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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–0 · RAYO VALLECANO 78%
CONF 81 FULL ANALYSIS →
Europa Conference League · SEMI-FINALS · THU, 30 APR · 19:00 LOCAL
RAYO VALLECANO
5TH · 13 PTS · LAST 5:
W W D D W
FT
1 – 0
FULL TIME HT · 0-0
STRASBOURG
W W D L L
· 1ST · 16 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 54' Alexandre Zurawski
GOALS
Mike Penders
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Mike Penders
Strasbourg · 99 mins
· 30% pass acc
RATING
7.5
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

109%
BALL POSSESSION %
89%
24
TOTAL SHOTS
5
8
SHOTS ON TARGET
0
317%
PASS ACCURACY %
262%
5
CORNERS
1
KEY EVENTS 17 events
  1. 11'
    Card · Foul
    Samir El Mourabet
    STR
  2. 38'
    Card · Off the ball foul
    Pathé Ciss
    RAY
  3. 45'+6
    Card · Argument
    Emmanuel Emegha
    STR
  4. 54'
    Goal · 1-0
    Alexandre Zurawski · assist Isi Palazón
    RAY
  5. 64'
    Subst
    Pedro Díaz · assist Alexandre Zurawski
    RAY
  6. 67'
    Subst
    Samuel Amo-Ameyaw · assist Martial Godo
    STR
  7. 74'
    Card · Argument
    Ben Chilwell
    STR
  8. 74'
    Card · Argument
    Ilias Akhomach
    RAY
  9. 76'
    Card · Foul
    Florian Lejeune
    RAY
  10. 78'
    Card · Foul
    Diego Moreira
    STR
  11. 83'
    Card · Argument
    RAY
  12. 84'
    Subst
    Sebastian Nanasi · assist Emmanuel Emegha
    STR
  13. 88'
    Subst
    Sergio Camello · assist Isi Palazón
    RAY
  14. 89'
    Subst
    Alfonso Espino · assist Jorge de Frutos
    RAY
  15. 90'+4
    Subst
    Gerard Gumbau · assist Unai López
    RAY
  16. 90'+5
    Subst
    Maxi Oyedele · assist Samir El Mourabet
    STR
  17. 90'+7
    Card · Foul
    Maxi Oyedele
    STR
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
RAYO VALLECANO AVG 7.2
STRASBOURG AVG 7.0
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
24.0
TOTAL SHOTS
5.0
8.0
ON TARGET
0.0
9.0
OFF TARGET
3.0
7.0
BLOCKED
2.0
POSSESSION
109.0%
POSSESSION %
89.0%
382.0
PASSES
344.0
317.0%
PASS ACCURACY
262.0%
SET PIECES
5.0
CORNERS
1.0
15.0
OFFSIDES
17.0
DISCIPLINE
15.0
FOULS
14.0
4.0
YELLOW CARDS
5.0
0.0
GK SAVES
7.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
RAYO VALLECANO 10 shots
Florian Lejeune
3/6
Alemão
1/2
Isi Palazón
1/2
STRASBOURG 1 shots
Emmanuel Emegha
0/1
⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 53%
47% A
9
EVENTS LOGGED
8
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
13
AUGUSTO B
3
JOSEP CHA
6
PATHé ISM
 7.2
24
FLORIAN L
 7.2
2
A. RAțIU
23
ÓSCAR VAL
17
UNAI LóPE
12
ILIAS AKH
 7.3
7
ISI PALAZ
19
JORGE DE
 7.3
9
ALEMãO
 7.5
39
MIKE PEND
3
BEN CHILW
6
ISMAEL DO
 6.9
2
A. OMOBAM
 6.9
24
LUCAS HøG
42
ABDOUL OU
 6.9
29
SAMIR EL
20
M. GODO
19
J. ENCISO
7
DIEGO MOR
 6.9
10
EMMANUEL
SUBSTITUTES · RAYO VALLECANO
32
Nobel Mendy
D
20
Iván Balliu
D
30
Adrián Molin...
G
1
Dani Cárdena...
G
15
Gerard Gumba...
M
22
Alfonso Espi...
D
10
Sergio Camel...
F
4
Pedro Díaz
M
8
Óscar Trejo
M
COACH: Inigo Perez
SUBSTITUTES · STRASBOURG
17
Mathis Amoug...
M
80
Gessime Yass...
F
83
Rafael Luís
M
37
G. Kodia
F
43
Yoann Becker
D
60
G. Kerckaert
G
1
K. Johnsson
G
8
Maxi Oyedele
M
11
Sebastian Na...
M
27
Samuel Amo-A...
F
38
Jean-Baptist...
F
COACH: Gary O'Neil
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
RAY · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

STR · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
D. Rumsas
—
RAY MANAGER
Inigo Perez
head coach
STR MANAGER
Gary O'Neil
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
1
RAY WINS
1
DRAWS
0
STR WINS
50%
50%
1 – 0
TOTAL GOALS · 2 MEETINGS
0.50
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 1 / 2
07 May 2026
Strasbourg
0 – 1
Rayo Vallecano
W
RAYO VALLECANO LAST 5 OVERALL
W W D D W
STRASBOURG LAST 5 OVERALL
W W D L L
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–0 · result locked
RAYO VALLECANO #5
Won · already at 13 pts
Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
STRASBOURG #1
Lost · already at 16 pts
Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Strasbourg 6 5 1 0 +6 16
W W W W D
2 Raków Częstochowa 6 4 2 0 +7 14
W W W D D
3 AEK Athens FC 6 4 1 1 +7 13
W W W D W
4 Sparta Praha 6 4 1 1 +7 13
W W W D L
5 Rayo Vallecano 6 4 1 1 +6 13
W W L W D
6 Shakhtar Donetsk 6 4 1 1 +5 13
D W W W L
7 FSV Mainz 05 6 4 1 1 +4 13
W D L W W
8 AEK Larnaca 6 3 3 0 +6 12
W D D D W
9 Lausanne 6 3 2 1 +3 11
W D L D W
10 Crystal Palace 6 3 1 2 +5 10
D W L W L
11 Lech Poznan 6 3 1 2 +4 10
W D W L L
12 Samsunspor 6 3 1 2 +4 10
L L D W W
13 Celje 6 3 1 2 +1 10
D L L W W
14 AZ Alkmaar 6 3 1 2 0 10
D W W L W
15 Fiorentina 6 3 0 3 +3 9
L W L L W
16 HNK Rijeka 6 2 3 1 +3 9
D W D D W
17 Jagiellonia 6 2 3 1 +1 9
D L W D D
18 Omonia Nicosia 6 2 2 2 +1 8
L W W D D
19 FC Noah 6 2 2 2 -1 8
L W D L D
20 Drita 6 2 2 2 -4 8
L L W W D
21 KuPS 6 1 4 1 +1 7
D D L W D
22 Shkendija 6 2 1 3 -1 7
L W L D W
23 Zrinjski 6 2 1 3 -2 7
D L W L L
24 Sigma Olomouc 6 2 1 3 -2 7
L L W W D
25 Universitatea Craiova 6 2 1 3 -2 7
L L W W D
26 Lincoln Red Imps FC 6 2 1 3 -8 7
L W L D W
27 Dynamo Kyiv 6 2 0 4 0 6
W L L W L
28 Legia Warszawa 6 2 0 4 0 6
W L L L W
29 Slovan Bratislava 6 2 0 4 -4 6
W L W L L
30 Breidablik 6 1 2 3 -5 5
L W D L D
31 Shamrock Rovers 6 1 1 4 -6 4
W L L D L
32 BK Hacken 6 0 3 3 -3 3
L D L L D
33 Hamrun Spartans 6 1 0 5 -7 3
L L W L L
34 Shelbourne 6 0 2 4 -7 2
D L L L L
35 Aberdeen 6 0 2 4 -11 2
L L D D L
36 Rapid Vienna 6 0 1 5 -11 1
D L L L L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+7
    Card · Foul · Maxi Oyedele
    8th Yellowcard
  • 90'+5
    Subst · Maxi Oyedele
    7th Substitution
  • 90'+4
    Subst · Gerard Gumbau
    6th Substitution
  • 89'
    Subst · Alfonso Espino
    5th Substitution
  • 88'
    Subst · Sergio Camello
    4th Substitution
  • 84'
    Subst · Sebastian Nanasi
    3rd Substitution
  • 83'
    Card · Argument
    9th Yellowcard
  • 78'
    Card · Foul · Diego Moreira
    7th Yellowcard
  • 76'
    Card · Foul · Florian Lejeune
    6th Yellowcard
  • 74'
    Card · Argument · Ilias Akhomach
    4th Yellowcard
  • 74'
    Card · Argument · Ben Chilwell
    5th Yellowcard
  • 67'
    Subst · Samuel Amo-Ameyaw
    2nd Substitution
  • 64'
    Subst · Pedro Díaz
    1st Substitution
  • 54'
    Goal · 1-0 · Alexandre Zurawski
    1st Goal
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 0
  • 45'+6
    Card · Argument · Emmanuel Emegha
    3rd Yellowcard
  • 38'
    Card · Off the ball foul · Pathé Ciss
    2nd Yellowcard
  • 11'
    Card · Foul · Samir El Mourabet
    1st Yellowcard
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
RAYO VALLECANO WIN
2.10
47.6% implied
↑ best 2.20
DRAW
3.33
30% implied
↑ best 3.45
STRASBOURG WIN
3.55
28.2% implied
↑ best 3.90

Market favors Rayo Vallecano. AI projects RAYO VALLECANO 78%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS RAYO VALLECANO 78% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.20 3.30 3.20 +32.5%
1xBet 2.11 3.42 3.76 +30.6%
888Sport 2.05 3.10 3.40 +29.2%
Bet365 2.10 3.40 3.60 +30.4%
Betano 2.15 3.30 3.90 +31.5%
Betfair 2.00 3.30 3.60 +28.0%
BetVictor 2.05 3.40 3.40 +29.2%
Dafabet 2.14 3.45 3.55 +31.3%
Marathonbet 2.12 3.40 3.75 +30.8%
Pinnacle 2.11 3.39 3.76 +30.6%
SBO 2.08 3.25 3.31 +29.9%
Unibet 2.10 3.40 3.45 +30.4%
William Hill 2.05 3.20 3.50 +29.2%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.29 U 3.49
2.5 O 1.94 U 1.86
3.5 O 3.34 U 1.31
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.73 10 bks
NO
2.01 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.05
Away -0.5 1.74
Away -0.75 1.56
Away -1 1.36
Away -1.25 1.29
Away -1.5 1.23
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.