GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 2–1 · QPR 78% · Value: Over 2.5 72%
CONF 72 FULL ANALYSIS →
Championship · REGULAR SEASON - 45 · SAT, 25 APR · 14:00 LOCAL
QPR
15TH · 58 PTS · LAST 5:
L L L D D
FT
2 – 3
FULL TIME HT · 1-1
DERBY
L L W L W
· 8TH · 69 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 13' Harvey Vale ⚽ 55' R. Kone
GOALS
⚽ 25' Oscar Fraulo ⚽ 76' Sondre Langås ⚽ 88' Jaydon Banel
Harvey Vale
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Harvey Vale
QPR · 82 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 🅰 1 assist · 30% pass acc · 3 shots on
RATING
9.2
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

2.16
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.73
55%
BALL POSSESSION %
45%
22
TOTAL SHOTS
9
12
SHOTS ON TARGET
2
80%
PASS ACCURACY %
72%
8
CORNERS
5
KEY EVENTS 19 events
  1. 13'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Harvey Vale · assist Daniel Bennie
    QPR
  2. 25'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Oscar Fraulo · assist Max Johnston
    DER
  3. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Amadou Salif Mbengue · assist Kealey Adamson
    QPR
  4. 54'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Sammie Szmodics
    DER
  5. 55'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    R. Kone · assist Harvey Vale
    QPR
  6. 61'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Dion Sanderson · assist Craig Forsyth
    DER
  7. 62'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Max Johnston · assist Jaydon Banel
    DER
  8. 62'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Daniel Bennie · assist R. Burrell
    QPR
  9. 62'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Kieran Morgan · assist Nicolas Madsen
    QPR
  10. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Oscar Fraulo · assist David Ozoh
    DER
  11. 63'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Sondre Langås
    DER
  12. 68'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    R. Kone · assist Ilias Chair
    QPR
  13. 70'
    Card · Yellow Card
    R. Burrell
    QPR
  14. 75'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Lewis Travis · assist Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
    DER
  15. 76'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Sondre Langås · assist Joe Ward
    DER
  16. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Paul Smyth · assist Koki Saito
    QPR
  17. 81'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Ben Brereton Díaz
    DER
  18. 88'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Jaydon Banel · assist Matt Clarke
    DER
  19. 90'+1
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Sammie Szmodics · assist Danny Batth
    DER
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
QPR AVG 7.7
DERBY AVG 7.7
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
2.2
xG
0.7
22.0
TOTAL SHOTS
9.0
12.0
ON TARGET
2.0
3.0
OFF TARGET
4.0
7.0
BLOCKED
3.0
POSSESSION
55.0%
POSSESSION %
45.0%
307.0
PASSES
257.0
80.0%
PASS ACCURACY
72.0%
SET PIECES
8.0
CORNERS
5.0
2.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
9.0
FOULS
7.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
0.0
GK SAVES
10.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
QPR 13 shots
Paul Smyth
5/5
Harvey Vale
3/4
R. Kone
3/3
Jonathan Varane
1/1
DERBY 3 shots
Sondre Langås
1/2
Oscar Fraulo
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 2.16 – 0.73
1.7 1.3 0.9 0.4 2.2 0.0 HT 13' 55' 25' 76' 88' H 2.16 A 0.73 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 42%
58% A
8
EVENTS LOGGED
11
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-4-2 vs 4-2-3-1
4-4-2
4-2-3-1
1
P. NARDI
18
RHYS NORR
6
JAKE CLAR
37
RONNIE ED
27
AMADOU SA
 7.2
11
PAUL SMYT
 7.3
40
JONATHAN
21
KIERAN MO
 9.2
20
HARVEY VA
 7.9
23
DANIEL BE
 6.9
22
R. KONE
 8.3
1
JACOB WID
22
MAX JOHNS
 7.3
5
MATT CLAR
28
DION SAND
 8.0
6
SONDRE LA
 7.7
29
OSCAR FRA
27
LEWIS TRA
25
BEN BRERE
19
SAMMIE SZ
 7.0
23
JOE WARD
9
CARLTON M
SUBSTITUTES · QPR
26
Rayan Jawad...
F
14
Koki Saito
F
10
Ilias Chair
M
48
Isak Alemaye...
M
24
Nicolas Mads...
M
28
Esquerdinha
D
2
Kealey Adams...
D
29
B. Hamer
G
16
R. Burrell
F
COACH: Julien Stephan
SUBSTITUTES · DERBY
34
Jaydon Banel
M
54
Cruz Allen
M
18
David Ozoh
M
37
Owen Eames
M
44
I. Gordon
D
4
Danny Batth
D
3
Craig Forsyt...
D
31
Josh Vickers
G
15
Lars-Jørgen...
F
COACH: John Eustace
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
QPR · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

DER · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
John Busby, England
—
QPR MANAGER
Julien Stephan
head coach
DER MANAGER
John Eustace
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
5
QPR WINS
1
DRAWS
4
DER WINS
50%
10%
40%
13 – 10
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.30
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
25 Oct 2025
Derby
1 – 0
QPR
L
14 Feb 2025
QPR
4 – 0
Derby
W
05 Oct 2024
Derby
2 – 0
QPR
L
18 Apr 2022
QPR
1 – 0
Derby
W
29 Nov 2021
Derby
1 – 2
QPR
W
QPR LAST 5 OVERALL
L L L D D
DERBY LAST 5 OVERALL
L L W L W
MATCH IMPACT Final 2–3 · result locked
QPR #15
Lost · already at 58 pts
DERBY #8
Won · already at 69 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Coventry 46 28 11 7 +52 95
W W W D D
2 Ipswich 46 23 15 8 +33 84
W D D W D
3 Millwall 46 24 11 11 +15 83
L D W D W
4 Southampton 46 22 14 10 +26 80
W D W D D
5 Middlesbrough 46 22 14 10 +25 80
L L D D W
6 Hull City 46 21 10 15 +4 73
W W D W L
7 Wrexham 46 19 14 13 +4 71
D L W W L
8 Derby 46 20 9 17 +8 69
L W L W L
9 Norwich 46 19 8 19 +7 65
L D W W L
10 Birmingham 46 17 13 16 +1 64
D W W D W
11 Swansea 46 18 10 18 -2 64
W D W L W
12 Bristol City 46 17 11 18 0 62
W L D L D
13 Sheffield Utd 46 18 6 22 0 60
W L L W W
14 Preston 46 15 15 16 -7 60
L W L L W
15 QPR 46 16 10 20 -12 58
L L L L D
16 Watford 46 14 15 17 -12 57
L L L L L
17 Stoke City 46 15 10 21 -5 55
L L L L D
18 Portsmouth 46 14 13 19 -15 55
D W L W W
19 Charlton 46 13 14 19 -14 53
L W L D L
20 Blackburn 46 13 13 20 -14 52
L W D L D
21 West Brom 46 13 14 19 -10 51
L D W W D
22 Oxford United 46 11 14 21 -14 47
L W L L W
23 Leicester 46 12 16 18 -10 46
W D D L L
24 Sheffield Wednesday 46 2 12 32 -60 0
W L L D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+1
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Sammie Szmodics
  • 88'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Jaydon Banel
  • 81'
    Card · Yellow Card · Ben Brereton Díaz
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Paul Smyth
  • 76'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Sondre Langås
  • 75'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Lewis Travis
  • 70'
    Card · Yellow Card · R. Burrell
  • 68'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · R. Kone
  • 63'
    Card · Yellow Card · Sondre Langås
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Oscar Fraulo
  • 62'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Kieran Morgan
  • 62'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Daniel Bennie
  • 62'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Max Johnston
  • 61'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Dion Sanderson
  • 55'
    Goal · Normal Goal · R. Kone
  • 54'
    Card · Yellow Card · Sammie Szmodics
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Amadou Salif Mbengue
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 1
  • 25'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Oscar Fraulo
  • 13'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Harvey Vale
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
QPR WIN
2.97
33.7% implied
↑ best 3.11
DRAW
3.39
29.5% implied
↑ best 3.65
DERBY WIN
2.29
43.7% implied
↑ best 2.35

Market favors Derby. AI projects QPR 78% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS QPR 78% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 3.05 3.40 2.25 +45.2%
1xBet 2.99 3.38 2.29 +44.6%
888Sport 2.90 3.30 2.30 +43.5%
Bet365 2.80 3.25 2.20 +42.3%
Betano 3.05 3.45 2.30 +45.2%
Betfair 3.00 3.40 2.30 +44.7%
BetVictor 3.00 3.40 2.30 +44.7%
Dafabet 3.00 3.65 2.31 +44.7%
Marathonbet 2.98 3.38 2.27 +44.4%
Pinnacle 3.11 3.51 2.34 +45.8%
SBO 2.94 3.23 2.28 +44.0%
Unibet 2.95 3.40 2.35 +44.1%
William Hill 2.90 3.30 2.30 +43.5%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.29 U 3.36
2.5 O 1.95 U 1.84
3.5 O 3.32 U 1.30
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.72 10 bks
NO
2.03 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.48
Away -0.5 1.40
Away -0.75 1.25
Away -1 1.13
Away -1.25 1.09
Away -1.5 1.09
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.