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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · NACIONAL 38%
CONF 48 FULL ANALYSIS →
Primeira Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 2 · SUN, 16 AUG · 14:30 LOCAL
NACIONAL
14TH · 34 PTS · LAST 5:
D W L L W
63'
0 – 0
HT · 0-0
ESTORIL
D L D D L
· 10TH · 39 PTS · LAST 5
PREDICTIONS
⚡ LIVE TRACKER

Last action · Nacional · 51'

LIVE
ESTORIL NACIONAL

Last event marker · ball-position telemetry not available for this league

📈 MOMENTUM · ATTACK WAVE

Last 30 minutes · who has the upper hand

NACIONAL ESTORIL
NACIONAL ESTORIL 33' 48' 63'
Event density · 3-min buckets
📊 LIVE STATS

Updates every refresh · Minute 63'

0.59
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.69
60%
BALL POSSESSION %
40%
9
TOTAL SHOTS
7
0
SHOTS ON TARGET
5
88%
PASS ACCURACY %
83%
3
CORNERS
3
KEY EVENTS 4 events
  1. 11'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Xeka
    EST
  2. 32'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Xeka
    EST
  3. 32'
    Card · Red Card
    Xeka
    EST
  4. 51'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Matheus Dias
    NAC
LIVE STATS H vs A
ATTACK
0.6
xG
0.7
9.0
TOTAL SHOTS
7.0
0.0
ON TARGET
5.0
5.0
OFF TARGET
1.0
4.0
BLOCKED
1.0
POSSESSION
60.0%
POSSESSION %
40.0%
320.0
PASSES
221.0
88.0%
PASS ACCURACY
83.0%
SET PIECES
3.0
CORNERS
3.0
DISCIPLINE
9.0
FOULS
11.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
2.0
0.0
RED CARDS
1.0
5.0
GK SAVES
0.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
NACIONAL 1 shots
Ze Vitor
0/1
ESTORIL 1 shots
João Carvalho
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 0.59 – 0.69
0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.0 HT H 0.59 A 0.69 KO 30' 60' 63'

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 25%
75% A
1
EVENTS LOGGED
3
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-4-2-1 vs 4-2-3-1
3-4-2-1
4-2-3-1
7.0
1
RENATO MA
 7.2
38
ZE VITOR
6
MATHEUS D
34
LéO SANTO
 6.9
7
MARKUS JE
 6.9
22
FILIPE SO
28
LIZIERO
52
WESLEY GA
 7.0
10
DANIEL Jú
8
MIGUEL BA
99
PABLO MES
 6.7
1
JOEL ROBL
 6.9
3
FERNANDO
 6.7
15
ISMAEL SI
4
FERRO
 6.7
2
RICARD Sá
5
ANTEF TSO
8
XEKA
7
ANDRé LAC
 7.2
12
JOãO CARV
99
RAFIK GUI
14
YANIS BEG
SUBSTITUTES · NACIONAL
15
Chiheb Labid...
M
2
Daniel De la...
D
23
Mateus Jose...
M
88
Deivison Sou...
M
11
Stavros Gavr...
M
26
Joel Silva
M
33
Francisco Go...
D
14
Ivanildo Fer...
D
50
Kevyn
G
13
João Gonçalv...
G
30
Martim Gusta...
M
COACH: Giao Joao
SUBSTITUTES · ESTORIL
18
Gonçalo Cost...
D
90
Tiago Brito
M
80
Luis Gomes
M
6
Jandro Orell...
M
25
Stelios Andr...
D
19
Tiago Parent...
D
22
Pedro Carval...
D
42
Jordan Arnol...
D
16
Martin Turk
G
23
Diogo Dias
G
98
Fabrício Gar...
F
COACH: Vasco Matos
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
NAC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

EST · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa, Portugal
—
NAC MANAGER
Giao Joao
head coach
EST MANAGER
Vasco Matos
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
3
NAC WINS
2
DRAWS
4
EST WINS
33.3%
22.2%
44.4%
11 – 10
TOTAL GOALS · 9 MEETINGS
2.33
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
15 Mar 2026
Nacional
0 – 1
Estoril
L
26 Oct 2025
Estoril
1 – 1
Nacional
D
15 Feb 2025
Nacional
2 – 2
Estoril
D
15 Sep 2024
Estoril
1 – 0
Nacional
L
14 Dec 2019
Estoril
1 – 2
Nacional
W
NACIONAL LAST 5 OVERALL
D W L L W
ESTORIL LAST 5 OVERALL
D L D D L
LIVE IMPACT Currently 0–0 · scenario projection
NACIONAL #14
If loss holds: 34 pts
ESTORIL #10
If loss holds: 39 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 FC Porto 34 28 4 2 +48 88
W L W W W
2 Sporting CP 34 25 7 2 +65 82
W W W D D
3 Benfica 34 23 11 0 +49 80
W D D W W
4 SC Braga 34 16 11 7 +28 59
D D D L W
5 Famalicao 34 15 11 8 +13 56
W D D W D
6 GIL Vicente 34 13 11 10 +9 50
L L D W L
7 Moreirense 34 12 7 15 -12 43
D L W L W
8 Arouca 34 12 6 16 -17 42
W W D L W
9 Guimaraes 34 12 6 16 -12 42
L L L W W
10 Estoril 34 10 9 15 -3 39
L D D L L
11 Alverca 34 10 9 15 -17 39
L D L W L
12 Rio Ave 34 8 12 14 -22 36
D L D L D
13 Santa Clara 34 9 9 16 -9 36
L W D W D
14 Nacional 34 9 7 18 -8 34
W L L W W
15 Estrela 34 6 12 16 -18 30
D D L L L
16 Casa Pia 34 6 12 16 -26 30
D W L L L
17 Tondela 34 6 10 18 -28 28
L W W D L
18 AVS 34 3 12 19 -40 21
D W W D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
LIVE COMMENTARY LIVE
  • 51'
    Card · Yellow Card · Matheus Dias
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 0
  • 32'
    Card · Red Card · Xeka
  • 32'
    Card · Yellow Card · Xeka
  • 11'
    Card · Yellow Card · Xeka
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
NACIONAL WIN
2.75
36.4% implied
↑ best 2.92
DRAW
3.25
30.8% implied
↑ best 3.40
ESTORIL WIN
2.51
39.8% implied
↑ best 2.60

Market favors Estoril. AI projects NACIONAL 38%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS NACIONAL 38% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.60 3.30 2.60 +1.7%
1xBet 2.89 3.32 2.60 +3.4%
888Sport 2.75 3.10 2.50 +1.6%
Bet365 2.88 3.30 2.45 +3.3%
Betano 2.87 3.25 2.52 +3.2%
Betfair 2.70 3.40 2.45 +2.6%
BetVictor 2.70 3.25 2.38 +1.2%
Dafabet 2.85 3.35 2.55 +2.9%
Marathonbet 2.78 3.20 2.50 +2.0%
Pinnacle 2.92 3.30 2.58 +3.8%
SBO 2.51 3.08 2.46 -0.5%
Unibet 2.60 3.30 2.60 +1.7%
William Hill 2.75 3.10 2.50 +1.6%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.27 U 3.53
2.5 O 1.89 U 1.88
3.5 O 3.18 U 1.32
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.67 10 bks
NO
2.09 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.58
Away -0.5 1.44
Away -0.75 1.29
Away -1 1.15
Away -1.25 1.11
Away -1.5 1.11
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.