GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · DRAW 58% · Value: BTTS Yes 66%
CONF 72 FULL ANALYSIS →
Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 18 · SUN, 02 AUG · 00:30 LOCAL
MINNESOTA UNITED FC
10TH · 28 PTS · LAST 5:
W L D D L
FT
1 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 1-0
SAN DIEGO
W L W W L
· 11TH · 27 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 3' T. Chancalay
GOALS
⚽ 64' A. Dreyer (P)
C. dos Santos
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
C. dos Santos
San Diego · 92 mins
· 20% pass acc
RATING
8.2
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

0.92
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.47
32%
BALL POSSESSION %
68%
13
TOTAL SHOTS
13
8
SHOTS ON TARGET
2
82%
PASS ACCURACY %
90%
7
CORNERS
4
KEY EVENTS 12 events
  1. 3'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    T. Chancalay · assist W. Trapp
    MIN
  2. 61'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    K. Sargeant · assist Luca Bombino
    SAN
  3. 61'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    D. Vazquez · assist A. Mighten
    SAN
  4. 61'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    A. Alvarado · assist Gabriel Pirani
    SAN
  5. 64'
    Goal · Penalty
    A. Dreyer
    SAN
  6. 64'
    Card · Yellow Card
    A. Dreyer
    SAN
  7. 64'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Drake Callender
    MIN
  8. 65'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    A. Markanich · assist D. Padelford
    MIN
  9. 65'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Mamadou Dieng · assist K. Yeboah
    MIN
  10. 80'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    T. Chancalay · assist M. Gonzalez
    MIN
  11. 80'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    K. Duncan · assist Bongokuhle Hlongwane
    MIN
  12. 84'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    O. Valakari · assist A. Godoy
    SAN
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
MINNESOTA UNITED FC AVG 7.1
SAN DIEGO AVG 7.5
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
0.9
xG
1.5
13.0
TOTAL SHOTS
13.0
8.0
ON TARGET
2.0
4.0
OFF TARGET
9.0
1.0
BLOCKED
2.0
POSSESSION
32.0%
POSSESSION %
68.0%
332.0
PASSES
726.0
82.0%
PASS ACCURACY
90.0%
SET PIECES
7.0
CORNERS
4.0
0.0
OFFSIDES
3.0
DISCIPLINE
8.0
FOULS
3.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
1.0
1.0
GK SAVES
7.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
MINNESOTA UNITED FC 8 shots
J. Pereyra
2/4
T. Chancalay
2/3
W. Trapp
1/1
SAN DIEGO 3 shots
A. Dreyer
2/3
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 0.92 – 1.47
1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 1.5 0.0 HT 3' 64' H 0.92 A 1.47 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 50%
50% A
6
EVENTS LOGGED
6
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 5-4-1 vs 4-3-3
5-4-1
4-3-3
12
DRAKE CAL
13
A. MARKAN
 6.9
23
MORRIS DU
15
MICHAEL B
28
JEFFERSON
3
K. DUNCAN
 7.0
8
T. CHANCA
 6.9
30
O. GENE
 7.3
20
W. TRAPP
 7.3
26
J. PEREYR
29
MAMADOU
 8.2
1
C. DOS SA
5
KIERAN SA
 7.2
26
M. DUAH
 7.6
97
C. MCVEY
3
D. ÞóR­HA
8
O. VALAKA
 7.6
6
JEPPE TVE
70
A. ALVARA
19
D. VAZQUE
7
M. INGVAR
 7.0
10
A. DREYER
SUBSTITUTES · MINNESOTA UNITED FC
7
Dominik Fitz
M
21
Bongokuhle H...
F
9
K. Yeboah
F
18
M. Gonzalez
F
67
C. Harvey
M
2
D. Padelford
D
24
Julian Gress...
M
1
Alec Smir
G
22
M. Caldeira
F
COACH: Cameron Knowles
SUBSTITUTES · SAN DIEGO
14
B. B. Zamble
F
9
L. Morgan
F
12
Gabriel Pira...
M
20
A. Godoy
M
27
Luca Bombino
D
25
I. Pilcher
D
33
O. Verhoeven
D
18
D. Ferree
G
77
A. Mighten
F
COACH: Mikey Varas
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
MIN · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

SAN · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
T. Ford
—
MIN MANAGER
Cameron Knowles
head coach
SAN MANAGER
Mikey Varas
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
2
MIN WINS
0
DRAWS
2
SAN WINS
50%
50%
7 – 7
TOTAL GOALS · 4 MEETINGS
3.50
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 4 / 4
12 Apr 2026
San Diego
1 – 2
Minnesota United FC
W
25 Nov 2025
San Diego
1 – 0
Minnesota United FC
L
14 Sep 2025
San Diego
1 – 3
Minnesota United FC
W
15 Jun 2025
Minnesota United FC
2 – 4
San Diego
L
MINNESOTA UNITED FC LAST 5 OVERALL
W L D D L
SAN DIEGO LAST 5 OVERALL
W L W W L
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–1 · result locked
MINNESOTA UNITED FC #10
Lost · already at 28 pts
SAN DIEGO #11
Lost · already at 27 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 20 12 4 4 +27 40
W L W D D
1 Nashville SC 21 15 4 2 +26 49
W W W D L
2 Houston Dynamo 21 12 2 7 +4 38
L W W W W
2 Inter Miami 21 11 6 4 +9 39
L D L D W
3 Los Angeles FC 22 10 5 7 +14 35
D L L D W
3 Chicago Fire 20 11 3 6 +11 36
D W W W L
4 New England Revolution 21 10 4 7 +7 34
D W L L D
4 San Jose Earthquakes 21 10 3 8 +6 33
L L L L D
5 FC Dallas 21 9 6 6 +4 33
L W W D L
5 Charlotte 21 9 5 7 +6 32
W D W L W
6 St. Louis City 21 9 6 6 +3 33
W D W D W
6 FC Cincinnati 21 8 7 6 +2 31
D W D W L
7 Colorado Rapids 21 9 1 11 +2 28
L W W W L
7 New York City FC 21 7 6 8 +5 27
D L L D W
8 New York Red Bulls 21 7 5 9 -12 26
D L L W L
8 Real Salt Lake 20 8 4 8 +2 28
L L D D L
9 Portland Timbers 21 8 4 9 +1 28
D W L W W
9 Orlando City SC 21 7 3 11 -17 24
W L D L W
10 Minnesota United FC 21 7 7 7 -2 28
W L D D D
10 Toronto FC 21 5 9 7 -6 24
W D W D L
11 San Diego 21 7 6 8 +5 27
W L W D W
11 DC United 21 5 9 7 -8 24
L L D D W
12 Philadelphia Union 21 5 6 10 -7 21
D D W W W
12 Los Angeles Galaxy 22 6 8 8 -5 26
D W L D D
13 Seattle Sounders 20 7 4 9 -5 25
D L L L L
13 CF Montreal 21 5 6 10 -10 21
D W D D L
14 Austin 21 5 6 10 -14 21
D W L L L
14 Columbus Crew 21 5 5 11 -6 20
L L L D W
15 Sporting Kansas City 20 4 3 13 -30 15
D L L L W
15 Atlanta United FC 20 5 3 12 -12 18
W W L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 84'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · O. Valakari
  • 80'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · K. Duncan
  • 80'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · T. Chancalay
  • 65'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Mamadou Dieng
  • 65'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · A. Markanich
  • 64'
    Card · Yellow Card · Drake Callender
  • 64'
    Card · Yellow Card · A. Dreyer
  • 64'
    Goal · Penalty · A. Dreyer
  • 61'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · A. Alvarado
  • 61'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · D. Vazquez
  • 61'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · K. Sargeant
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 0
  • 3'
    Goal · Normal Goal · T. Chancalay
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
MINNESOTA UNITED WIN
2.02
49.5% implied
↑ best 2.10
DRAW
3.75
26.7% implied
↑ best 3.90
SAN DIEGO WIN
3.30
30.3% implied
↑ best 3.49

Market favors Minnesota United FC. AI projects DRAW 58% · value bet BTTS Yes.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS DRAW 58% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.97 3.85 3.30 +32.0%
888Sport 2.05 3.50 3.10 +29.4%
Bet365 2.10 3.75 3.30 +31.3%
Betano 2.05 3.75 3.35 +31.3%
Betfair 1.95 3.90 3.30 +32.4%
BetVictor 2.00 3.80 3.25 +31.7%
Dafabet 2.03 3.90 3.45 +32.4%
Marathonbet 1.97 3.75 3.35 +31.3%
Pinnacle 2.05 3.85 3.49 +32.0%
SBO 2.04 3.59 3.12 +30.1%
Superbet 2.02 3.80 3.40 +31.7%
Unibet 1.98 3.80 3.35 +31.7%
William Hill 2.05 3.50 3.10 +29.4%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.15 U 5.10
2.5 O 1.54 U 2.41
3.5 O 2.33 U 1.58
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.48 10 bks
NO
2.51 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.06
Away -0.5 1.80
Away -0.75 1.60
Away -1 1.41
Away -1.25 1.33
Away -1.5 1.29
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.