GOALSENSE
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Primeira Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 2 · FRI, 14 AUG · 19:15 LOCAL
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SPORTING CP
FT
3 – 2
FULL TIME
GUIMARAES
⚽ 9' Flávio Gonçalves ⚽ 22' Fotis Ioannidis ⚽ 41' Sergi Altimira
GOALS
⚽ 66' Samu ⚽ 69' Alioune Ndoye
CLAUDE AI · BLENDED FROM 4 MODELS
FINAL · VERIFIED
CONF 52/100 MED
🔮 PREDICTED FULL-TIME SCORE
SPO
2 – 0
GUI
most likely scoreline · 13.1% probability
AI PICKS SPORTING CP TO WIN 58%
FT 3 – 2
→
🤖 AI PROJECTED FT 2 – 0
🤖 AI BREAKDOWN

HOW AI SEES THE MATCH

FINAL · VERIFIED
SPO WIN 58%
DRAW 28%
GUI WIN 14%
h + d + a = 100% · stacked share
💰 AI BETTING TIP
OVER 1.5

AI projects 77.83% — the safest goals market. Combined value over single 1X2 pick at this confidence.

CONF 78% OVER 1.5 ✓ 4 models
🤖 AI ANALYSIS

Early scoreless tie; Sporting home favourite but Guimaraes' poor away form and recent collapse suggest defensive caution.

🤖 AI REASONING why AI picked this
WHY SPORTING CP FAVORED
58%
H2H strongly favours Sporting (4-0-1 W-D-L last 5, including 5-1 and 4-4)
+25.0%
Sporting home form (WWDLL recent) mixed but H2H dominance at this venue overwhelming
+20.0%
WHY GUIMARAES CHALLENGED
14%
Early scoreless tie; Sporting home favourite but Guimaraes' poor away form and recent collapse suggest defensive caution.
+30.0%
Guimaraes on terrible away run (LLWDL) and in freefall overall (LLLLW) — likely to concede
+15.0%
🤖 CONTEXT · NEUTRAL FACTORS
  • H2H strongly favours Sporting (4-0-1 W-D-L last 5, including 5-1 and 4-4)
  • Sporting home form (WWDLL recent) mixed but H2H dominance at this venue overwhelming
🤖 AI LIVE TIMELINE

PROBABILITY TIMELINE

How AI re-projects after each event
H DRAW A
100% 50% 0% KO 15' 30' HT 60' 75' FT ⚽ 9' FLáVIO GO ⚽ 22' FOTIS IOAN ⚽ 41' SERGI ALTI ⚽ 66' SAMU ⚽ 69' ALIOUNE ND
Probabilities re-blended at each event · 5 events marked → Derived from goal events + remaining time
🤖 AI SCORE MATRIX

SCORELINE PROBABILITY

All possible scorelines · Poisson from xG
0% 13.1%+
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
5.5
4.0
1.4
0.3
0.1
·
·
1
12.0
8.6
3.1
0.8
0.1
·
·
2
13.1
9.4
3.4
0.8
0.2
·
·
3
9.5
6.8
2.5
0.6
0.1
·
·
4
5.2
3.7
1.3
0.3
0.1
·
·
5
2.3
1.6
0.6
0.1
·
·
·
6+
0.8
0.6
0.2
·
·
·
·
MOST LIKELY · TOP 5
2 — 0 13.1%
1 — 0 12.0%
3 — 0 9.5%
2 — 1 9.4%
1 — 1 8.6%
Top 5 = 52.6% · rest 47.4%
🤖 AI VALUE FINDER

VALUE BETS

Where AI sees an edge vs bookmaker odds
8 markets · pre-match avg odds
MARKETODDSAI PROBFAIREDGE
Draw
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
5.29
28.0%
3.57
+48.2%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
3.28
42.0%
2.38
+37.8%
AWAY to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
8.40
14.0%
7.14
+17.6%
Over 2.5 Goals
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.55
62.0%
1.61
-3.8%
—
HOME or Draw (1X)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.07
86.0%
1.16
-8.4%
—
HOME or AWAY (12)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.14
72.0%
1.39
-18.2%
—
HOME to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.32
58.0%
1.72
-23.2%
—
Both Teams Score — YES
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.84
38.0%
2.63
-30.1%
—
⚠ 18+ only. Odds change frequently. AI predictions are not guarantees. Bet responsibly.