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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–0 · ST. LOUIS CITY 42%
CONF 28 FULL ANALYSIS →
Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 10 · SUN 26 APR · 00:30 LOCAL
ST. LOUIS CITY
14TH · 6 PTS · LAST 5:
L W W W W
FT
2 – 3
FULL TIME HT · 0-1
SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES
W W L L L
· 1ST · 27 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 51' Sergio Córdova ⚽ 54' Marcel Hartel
GOALS
⚽ 8' Preston Judd ⚽ 69' Timo Werner (P) ⚽ 83' Timo Werner
Christopher Durkin
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Christopher Durkin
St. Louis City · 99 mins
· 43% pass acc
RATING
9.0
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 7 CLIPS

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📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

2.33
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.50
57%
BALL POSSESSION %
43%
21
TOTAL SHOTS
9
5
SHOTS ON TARGET
3
85%
PASS ACCURACY %
77%
11
CORNERS
3
KEY EVENTS 19 events
  1. 8'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Preston Judd
    SAN
  2. 24'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Earl Edwards Jr. · assist Daniel
    SAN
  3. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Jonathan Gonzalez · assist Ronaldo Vieira
    SAN
  4. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Jack Skahan · assist Niko Tsakiris
    SAN
  5. 51'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Sergio Córdova
    ST.
  6. 54'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Marcel Hartel · assist Simon Becher
    ST.
  7. 59'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Preston Judd
    SAN
  8. 61'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Nick Fernandez · assist Ousseni Bouda
    SAN
  9. 69'
    Goal · Penalty
    Timo Werner
    SAN
  10. 70'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Max Floriani · assist Jamar Ricketts
    SAN
  11. 75'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Daniel
    SAN
  12. 75'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Sergio Córdova · assist Brendan McSorley
    ST.
  13. 81'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Simon Becher · assist Cedric Teuchert
    ST.
  14. 83'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Timo Werner · assist Ousseni Bouda
    SAN
  15. 84'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Jamar Ricketts
    SAN
  16. 84'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Christopher Durkin
    ST.
  17. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Tomas Totland · assist Rafael Santos
    ST.
  18. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Daniel Edelman · assist Eduard Löwen
    ST.
  19. 90'+5
    Card · Yellow Card
    Dante Polvara
    ST.
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
ST. LOUIS CITY AVG 8.0
SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES AVG 7.4
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
2.3
xG
1.5
21.0
TOTAL SHOTS
9.0
5.0
ON TARGET
3.0
12.0
OFF TARGET
2.0
4.0
BLOCKED
4.0
POSSESSION
57.0%
POSSESSION %
43.0%
439.0
PASSES
344.0
85.0%
PASS ACCURACY
77.0%
SET PIECES
11.0
CORNERS
3.0
1.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
11.0
FOULS
12.0
2.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
0.0
GK SAVES
3.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
ST. LOUIS CITY 7 shots
Marcel Hartel
2/6
Sergio Córdova
1/1
SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES 3 shots
Timo Werner
2/2
Preston Judd
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 2.33 – 1.50
1.9 1.4 0.9 0.5 2.3 0.0 HT 51' 54' 8' 69' 83' H 2.33 A 1.50 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 42%
58% A
8
EVENTS LOGGED
11
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-4-3 vs 4-2-3-1
3-4-3
4-2-3-1
1
ROMAN BüR
21
DANTE POL
32
TIMO BAUM
5
LUKAS MAC
6
CONRAD WA
 7.0
24
DANIEL ED
 9.0
8
CHRISTOPH
14
TOMAS TOT
 8.9
17
MARCEL HA
 7.6
16
SERGIO Có
11
SIMON BEC
 7.2
36
EARL EDWA
 7.2
4
DAVE ROMN
 7.2
25
MAX FLORI
5
DANIEL MU
17
JACK JASI
40
JONATHAN
6
IAN HARKE
 7.9
11
TIMO WERN
20
NICK FERN
16
JACK SKAH
 7.3
19
PRESTON J
SUBSTITUTES · ST. LOUIS CITY
59
Mykhi Joyner
M
4
Mamadou Mbac...
D
27
Fallou Fall
D
39
Benjamin Lun...
G
20
Rafael Santo...
D
10
Eduard Löwen
M
36
Cedric Teuch...
F
80
Brendan McSo...
F
28
Miguel Perez
M
COACH: Yoann Damet
SUBSTITUTES · SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES
34
Beau Leroux
M
21
Noel Buck
M
18
Reid Roberts
D
2
Jamar Ricket...
D
7
Ousseni Boud...
F
10
Niko Tsakiri...
M
14
Ronaldo Viei...
M
42
Daniel
G
3
Paul Marie
D
COACH: Bruce Arena
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
ST. · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

SAN · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
D. Fischer
—
ST. MANAGER
Yoann Damet
head coach
SAN MANAGER
Bruce Arena
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
6
ST. WINS
0
DRAWS
1
SAN WINS
85.7%
14.3%
15 – 6
TOTAL GOALS · 7 MEETINGS
3.00
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 7
21 Sep 25
San Jose Earthquakes
1 – 3
St. Louis City
W
31 May 25
St. Louis City
2 – 1
San Jose Earthquakes
W
22 Sep 24
San Jose Earthquakes
1 – 2
St. Louis City
W
04 Jul 24
St. Louis City
2 – 0
San Jose Earthquakes
W
25 Jun 23
San Jose Earthquakes
1 – 2
St. Louis City
W
ST. LOUIS CITY LAST 5 OVERALL
L W W W W
SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES LAST 5 OVERALL
W W L L L
MATCH IMPACT Final 2–3 · result locked
ST. LOUIS CITY #14
Lost · already at 6 pts
SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES #1
Won · already at 27 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 San Jose Earthquakes 10 9 0 1 +19 27
W W W W W
1 Nashville SC 9 7 1 1 +15 22
W W W L W
2 Vancouver Whitecaps 9 8 0 1 +20 24
W W W W L
2 Inter Miami 10 5 4 1 +4 19
D W W D D
3 Los Angeles FC 10 6 2 2 +11 20
W D L L W
3 Chicago Fire 9 5 2 2 +9 17
W D W W W
4 New England Revolution 9 5 1 3 +5 16
D W W W W
4 Seattle Sounders 8 6 1 1 +8 19
W W W D W
5 Minnesota United FC 10 5 2 3 -3 17
L W W W W
5 Charlotte 10 4 2 4 0 14
L L W L W
6 Real Salt Lake 9 5 1 3 +3 16
L L W W D
6 Toronto FC 10 3 4 3 -2 13
L D D D W
7 Colorado Rapids 10 4 1 5 +4 13
L D L W L
7 New York City FC 10 3 3 4 +3 12
L D L L D
8 Columbus Crew 10 3 3 4 +1 12
W W L D W
8 FC Dallas 10 3 4 3 +3 13
L L D D W
9 Houston Dynamo 9 4 0 5 -6 12
L W W L L
9 FC Cincinnati 10 3 3 4 -4 12
W D D D L
10 Los Angeles Galaxy 10 3 3 4 -1 12
W L D W L
10 DC United 10 3 3 4 -4 12
W D D L L
11 San Diego 10 3 2 5 0 11
L L L L L
11 New York Red Bulls 10 3 3 4 -9 12
L D L D W
12 CF Montreal 9 3 0 6 -7 9
W W L L L
12 Portland Timbers 9 3 1 5 -6 10
W L W L D
13 Austin 10 2 4 4 -5 10
W L D L D
13 Atlanta United FC 10 2 1 7 -8 7
W L L L L
14 St. Louis City 9 1 3 5 -7 6
L L D D W
14 Orlando City SC 10 2 1 7 -17 7
L W L D L
15 Sporting Kansas City 9 1 1 7 -18 4
L L L L L
15 Philadelphia Union 10 1 2 7 -8 5
L D D W L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+5
    Card · Yellow Card · Dante Polvara
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Daniel Edelman
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Tomas Totland
  • 84'
    Card · Yellow Card · Christopher Durkin
  • 84'
    Card · Yellow Card · Jamar Ricketts
  • 83'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Timo Werner
  • 81'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Simon Becher
  • 75'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Sergio Córdova
  • 75'
    Card · Yellow Card · Daniel
  • 70'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Max Floriani
  • 69'
    Goal · Penalty · Timo Werner
  • 61'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Nick Fernandez
  • 59'
    Card · Yellow Card · Preston Judd
  • 54'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Marcel Hartel
  • 51'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Sergio Córdova
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Jack Skahan
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Jonathan Gonzalez
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 1
  • 24'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Earl Edwards Jr.
  • 8'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Preston Judd
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
ST. LOUIS CITY WIN
2.36
42.4% implied
↑ best 2.55
DRAW
3.76
26.6% implied
↑ best 4.00
SAN JOSE EARTHQU WIN
2.69
37.2% implied
↑ best 2.90

Market favors St. Louis City. AI projects ST. LOUIS CITY 42%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS ST. LOUIS CITY 42% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.50 3.80 2.48 +5.7%
888Sport 2.30 3.40 2.80 +2.6%
Bet365 2.50 3.75 2.60 +5.3%
Betano 2.22 3.95 2.90 +6.7%
Betfair 2.10 4.00 2.88 +7.0%
BetVictor 2.40 3.70 2.63 +5.0%
Dafabet 2.55 3.80 2.60 +5.7%
Marathonbet 2.17 3.88 2.83 +6.2%
Pinnacle 2.54 3.95 2.59 +6.7%
SBO 2.46 3.50 2.52 +3.4%
Unibet 2.38 3.65 2.70 +4.6%
William Hill 2.15 3.70 2.80 +5.0%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.16 U 4.89
2.5 O 1.57 U 2.35
3.5 O 2.39 U 1.54
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.48 9 bks
NO
2.50 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.74
Away -0.5 1.56
Away -0.75 1.43
Away -1 1.29
Away -1.25 1.23
Away -1.5 1.19
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.