GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–2 · AJAX 44%
CONF 18 FULL ANALYSIS →
Eredivisie · REGULAR SEASON - 31 · SAT 25 APR · 18:00 LOCAL
NAC BREDA
17TH · 25 PTS · LAST 5:
D D L L D
FT
0 – 2
FULL TIME HT · 0-2
AJAX
W L D W L
· 4TH · 54 PTS · LAST 5
GOALS
⚽ 20' Oscar Gloukh ⚽ 41' Mika Godts
Mika Godts
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Mika Godts
Ajax · 82 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 🅰 1 assist · 26% pass acc · 2 shots on
RATING
9.5
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 1 CLIP

powered by Highlightly
Eredivisie: NAC Breda vs Ajax
Open in Youtube ↗
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.82
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.90
58%
BALL POSSESSION %
42%
21
TOTAL SHOTS
8
3
SHOTS ON TARGET
6
87%
PASS ACCURACY %
82%
11
CORNERS
2
KEY EVENTS 13 events
  1. 20'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Oscar Gloukh · assist Mika Godts
    AJA
  2. 41'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Mika Godts · assist Wout Weghorst
    AJA
  3. 56'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Raul Paula · assist Pepijn Reulen
    NAC
  4. 56'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Charles-Andreas Brym · assist Brahim Ghalidi
    NAC
  5. 56'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Moussa Soumano · assist André Ayew
    NAC
  6. 56'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Oscar Gloukh · assist Sean Steur
    AJA
  7. 71'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Maximilien Balard · assist Lewis Holtby
    NAC
  8. 72'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Steven Berghuis · assist Ko Itakura
    AJA
  9. 72'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Youri Regeer · assist Rayane Bounida
    AJA
  10. 78'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Ko Itakura
    AJA
  11. 82'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Clint Leemans · assist Juho Talvitie
    NAC
  12. 82'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Mika Godts · assist Oliver Edvardsen
    AJA
  13. 85'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Wout Weghorst
    AJA
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
NAC BREDA AVG 7.3
AJAX AVG 8.1
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.8
xG
1.9
21.0
TOTAL SHOTS
8.0
3.0
ON TARGET
6.0
10.0
OFF TARGET
1.0
8.0
BLOCKED
1.0
POSSESSION
58.0%
POSSESSION %
42.0%
506.0
PASSES
390.0
87.0%
PASS ACCURACY
82.0%
SET PIECES
11.0
CORNERS
2.0
1.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
6.0
FOULS
11.0
0.0
YELLOW CARDS
2.0
4.0
GK SAVES
3.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
NAC BREDA 1 shots
Mohamed Nassoh
1/1
AJAX 4 shots
Mika Godts
2/2
Lucas Rosa
1/1
Oscar Gloukh
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.82 – 1.90
1.5 1.1 0.8 0.4 1.9 0.0 HT 20' 41' H 1.82 A 1.90 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 38%
62% A
5
EVENTS LOGGED
8
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3
4-2-3-1
4-3-3
7.2
99
DANIEL BI
20
FREDRIK O
8
CLINT LEE
4
BOY KEMPE
3
DENIS ODO
16
MAX BALAR
14
KAMAL SOW
11
RAUL PAUL
 7.6
10
MOHAMED N
7
CHARLES-A
9
MOUSSA SO
26
MAARTEN P
 7.7
2
LUCAS ROS
37
JOSIP SUT
 7.9
15
YOURI BAA
3
ANTON GAA
24
JORTHY MO
 7.7
10
OSCAR GLO
6
YOURI REG
25
WOUT WEGH
23
STEVEN BE
 9.5
11
MIKA GODT
SUBSTITUTES · NAC BREDA
31
Kostas Lampr...
G
32
Juho Talviti...
F
55
Brahim Ghali...
F
90
Lewis Holtby
M
26
Pepijn Reule...
F
25
Cherrion Val...
D
24
André Ayew
F
22
Rio Hillen
D
21
Jayden Cande...
D
19
Amine Salama
F
15
Enes Mahmuto...
D
1
Roy Kortsmit
G
COACH: Carl Hoefkens
SUBSTITUTES · AJAX
43
Rayane Bouni...
F
45
R. van de Pa...
D
30
Aaron Bouwma...
D
48
Sean Steur
M
52
Paul Reverso...
G
19
Don-Angelo K...
F
17
Oliver Edvar...
F
9
Kasper Dolbe...
F
7
Maher Carriz...
F
5
Owen Wijndal
D
4
Ko Itakura
D
62
Aymean el Ha...
G
COACH: Oscar Garcia Junyent
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
NAC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

AJA · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
—
NAC MANAGER
Carl Hoefkens
head coach
AJA MANAGER
Oscar Garcia Junyent
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
1
NAC WINS
2
DRAWS
7
AJA WINS
10%
20%
70%
7 – 30
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
3.70
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
27 Sep 25
Ajax
2 – 1
NAC Breda
L
06 Apr 25
Ajax
3 – 1
NAC Breda
L
18 Aug 24
NAC Breda
2 – 1
Ajax
W
17 Feb 19
Ajax
5 – 0
NAC Breda
L
24 Nov 18
NAC Breda
0 – 3
Ajax
L
NAC BREDA LAST 5 OVERALL
D D L L D
AJAX LAST 5 OVERALL
W L D W L
MATCH IMPACT Final 0–2 · result locked
NAC BREDA #17
Lost · already at 25 pts
Relegation - Eerste Divisie
AJAX #4
Won · already at 54 pts
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 PSV Eindhoven 31 25 2 4 +49 77
W W W L L
2 Feyenoord 31 17 7 7 +23 58
W D D D W
3 NEC Nijmegen 31 15 10 6 +24 55
D D W D W
4 Ajax 31 14 12 5 +22 54
W W L D W
5 Twente 31 14 12 5 +19 54
D W W W L
6 AZ Alkmaar 31 14 7 10 +7 49
D W W L W
7 Heerenveen 31 13 8 10 +4 47
W L W D W
8 Utrecht 31 12 8 11 +8 44
L W L W W
9 Groningen 31 12 6 13 +3 42
L D W W D
10 Sparta Rotterdam 31 12 6 13 -17 42
L L D W L
11 GO Ahead Eagles 31 8 13 10 +5 37
D D W L W
12 Fortuna Sittard 31 10 6 15 -12 36
L D L L W
13 PEC Zwolle 31 8 10 13 -25 34
L D L W D
14 Excelsior 31 8 7 16 -15 31
W D L D L
15 FC Volendam 31 8 7 16 -17 31
W L D L L
16 Telstar 31 7 9 15 -10 30
W L L W L
17 NAC Breda 31 5 10 16 -23 25
L D D L L
18 Heracles 31 5 4 22 -45 19
L L L D L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 85'
    Card · Yellow Card · Wout Weghorst
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 82'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Mika Godts
  • 82'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Clint Leemans
  • 78'
    Card · Yellow Card · Ko Itakura
    Holding
  • 72'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Youri Regeer
  • 72'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Steven Berghuis
  • 71'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Maximilien Balard
  • 56'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Oscar Gloukh
  • 56'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Moussa Soumano
  • 56'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Charles-Andreas Brym
  • 56'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Raul Paula
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 2
  • 41'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Mika Godts
  • 20'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Oscar Gloukh
22 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 22 BOOKMAKERS
NAC BREDA WIN
3.28
30.5% implied
↑ best 3.60
DRAW
3.60
27.8% implied
↑ best 4.00
AJAX WIN
2.04
49% implied
↑ best 2.17

Market favors Ajax. AI projects AJAX 44%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS AJAX 44% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 3.40 3.80 1.95 +1.7%
10Bet 3.55 3.60 1.96 +0.2%
1xbet 3.46 4.00 2.04 +3.0%
1xBet 3.60 3.76 2.01 +1.4%
888Sport 3.30 3.60 1.95 +0.2%
888Sport 3.40 3.50 1.95 -0.6%
Bet365 3.40 4.00 1.95 +3.0%
Betano 3.60 3.70 2.00 +1.0%
Betfair 3.25 3.50 2.10 -0.6%
Betfair 3.50 3.70 1.95 +1.0%
Betsson 3.15 3.40 2.05 -1.4%
BetVictor 3.60 3.60 1.95 +0.2%
bwin 3.00 3.30 2.05 -2.3%
Cashpoint 3.18 3.33 2.06 -2.0%
CloudBet 3.25 3.40 2.11 -1.4%
Coral 3.20 3.70 2.10 +1.0%
Dafabet 3.60 3.85 1.99 +2.0%
Dafabet 3.50 3.80 2.03 +1.7%
HKJC 3.02 3.40 1.97 -1.4%
Interwetten 3.25 3.75 2.05 +1.3%
Ladbrokes 3.20 3.70 2.10 +1.0%
MansionBet 3.10 3.35 2.17 -1.9%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.21 U 4.05
2.5 O 1.72 U 2.10
3.5 O 2.74 U 1.42
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.55 16 bks
NO
2.32 16 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.38
Away -0.5 1.32
Away -0.75 1.20
Away -1 1.08
Away -1.25 1.07
Away -1.5 1.06
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.