GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 2–2 · SAN DIEGO 48% · Value: Over 2.5 72%
CONF 58 FULL ANALYSIS →
Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 15 · SUN, 17 MAY · 01:30 LOCAL
SAN DIEGO
11TH · 27 PTS · LAST 5:
W L W D W
FT
3 – 3
FULL TIME HT · 1-1
FC CINCINNATI
D W D W L
· 6TH · 31 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 32' Marcus Ingvartsen ⚽ 66' Amahl Pellegrino ⚽ 90+6' Marcus Ingvartsen
GOALS
⚽ 11' Kenji Mboma Dem ⚽ 50' Tom Barlow ⚽ 90+8' Tom Barlow
Evander
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Evander
FC Cincinnati · Captain · 90 mins
🅰 2 assists · 32% pass acc · 2 shots on
RATING
8.6
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 2 CLIPS

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San Diego FC vs. FC Cincinnati | Full Match Highlights | UNBELIEVABLE THRILLING FINISH!
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Major League Soccer: San Diego vs FC Cincinnati
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

125%
BALL POSSESSION %
87%
16
TOTAL SHOTS
8
5
SHOTS ON TARGET
6
646%
PASS ACCURACY %
357%
7
CORNERS
2
KEY EVENTS 20 events
  1. 11'
    Goal · 0-1
    Kenji Mboma Dem · assist Evander
    FC
  2. 24'
    Card · Foul
    FC
  3. 32'
    Goal · 1-1
    Marcus Ingvartsen · assist Kieran Sargeant
    SAN
  4. 46'
    Subst
    Kyle Smith
    FC
  5. 46'
    Subst
    Pedro Soma · assist Aníbal Godoy
    SAN
  6. 46'
    Subst
    Oscar Verhoeven · assist Kieran Sargeant
    SAN
  7. 46'
    Subst
    Tom Barlow · assist Gerardo Valenzuela
    FC
  8. 50'
    Goal · 1-2
    Tom Barlow · assist Evander
    FC
  9. 54'
    Card · Argument
    David Vazquez
    SAN
  10. 66'
    Goal · 2-2
    Amahl Pellegrino · assist Pedro Soma
    SAN
  11. 69'
    Subst
    Alex Mighten · assist David Vazquez
    SAN
  12. 73'
    Subst
    Obinna Nwobodo · assist Nick Hagglund
    FC
  13. 73'
    Subst
    Bryan Ramírez · assist Kenji Mboma Dem
    FC
  14. 78'
    Subst
    Alejandro Alvarado  · assist Amahl Pellegrino
    SAN
  15. 87'
    Card · Argument
    Obinna Nwobodo
    FC
  16. 90'
    Card · Foul
    Tom Barlow
    FC
  17. 90'+1
    Subst
    Ayoub Jabbari · assist Kévin Denkey
    FC
  18. 90'+1
    Subst
    Anisse Saidi · assist Onni Valakari
    SAN
  19. 90'+6
    Goal · 3-2
    Marcus Ingvartsen · assist Anisse Saidi
    SAN
  20. 90'+8
    Goal · 3-3
    Tom Barlow · assist Ayoub Jabbari
    FC
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
SAN DIEGO AVG 7.7
FC CINCINNATI AVG 7.7
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
16.0
TOTAL SHOTS
8.0
5.0
ON TARGET
6.0
7.0
OFF TARGET
1.0
4.0
BLOCKED
1.0
POSSESSION
125.0%
POSSESSION %
87.0%
713.0
PASSES
426.0
646.0%
PASS ACCURACY
357.0%
SET PIECES
7.0
CORNERS
2.0
16.0
OFFSIDES
20.0
DISCIPLINE
8.0
FOULS
9.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
3.0
GK SAVES
2.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
SAN DIEGO 9 shots
M. Ingvartsen
2/4
A. Pellegrino
1/3
A. Dreyer
1/2
FC CINCINNATI 6 shots
Tom Barlow
2/3
Evander
2/2
K. Mboma
1/1
⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 45%
55% A
9
EVENTS LOGGED
11
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-3-3 vs 3-4-1-2
4-3-3
3-4-1-2
18
DURAN FER
97
CHRISTOPH
27
LUCA BOMB
26
MANU DUAH
5
KIERAN SA
20
ANíBAL GO
19
DAVID VAZ
8
ONNI VALA
90
AMAHL PEL
7
MARCUS IN
10
ANDERS DR
18
ROMAN CEL
21
MATT MIAZ
12
JOSé SALA
4
NICK HAGG
20
PAVEL BUC
27
TAH ANUNG
17
KENJI MBO
11
SAMUEL GI
10
EVANDER
22
GERARDO V
9
KéVIN DEN
SUBSTITUTES · SAN DIEGO
77
Alex Mighten
F
70
Alejandro Al...
F
33
Oscar Verhoe...
D
29
Anisse Saidi
F
15
Pedro Soma
M
25
Ian Pilcher
D
9
Lewis Morgan...
F
14
Bryan Zamblé
F
1
CJ dos Santo...
G
COACH: Mikey Varas
SUBSTITUTES · FC CINCINNATI
29
Bryan Ramíre...
D
66
Ender Echeni...
F
55
Ayoub Lajhar
D
24
Kyle Smith
D
3
Gilberto Flo...
D
16
Tom Barlow
F
13
Evan Louro
G
5
Obinna Nwobo...
M
99
Ayoub Jabbar...
F
COACH: Pat Noonan
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
SAN · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

FC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
T. Ford
—
SAN MANAGER
Mikey Varas
head coach
FC MANAGER
Pat Noonan
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
0
SAN WINS
1
DRAWS
0
FC WINS
100%
SAN DIEGO LAST 5 OVERALL
W L W D W
FC CINCINNATI LAST 5 OVERALL
D W D W L
MATCH IMPACT Final 3–3 · result locked
SAN DIEGO #11
Lost · already at 27 pts
FC CINCINNATI #6
Lost · already at 31 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 20 12 4 4 +27 40
W L W D D
1 Nashville SC 21 15 4 2 +26 49
W W W D L
2 Houston Dynamo 21 12 2 7 +4 38
L W W W W
2 Inter Miami 21 11 6 4 +9 39
L D L D W
3 Los Angeles FC 22 10 5 7 +14 35
D L L D W
3 Chicago Fire 20 11 3 6 +11 36
D W W W L
4 New England Revolution 21 10 4 7 +7 34
D W L L D
4 San Jose Earthquakes 21 10 3 8 +6 33
L L L L D
5 FC Dallas 21 9 6 6 +4 33
L W W D L
5 Charlotte 21 9 5 7 +6 32
W D W L W
6 St. Louis City 21 9 6 6 +3 33
W D W D W
6 FC Cincinnati 21 8 7 6 +2 31
D W D W L
7 Colorado Rapids 21 9 1 11 +2 28
L W W W L
7 New York City FC 21 7 6 8 +5 27
D L L D W
8 New York Red Bulls 21 7 5 9 -12 26
D L L W L
8 Real Salt Lake 20 8 4 8 +2 28
L L D D L
9 Portland Timbers 21 8 4 9 +1 28
D W L W W
9 Orlando City SC 21 7 3 11 -17 24
W L D L W
10 Minnesota United FC 21 7 7 7 -2 28
W L D D D
10 Toronto FC 21 5 9 7 -6 24
W D W D L
11 San Diego 21 7 6 8 +5 27
W L W D W
11 DC United 21 5 9 7 -8 24
L L D D W
12 Philadelphia Union 21 5 6 10 -7 21
D D W W W
12 Los Angeles Galaxy 22 6 8 8 -5 26
D W L D D
13 Seattle Sounders 20 7 4 9 -5 25
D L L L L
13 CF Montreal 21 5 6 10 -10 21
D W D D L
14 Austin 21 5 6 10 -14 21
D W L L L
14 Columbus Crew 21 5 5 11 -6 20
L L L D W
15 Sporting Kansas City 20 4 3 13 -30 15
D L L L W
15 Atlanta United FC 20 5 3 12 -12 18
W W L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+8
    Goal · 3-3 · Tom Barlow
    6th Goal
  • 90'+6
    Goal · 3-2 · Marcus Ingvartsen
    5th Goal
  • 90'+1
    Subst · Anisse Saidi
    10th Substitution
  • 90'+1
    Subst · Ayoub Jabbari
    9th Substitution
  • 90'
    Card · Foul · Tom Barlow
    4th Yellowcard
  • 87'
    Card · Argument · Obinna Nwobodo
    3rd Yellowcard
  • 78'
    Subst · Alejandro Alvarado 
    8th Substitution
  • 73'
    Subst · Bryan Ramírez
    7th Substitution
  • 73'
    Subst · Obinna Nwobodo
    6th Substitution
  • 69'
    Subst · Alex Mighten
    5th Substitution
  • 66'
    Goal · 2-2 · Amahl Pellegrino
    4th Goal
  • 54'
    Card · Argument · David Vazquez
    2nd Yellowcard
  • 50'
    Goal · 1-2 · Tom Barlow
    3rd Goal
  • 46'
    Subst · Tom Barlow
    1st Substitution
  • 46'
    Subst · Oscar Verhoeven
    4th Substitution
  • 46'
    Subst · Pedro Soma
    3rd Substitution
  • 46'
    Subst · Kyle Smith
    2nd Substitution
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 1
  • 32'
    Goal · 1-1 · Marcus Ingvartsen
    2nd Goal
  • 24'
    Card · Foul
    1st Yellowcard
  • 11'
    Goal · 0-1 · Kenji Mboma Dem
    1st Goal
30 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 30 BOOKMAKERS
SAN DIEGO WIN
1.91
52.4% implied
↑ best 1.97
DRAW
4.10
24.4% implied
↑ best 4.30
FC CINCINNATI WIN
3.33
30% implied
↑ best 3.61

Market favors San Diego. AI projects SAN DIEGO 48% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS SAN DIEGO 48% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.90 4.30 3.20 +8.7%
10Bet 1.87 4.00 3.55 +7.0%
1xbet 1.92 4.26 3.61 +8.5%
888Sport 1.91 3.80 3.30 +5.7%
Bet365 1.91 4.20 3.40 +8.2%
Betano 1.95 4.05 3.50 +7.3%
Betfair 1.90 4.10 3.40 +7.6%
Betfair 1.90 4.10 3.40 +7.6%
Betsson 1.95 4.15 3.35 +7.9%
BetVictor 1.91 4.20 3.25 +8.2%
BetVictor 1.91 4.20 3.25 +8.2%
bwin 1.90 4.20 3.20 +8.2%
Cashpoint 1.92 4.00 3.40 +7.0%
CloudBet 1.89 4.20 3.55 +8.2%
Coral 1.85 3.90 3.10 +6.4%
Dafabet 1.97 4.20 3.40 +8.2%
Dafabet 1.97 4.20 3.40 +8.2%
Interwetten 1.97 4.00 3.25 +7.0%
Ladbrokes 1.85 3.90 3.10 +6.4%
Macauslot 1.93 3.91 2.85 +6.4%
MansionBet 1.95 4.00 3.15 +7.0%
Marathonbet 1.89 4.05 3.38 +7.3%
Marathonbet 1.89 4.10 3.35 +7.6%
MelBet 1.88 4.16 3.54 +8.0%
Pinnacle 1.92 4.27 3.59 +8.6%
Pinnacle 1.95 4.24 3.50 +8.4%
Sbo 1.93 4.01 3.12 +7.1%
SBO 1.93 4.01 3.12 +7.1%
Unibet 1.88 4.20 3.45 +8.2%
Unibet 1.86 4.25 3.40 +8.5%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.07 U 7.60
2.5 O 1.29 U 3.45
3.5 O 1.76 U 2.03
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.29 15 bks
NO
3.27 15 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.15
Away -0.5 1.89
Away -0.75 1.70
Away -1 1.50
Away -1.25 1.41
Away -1.5 1.34
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.