GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 3–1 · PHILADELPHIA UNION 97% · Value: Over 2.5 92%
CONF 88 FULL ANALYSIS →
Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 16 · WED, 22 JUL · 23:30 LOCAL
PHILADELPHIA UNION
12TH · 21 PTS · LAST 5:
D D W W W
FT
3 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 1-1
NEW YORK RED BULLS
D L L W L
· 8TH · 26 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 9' M. Iloski ⚽ 57' I. Vassilev ⚽ 66' Neil Pierre
GOALS
⚽ 38' C. Cowell
B. Damiani
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
B. Damiani
Philadelphia Union · 91 mins
· 15% pass acc · 2 shots on
RATING
8.2
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

3.08
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.54
37%
BALL POSSESSION %
63%
23
TOTAL SHOTS
10
9
SHOTS ON TARGET
5
69%
PASS ACCURACY %
83%
8
CORNERS
6
KEY EVENTS 15 events
  1. 9'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    M. Iloski
    PHI
  2. 38'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    C. Cowell · assist E. Forsberg
    NEW
  3. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    M. Dos Santos · assist O. Valencia
    NEW
  4. 56'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    J. Sery Larsen · assist Neil Pierre
    PHI
  5. 57'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    I. Vassilev · assist F. Westfield
    PHI
  6. 66'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Neil Pierre · assist K. Wagner
    PHI
  7. 73'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    I. Vassilev · assist Q. Sullivan
    PHI
  8. 74'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty · assist Julián Bazán
    NEW
  9. 75'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    E. Forsberg · assist Gustav Berggren
    NEW
  10. 75'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    C. Cowell · assist M. Sofo
    NEW
  11. 77'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Ronald Donkor
    NEW
  12. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    M. Iloski · assist E. Alladoh
    PHI
  13. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Cavan Sullivan · assist J. Bueno
    PHI
  14. 85'
    Card · Yellow Card
    O. Valencia
    NEW
  15. 88'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Gustav Berggren
    NEW
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
PHILADELPHIA UNION AVG 7.8
NEW YORK RED BULLS AVG 7.1
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
3.1
xG
0.5
23.0
TOTAL SHOTS
10.0
9.0
ON TARGET
5.0
10.0
OFF TARGET
3.0
4.0
BLOCKED
2.0
POSSESSION
37.0%
POSSESSION %
63.0%
277.0
PASSES
494.0
69.0%
PASS ACCURACY
83.0%
SET PIECES
8.0
CORNERS
6.0
1.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
13.0
FOULS
10.0
0.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
4.0
GK SAVES
6.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
PHILADELPHIA UNION 13 shots
M. Iloski
3/4
Neil Pierre
1/3
B. Damiani
2/2
Cavan Sullivan
2/2
I. Vassilev
1/2
NEW YORK RED BULLS 2 shots
C. Cowell
1/1
J. Hall
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 3.08 – 0.54
2.5 1.8 1.2 0.6 3.1 0.0 HT 9' 57' 66' 38' H 3.08 A 0.54 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 47%
53% A
7
EVENTS LOGGED
8
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-4-2 vs 4-3-3
4-4-2
4-3-3
18
A. BLAKE
27
K. WAGNER
5
J. SERY L
26
N. HARRIE
39
F. WESTFI
 7.3
19
I. VASSIL
4
J. LUKIć
21
D. JEAN-J
 7.9
6
CAVAN SU
 8.0
10
M. ILOSKI
 8.2
9
B. DAMIAN
 8.0
34
ETHAN HOR
56
M. DOS SA
12
D. NEALIS
 6.6
2
JUSTIN CH
3
JAHKEELE
10
E. FORSBE
15
ADRI MEHM
 6.7
48
RONALD DO
11
J. RUVALC
 6.9
16
J. HALL
 7.2
7
C. COWELL
SUBSTITUTES · PHILADELPHIA UNION
8
J. Bueno
M
33
Q. Sullivan
M
11
A. Bedoya
M
28
A. Anello
F
16
B. Bender
M
44
Neil Pierre
D
2
Geiner Martí...
D
76
A. Rick
G
23
E. Alladoh
F
COACH: Bradley Carnell
SUBSTITUTES · NEW YORK RED BULLS
91
M. Jimenez
F
37
M. Sofo
F
80
Nathan Worth
M
4
Gustav Bergg...
M
14
Julián Bazán
D
26
Tim Parker
D
5
O. Valencia
D
77
John McCarth...
G
70
Andy Rojas
F
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
PHI · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

NEW · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
F. Bazakos
—
PHI MANAGER
Bradley Carnell
head coach
NEW MANAGER
—
unannounced
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
6
PHI WINS
3
DRAWS
1
NEW WINS
60%
30%
10%
16 – 6
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.20
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
16 Aug 2025
New York Red Bulls
1 – 0
Philadelphia Union
L
12 Jul 2025
Philadelphia Union
2 – 0
New York Red Bulls
W
31 Aug 2024
New York Red Bulls
0 – 2
Philadelphia Union
W
06 Jul 2024
Philadelphia Union
0 – 0
New York Red Bulls
D
03 Sep 2023
Philadelphia Union
4 – 1
New York Red Bulls
W
PHILADELPHIA UNION LAST 5 OVERALL
D D W W W
NEW YORK RED BULLS LAST 5 OVERALL
D L L W L
MATCH IMPACT Final 3–1 · result locked
PHILADELPHIA UNION #12
Won · already at 21 pts
NEW YORK RED BULLS #8
Lost · already at 26 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 20 12 4 4 +27 40
W L W D D
1 Nashville SC 21 15 4 2 +26 49
W W W D L
2 Houston Dynamo 21 12 2 7 +4 38
L W W W W
2 Inter Miami 21 11 6 4 +9 39
L D L D W
3 Los Angeles FC 22 10 5 7 +14 35
D L L D W
3 Chicago Fire 20 11 3 6 +11 36
D W W W L
4 New England Revolution 21 10 4 7 +7 34
D W L L D
4 San Jose Earthquakes 21 10 3 8 +6 33
L L L L D
5 FC Dallas 21 9 6 6 +4 33
L W W D L
5 Charlotte 21 9 5 7 +6 32
W D W L W
6 St. Louis City 21 9 6 6 +3 33
W D W D W
6 FC Cincinnati 21 8 7 6 +2 31
D W D W L
7 Colorado Rapids 21 9 1 11 +2 28
L W W W L
7 New York City FC 21 7 6 8 +5 27
D L L D W
8 New York Red Bulls 21 7 5 9 -12 26
D L L W L
8 Real Salt Lake 20 8 4 8 +2 28
L L D D L
9 Portland Timbers 21 8 4 9 +1 28
D W L W W
9 Orlando City SC 21 7 3 11 -17 24
W L D L W
10 Minnesota United FC 21 7 7 7 -2 28
W L D D D
10 Toronto FC 21 5 9 7 -6 24
W D W D L
11 San Diego 21 7 6 8 +5 27
W L W D W
11 DC United 21 5 9 7 -8 24
L L D D W
12 Philadelphia Union 21 5 6 10 -7 21
D D W W W
12 Los Angeles Galaxy 22 6 8 8 -5 26
D W L D D
13 Seattle Sounders 20 7 4 9 -5 25
D L L L L
13 CF Montreal 21 5 6 10 -10 21
D W D D L
14 Austin 21 5 6 10 -14 21
D W L L L
14 Columbus Crew 21 5 5 11 -6 20
L L L D W
15 Sporting Kansas City 20 4 3 13 -30 15
D L L L W
15 Atlanta United FC 20 5 3 12 -12 18
W W L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 88'
    Card · Yellow Card · Gustav Berggren
  • 85'
    Card · Yellow Card · O. Valencia
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Cavan Sullivan
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · M. Iloski
  • 77'
    Card · Yellow Card · Ronald Donkor
  • 75'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · C. Cowell
  • 75'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · E. Forsberg
  • 74'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty
  • 73'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · I. Vassilev
  • 66'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Neil Pierre
  • 57'
    Goal · Normal Goal · I. Vassilev
  • 56'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · J. Sery Larsen
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · M. Dos Santos
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 1
  • 38'
    Goal · Normal Goal · C. Cowell
  • 9'
    Goal · Normal Goal · M. Iloski
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
PHILADELPHIA UNI WIN
1.73
57.8% implied
↑ best 1.78
DRAW
4.16
24% implied
↑ best 4.33
NEW YORK RED BUL WIN
4.15
24.1% implied
↑ best 4.30

Market favors Philadelphia Union. AI projects PHILADELPHIA UNION 97% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS PHILADELPHIA UNION 97% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.73 4.10 4.00 +39.2%
Bet365 1.73 4.20 4.20 +39.2%
Betano 1.78 4.30 3.90 +40.8%
Betfair 1.73 4.20 4.20 +39.2%
BetVictor 1.70 4.10 4.20 +38.2%
Dafabet 1.76 4.30 4.20 +40.2%
Marathonbet 1.67 4.15 4.30 +37.1%
Pinnacle 1.75 4.33 4.27 +39.9%
SBO 1.68 4.00 4.16 +37.5%
Superbet 1.76 4.15 4.15 +40.2%
Unibet 1.70 4.20 4.20 +38.2%
William Hill 1.73 3.90 4.00 +39.2%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.13 U 5.71
2.5 O 1.46 U 2.66
3.5 O 2.16 U 1.68
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.47 9 bks
NO
2.53 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.47
Away -0.5 2.11
Away -0.75 1.90
Away -1 1.67
Away -1.25 1.51
Away -1.5 1.41
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.