. Werner
    SAN
  10. 70'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Max Floriani · assist Jamar Ricketts
    SAN
  11. 75'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Daniel
    SAN
  12. 75'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Sergio Córdova · assist Brendan McSorley
    ST.
  13. 81'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Simon Becher · assist Cedric Teuchert
    ST.
  14. 83'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    T. Werner · assist Ousseni Bouda
    SAN
  15. 84'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Jamar Ricketts
    SAN
  16. 84'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Christopher Durkin
    ST.
  17. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Tomas Totland · assist Rafael Santos
    ST.
  18. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Daniel Edelman · assist Eduard Löwen
    ST.
  19. 90'+5
    Card · Yellow Card
    Dante Polvara
    ST.
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
ST. LOUIS CITY AVG 8.0
SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES AVG 7.4
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
2.3
xG
1.5
21.0
TOTAL SHOTS
9.0
5.0
ON TARGET
3.0
12.0
OFF TARGET
2.0
4.0
BLOCKED
4.0
POSSESSION
57.0%
POSSESSION %
43.0%
439.0
PASSES
344.0
85.0%
PASS ACCURACY
77.0%
SET PIECES
11.0
CORNERS
3.0
1.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
11.0
FOULS
12.0
2.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
0.0
GK SAVES
3.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
ST. LOUIS CITY 7 shots
Marcel Hartel
2/6
Sergio Córdova
1/1
SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES 3 shots
T. Werner
2/2
Preston Judd
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 2.33 – 1.50
1.9 1.4 0.9 0.5 2.3 0.0 HT 51' 54' 8' 69' 83' H 2.33 A 1.50 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 42%
58% A
8
EVENTS LOGGED
11
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-4-3 vs 4-2-3-1
3-4-3
4-2-3-1
1
ROMAN BüR
21
DANTE POL
32
TIMO BAUM
5
LUKAS MAC
6
CONRAD WA
 7.0
24
DANIEL ED
 9.0
8
CHRISTOPH
14
TOMAS TOT
 8.9
17
MARCEL HA
 7.6
16
SERGIO Có
11
SIMON BEC
 7.2
36
E. EDWARD
 7.2
4
DAVE ROMN
25
MAX FLORI
5
DANIEL MU
17
JACK JASI
40
JONATHAN
6
IAN HARKE
 7.9
11
T. WERNER
20
NICK FERN
16
JACK SKAH
 7.3
19
PRESTON J
SUBSTITUTES · ST. LOUIS CITY
59
Mykhi Joyner
M
4
Mamadou Mbac...
D
27
Fallou Fall
D
39
Benjamin Lun...
G
20
Rafael Santo...
D
10
Eduard Löwen
M
36
Cedric Teuch...
F
80
Brendan McSo...
F
28
Miguel Perez
M
COACH: Yoann Damet
SUBSTITUTES · SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES
34
Beau Leroux
M
21
Noel Buck
M
18
Reid Roberts
D
2
Jamar Ricket...
D
7
Ousseni Boud...
F
10
Niko Tsakiri...
M
14
Ronaldo Viei...
M
42
Daniel
G
3
Paul Marie
D
COACH: Bruce Arena
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
ST. · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

SAN · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
D. Fischer
—
ST. MANAGER
Yoann Damet
head coach
SAN MANAGER
Bruce Arena
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
6
ST. WINS
0
DRAWS
1
SAN WINS
85.7%
14.3%
15 – 6
TOTAL GOALS · 7 MEETINGS
3.00
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 7
21 Sep 2025
San Jose Earthquakes
1 – 3
St. Louis City
W
31 May 2025
St. Louis City
2 – 1
San Jose Earthquakes
W
22 Sep 2024
San Jose Earthquakes
1 – 2
St. Louis City
W
04 Jul 2024
St. Louis City
2 – 0
San Jose Earthquakes
W
25 Jun 2023
San Jose Earthquakes
1 – 2
St. Louis City
W
ST. LOUIS CITY LAST 5 OVERALL
W D W W L
SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES LAST 5 OVERALL
W L L D D
MATCH IMPACT Final 2–3 · result locked
ST. LOUIS CITY #12
Lost · already at 16 pts
SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES #2
Won · already at 32 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 14 10 2 2 +22 32
W L W D D
1 Nashville SC 14 10 3 1 +20 33
W W W D D
2 San Jose Earthquakes 15 10 2 3 +19 32
W L L D D
2 Inter Miami 15 9 4 2 +11 31
W W W W L
3 Real Salt Lake 14 8 2 4 +7 26
D W W L W
3 Chicago Fire 14 8 2 4 +11 26
W W W L L
4 New England Revolution 14 8 1 5 +4 25
L W L W W
4 FC Dallas 15 7 4 4 +8 25
W W L W W
5 Los Angeles FC 15 7 3 5 +7 24
W L L L D
5 New York Red Bulls 15 6 4 5 -7 22
W D W W L
6 Seattle Sounders 13 7 3 3 +6 24
L L W D D
6 Charlotte 15 6 3 6 +1 21
W W L D L
7 Houston Dynamo 14 7 1 6 -4 22
D W L W W
7 FC Cincinnati 15 5 5 5 -1 20
W D L D W
8 New York City FC 15 5 4 6 +4 19
L D W W L
8 Minnesota United FC 15 6 4 5 -4 22
D L L D W
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 15 5 5 5 0 20
D W L W D
9 DC United 15 4 6 5 -4 18
D D L D W
10 San Diego 15 4 5 6 +3 17
L D W D D
10 Columbus Crew 15 4 4 7 -2 16
W D L L L
11 Colorado Rapids 15 5 1 9 +1 16
L L W L L
11 CF Montreal 14 4 2 8 -9 14
D L D W L
12 Orlando City SC 15 4 2 9 -21 14
L D W L W
12 St. Louis City 14 4 4 6 -4 16
W D W W L
13 Portland Timbers 14 4 2 8 -6 14
L L D W L
13 Toronto FC 14 3 5 6 -7 14
L L L D L
14 Austin 15 3 5 7 -12 14
L L L D W
14 Atlanta United FC 14 3 2 9 -9 11
L D L W W
15 Sporting Kansas City 14 3 2 9 -22 11
L W W L D
15 Philadelphia Union 15 1 4 10 -12 7
L D L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+5
    Card · Yellow Card · Dante Polvara
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Daniel Edelman
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Tomas Totland
  • 84'
    Card · Yellow Card · Christopher Durkin
  • 84'
    Card · Yellow Card · Jamar Ricketts
  • 83'
    Goal · Normal Goal · T. Werner
  • 81'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Simon Becher
  • 75'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Sergio Córdova
  • 75'
    Card · Yellow Card · Daniel
  • 70'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Max Floriani
  • 69'
    Goal · Penalty · T. Werner
  • 61'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Nick Fernandez
  • 59'
    Card · Yellow Card · Preston Judd
  • 54'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Marcel Hartel
  • 51'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Sergio Córdova
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Jack Skahan
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Jonathan Gonzalez
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 1
  • 24'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · E. Edwards
  • 8'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Preston Judd
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
ST. LOUIS CITY WIN
2.36
42.4% implied
↑ best 2.55
DRAW
3.76
26.6% implied
↑ best 4.00
SAN JOSE EARTHQU WIN
2.69
37.2% implied
↑ best 2.90

Market favors St. Louis City. AI projects ST. LOUIS CITY 42%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS ST. LOUIS CITY 42% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.50 3.80 2.48 +5.7%
888Sport 2.30 3.40 2.80 +2.6%
Bet365 2.50 3.75 2.60 +5.3%
Betano 2.22 3.95 2.90 +6.7%
Betfair 2.10 4.00 2.88 +7.0%
BetVictor 2.40 3.70 2.63 +5.0%
Dafabet 2.55 3.80 2.60 +5.7%
Marathonbet 2.17 3.88 2.83 +6.2%
Pinnacle 2.54 3.95 2.59 +6.7%
SBO 2.46 3.50 2.52 +3.4%
Unibet 2.38 3.65 2.70 +4.6%
William Hill 2.15 3.70 2.80 +5.0%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.16 U 4.89
2.5 O 1.57 U 2.35
3.5 O 2.39 U 1.54
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.48 9 bks
NO
2.50 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.74
Away -0.5 1.56
Away -0.75 1.43
Away -1 1.29
Away -1.25 1.23
Away -1.5 1.19
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.