GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 2–1 · QPR 78% · Value: Over 2.5 72%
CONF 72 FULL ANALYSIS →
Championship · REGULAR SEASON - 45 · SAT 25 APR · 14:00 LOCAL
QPR
14TH · 58 PTS · LAST 5:
L L D D W
FT
2 – 3
FULL TIME HT · 1-1
DERBY
L W L W L
· 8TH · 69 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 13' Harvey Vale ⚽ 55' Richard Kone
GOALS
⚽ 25' Oscar Fraulo ⚽ 76' Sondre Langås ⚽ 88' Jaydon Banel
Harvey Vale
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Harvey Vale
QPR · 82 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 🅰 1 assist · 30% pass acc · 3 shots on
RATING
9.2
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap

awaiting upload
Goals, key moments, post-match interviews
Highlightly publishes 30 min – 6 h after final whistle
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

2.16
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.73
55%
BALL POSSESSION %
45%
22
TOTAL SHOTS
9
12
SHOTS ON TARGET
2
80%
PASS ACCURACY %
72%
8
CORNERS
5
KEY EVENTS 19 events
  1. 13'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Harvey Vale · assist Daniel Bennie
    QPR
  2. 25'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Oscar Fraulo · assist Max Johnston
    DER
  3. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Amadou Salif Mbengue · assist Kealey Adamson
    QPR
  4. 54'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Sammie Szmodics
    DER
  5. 55'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Richard Kone · assist Harvey Vale
    QPR
  6. 61'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Dion Sanderson · assist Craig Forsyth
    DER
  7. 62'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Max Johnston · assist Jaydon Banel
    DER
  8. 62'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Daniel Bennie · assist Rumarn Burrell
    QPR
  9. 62'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Kieran Morgan · assist Nicolas Madsen
    QPR
  10. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Oscar Fraulo · assist David Ozoh
    DER
  11. 63'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Sondre Langås
    DER
  12. 68'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Richard Kone · assist Ilias Chair
    QPR
  13. 70'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Rumarn Burrell
    QPR
  14. 75'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Lewis Travis · assist Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
    DER
  15. 76'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Sondre Langås · assist Joe Ward
    DER
  16. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Paul Smyth · assist Koki Saito
    QPR
  17. 81'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Ben Brereton Díaz
    DER
  18. 88'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Jaydon Banel · assist Matt Clarke
    DER
  19. 90'+1
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Sammie Szmodics · assist Danny Batth
    DER
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
QPR AVG 7.7
DERBY AVG 7.7
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
2.2
xG
0.7
22.0
TOTAL SHOTS
9.0
12.0
ON TARGET
2.0
3.0
OFF TARGET
4.0
7.0
BLOCKED
3.0
POSSESSION
55.0%
POSSESSION %
45.0%
307.0
PASSES
257.0
80.0%
PASS ACCURACY
72.0%
SET PIECES
8.0
CORNERS
5.0
2.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
9.0
FOULS
7.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
0.0
GK SAVES
10.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
QPR 11 shots
Paul Smyth
5/5
Harvey Vale
3/4
Jonathan Varane
1/1
Kieran Morgan
0/1
DERBY 3 shots
Sondre Langås
1/2
Oscar Fraulo
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 2.16 – 0.73
1.7 1.3 0.9 0.4 2.2 0.0 HT 13' 55' 25' 76' 88' H 2.16 A 0.73 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 42%
58% A
8
EVENTS LOGGED
11
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-4-2 vs 4-2-3-1
4-4-2
4-2-3-1
1
PAUL NARD
18
RHYS NORR
6
JAKE CLAR
37
RONNIE ED
27
AMADOU SA
 7.2
11
PAUL SMYT
 7.3
40
JONATHAN
 6.9
21
KIERAN MO
 9.2
20
HARVEY VA
 7.9
23
DANIEL BE
22
RICHARD K
 8.3
1
JACOB WID
22
MAX JOHNS
 7.3
5
MATT CLAR
28
DION SAND
 8.0
6
SONDRE LA
 7.7
29
OSCAR FRA
27
LEWIS TRA
25
BEN BRERE
19
SAMMIE SZ
 7.0
23
JOE WARD
9
CARLTON M
SUBSTITUTES · QPR
26
Rayan Kolli
F
14
Koki Saito
F
10
Ilias Chair
M
48
Isak Alemaye...
M
24
Nicolas Mads...
M
28
Esquerdinha
D
2
Kealey Adams...
D
29
Ben Hamer
G
16
Rumarn Burre...
F
COACH: Julien Stephan
SUBSTITUTES · DERBY
34
Jaydon Banel
M
54
Cruz Allen
M
18
David Ozoh
M
37
Owen Eames
M
44
Isaac Gordon
D
4
Danny Batth
D
3
Craig Forsyt...
D
31
Josh Vickers
G
15
Lars-Jørgen...
F
COACH: John Eustace
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
QPR · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

DER · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
John Busby, England
—
QPR MANAGER
Julien Stephan
head coach
DER MANAGER
John Eustace
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
5
QPR WINS
1
DRAWS
4
DER WINS
50%
10%
40%
13 – 10
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.30
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
25 Oct 25
Derby
1 – 0
QPR
L
14 Feb 25
QPR
4 – 0
Derby
W
05 Oct 24
Derby
2 – 0
QPR
L
18 Apr 22
QPR
1 – 0
Derby
W
29 Nov 21
Derby
1 – 2
QPR
W
QPR LAST 5 OVERALL
L L D D W
DERBY LAST 5 OVERALL
L W L W L
MATCH IMPACT Final 2–3 · result locked
QPR #14
Lost · already at 58 pts
DERBY #8
Won · already at 69 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Coventry 45 27 11 7 +48 92
W W D D D
2 Ipswich 44 22 14 8 +30 80
D W D L W
3 Millwall 45 23 11 11 +13 80
D W W D L
4 Middlesbrough 45 22 13 10 +25 79
W W D L D
5 Southampton 44 21 13 10 +24 76
D W W W W
6 Wrexham 45 19 13 13 +4 70
L W W L L
7 Hull City 45 20 10 15 +3 70
L D D L D
8 Derby 45 20 9 16 +9 69
W L W L W
9 Norwich 45 19 8 18 +8 65
D W W L W
10 Birmingham 45 17 12 16 +1 63
W W D W L
11 Swansea 45 17 10 18 -4 61
D W L W D
12 Preston 45 15 15 15 -5 60
W L L W D
13 Bristol City 45 16 11 18 -2 59
L D L D W
14 QPR 45 16 10 19 -9 58
L L L D D
15 Sheffield Utd 45 17 6 22 -1 57
L L W W L
16 Watford 45 14 15 16 -8 57
L L L L D
17 Stoke City 45 15 10 20 -3 55
L L L D L
18 Portsmouth 45 14 12 19 -15 54
W L W W W
19 Charlton 45 13 14 18 -12 53
W L D L D
20 Blackburn 45 13 13 19 -13 52
W D L D D
21 West Brom 45 13 14 18 -9 51
D W W D D
22 Oxford United 45 11 14 20 -12 47
W L L W D
23 Leicester 45 11 16 18 -11 43
D D L L D
24 Sheffield Wednesday 45 1 12 32 -61 -3
L L D D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+1
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Sammie Szmodics
  • 88'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Jaydon Banel
  • 81'
    Card · Yellow Card · Ben Brereton Díaz
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Paul Smyth
  • 76'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Sondre Langås
  • 75'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Lewis Travis
  • 70'
    Card · Yellow Card · Rumarn Burrell
  • 68'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Richard Kone
  • 63'
    Card · Yellow Card · Sondre Langås
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Oscar Fraulo
  • 62'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Kieran Morgan
  • 62'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Daniel Bennie
  • 62'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Max Johnston
  • 61'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Dion Sanderson
  • 55'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Richard Kone
  • 54'
    Card · Yellow Card · Sammie Szmodics
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Amadou Salif Mbengue
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 1
  • 25'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Oscar Fraulo
  • 13'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Harvey Vale
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
QPR WIN
2.97
33.7% implied
↑ best 3.11
DRAW
3.39
29.5% implied
↑ best 3.65
DERBY WIN
2.29
43.7% implied
↑ best 2.35

Market favors Derby. AI projects QPR 78% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS QPR 78% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 3.05 3.40 2.25 +45.2%
1xBet 2.99 3.38 2.29 +44.6%
888Sport 2.90 3.30 2.30 +43.5%
Bet365 2.80 3.25 2.20 +42.3%
Betano 3.05 3.45 2.30 +45.2%
Betfair 3.00 3.40 2.30 +44.7%
BetVictor 3.00 3.40 2.30 +44.7%
Dafabet 3.00 3.65 2.31 +44.7%
Marathonbet 2.98 3.38 2.27 +44.4%
Pinnacle 3.11 3.51 2.34 +45.8%
SBO 2.94 3.23 2.28 +44.0%
Unibet 2.95 3.40 2.35 +44.1%
William Hill 2.90 3.30 2.30 +43.5%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.29 U 3.36
2.5 O 1.95 U 1.84
3.5 O 3.32 U 1.30
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.72 10 bks
NO
2.03 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.48
Away -0.5 1.40
Away -0.75 1.25
Away -1 1.13
Away -1.25 1.09
Away -1.5 1.09
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.