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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–0 · TOLUCA 58%
CONF 48 FULL ANALYSIS →
Liga MX · CLAUSURA - QUARTER-FINALS · MON, 04 MAY · 01:15 LOCAL
TOLUCA
5TH · 30 PTS · LAST 5:
W L L D D
FT
0 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 0-1
PACHUCA
L L W D W
· 4TH · 31 PTS · LAST 5
GOALS
⚽ 8' Enner Valencia
Luis García
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Luis García
Toluca · 90 mins
· 28% pass acc
RATING
8.3
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 2 CLIPS

powered by Highlightly
Resumen y gol - Toluca vs Pachuca | Liga MX - Cuartos de Final - Ida Clausura 2026 | TUDN
Open in Youtube ↗
Liga MX: Toluca vs Pachuca
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

120%
BALL POSSESSION %
72%
16
TOTAL SHOTS
15
4
SHOTS ON TARGET
6
536%
PASS ACCURACY %
170%
10
CORNERS
4
KEY EVENTS 15 events
  1. 8'
    Goal · 0-1
    Enner Valencia · assist Elías Montiel
    PAC
  2. 41'
    Card · Time wasting
    Alán Ernesto Bautista Gutiérrez
    PAC
  3. 60'
    Subst
    Paulinho · assist Sebastián Córdova
    TOL
  4. 60'
    Subst
    Nicolás Castro · assist Jesús Angulo
    TOL
  5. 60'
    Subst
    Santiago Simón · assist Diego Barbosa
    TOL
  6. 64'
    Subst
    Alexéi Domínguez · assist Oussama Idrissi
    PAC
  7. 75'
    Subst
    Franco Rossi · assist Pável Pérez
    TOL
  8. 75'
    Subst
    René López Aburto · assist Carlos Adrián Sánchez Nava
    PAC
  9. 76'
    Card · Foul
    Alek Álvarez
    TOL
  10. 82'
    Subst
    Mauricio Isaís · assist Alek Álvarez
    TOL
  11. 85'
    Var
    Franco Rossi
    TOL
  12. 90'
    Subst
    Jorge Ernesto Berlanga Vázquez · assist Kenedy
    PAC
  13. 90'
    Subst
    Sergio Lenin Rodriguez · assist Elías Montiel
    PAC
  14. 90'+3
    Card · Argument
    TOL
  15. 90'+7
    Card · Foul
    Sergio Lenin Rodriguez
    PAC
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
TOLUCA AVG 7.4
PACHUCA AVG 7.4
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
16.0
TOTAL SHOTS
15.0
4.0
ON TARGET
6.0
10.0
OFF TARGET
5.0
2.0
BLOCKED
4.0
POSSESSION
120.0%
POSSESSION %
72.0%
600.0
PASSES
240.0
536.0%
PASS ACCURACY
170.0%
SET PIECES
10.0
CORNERS
4.0
10.0
OFFSIDES
12.0
DISCIPLINE
10.0
FOULS
14.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
2.0
5.0
GK SAVES
4.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
TOLUCA 6 shots
Marcel Ruíz
1/5
Pavel Pérez
0/1
PACHUCA 4 shots
Kenedy
2/2
E. Valencia
1/1
C. Rivera
0/1
⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 53%
47% A
8
EVENTS LOGGED
7
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
22
LUIS GARC
25
EVERARDO
35
ALEK ÁLVA
4
BRUNO MéN
2
DIEGO BAR
14
MARCEL RU
5
FRANCO RO
15
PáVEL PéR
10
JESúS ANG
7
SEBASTIáN
29
JORGE DíA
25
CARLOS MO
2
SERGIO DA
26
ALáN ERNE
14
CARLOS AD
4
EDUARDO G
16
CHRISTIAN
8
VíCTOR AL
29
KENEDY
28
ELíAS MON
11
OUSSAMA I
10
ENNER VAL
SUBSTITUTES · TOLUCA
33
Víctor Artea...
M
27
Franco Rossi
F
1
Hugo Gonzále...
G
26
Paulinho
F
24
Fernando Arc...
M
19
Santiago Sim...
M
17
Mauricio Isa...
D
8
Nicolás Cast...
M
206
Érick Orta
D
COACH: Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich Antonio
SUBSTITUTES · PACHUCA
31
José Ángel E...
G
184
Cristóbal Sa...
D
187
Gael Arturo...
F
139
Jonatan Ramí...
F
21
René López A...
D
18
Alexéi Domín...
F
13
Jorge Ernest...
D
7
Luis Enrique...
F
5
Pedro Pedraz...
M
188
Sergio Lenin...
M
COACH: Jaime Lozano
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
TOL · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

PAC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Fernando Hernandez, Mexico
—
TOL MANAGER
Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich Antonio
head coach
PAC MANAGER
Jaime Lozano
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
4
TOL WINS
4
DRAWS
2
PAC WINS
40%
40%
20%
20 – 18
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
3.80
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
22 Mar 2026
Pachuca
1 – 1
Toluca
D
27 Oct 2025
Toluca
2 – 2
Pachuca
D
29 Mar 2025
Toluca
3 – 2
Pachuca
W
18 Sep 2024
Pachuca
2 – 2
Toluca
D
31 Mar 2024
Pachuca
2 – 3
Toluca
W
TOLUCA LAST 5 OVERALL
W L L D D
PACHUCA LAST 5 OVERALL
L L W D W
MATCH IMPACT Final 0–1 · result locked
TOLUCA #5
Lost · already at 30 pts
Playoffs
PACHUCA #4
Won · already at 31 pts
Playoffs
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 17 10 6 1 +17 36
D W W W W
2 Guadalajara Chivas 17 11 3 3 +16 36
L D D W L
3 Cruz Azul 17 9 6 2 +13 33
W W D D D
4 Pachuca 17 9 4 4 +6 31
W L L W W
5 Toluca 17 8 6 3 +12 30
L W L L D
6 Atlas 17 7 5 5 -2 26
L W D W D
7 Tigres UANL 17 7 4 6 +10 25
W W D D W
8 Club America 17 7 4 6 +3 25
D L W W D
9 Club Tijuana 17 5 8 4 +2 23
D W D W W
10 Leon 17 7 1 9 -10 22
L L W W W
11 Club Queretaro 17 4 8 5 -4 20
W D D W D
12 FC Juarez 17 5 4 8 -6 19
W L L L D
13 Monterrey 17 5 3 9 -2 18
L W L D L
14 Atletico San Luis 17 5 3 9 -3 18
L W L D W
15 Necaxa 17 5 3 9 -6 18
L D D L W
16 Mazatlán 17 4 3 10 -15 15
L W D L L
17 Puebla 17 3 4 10 -13 13
L L L L D
18 Santos Laguna 17 3 3 11 -18 12
W L L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+7
    Card · Foul · Sergio Lenin Rodriguez
    3rd Yellowcard
  • 90'+3
    Card · Argument
    4th Yellowcard
  • 90'
    Subst · Sergio Lenin Rodriguez
    9th Substitution
  • 90'
    Subst · Jorge Ernesto Berlanga Vázquez
    8th Substitution
  • 85'
    Var · Franco Rossi
    Var
  • 82'
    Subst · Mauricio Isaís
    7th Substitution
  • 76'
    Card · Foul · Alek Álvarez
    2nd Yellowcard
  • 75'
    Subst · René López Aburto
    5th Substitution
  • 75'
    Subst · Franco Rossi
    6th Substitution
  • 64'
    Subst · Alexéi Domínguez
    4th Substitution
  • 60'
    Subst · Santiago Simón
    3rd Substitution
  • 60'
    Subst · Nicolás Castro
    1st Substitution
  • 60'
    Subst · Paulinho
    2nd Substitution
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 1
  • 41'
    Card · Time wasting · Alán Ernesto Bautista Gutiérrez
    1st Yellowcard
  • 8'
    Goal · 0-1 · Enner Valencia
    1st Goal
30 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 30 BOOKMAKERS
TOLUCA WIN
1.85
54.1% implied
↑ best 1.95
DRAW
3.63
27.5% implied
↑ best 4.00
PACHUCA WIN
3.83
26.1% implied
↑ best 4.45

Market favors Toluca. AI projects TOLUCA 58%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS TOLUCA 58% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.90 3.70 3.65 +5.4%
10Bet 1.78 3.70 4.20 +1.8%
1xbet 1.88 3.84 3.99 +4.8%
1xBet 1.77 3.74 4.14 +1.5%
Bet365 1.75 4.00 4.33 +0.9%
Betano 1.83 3.90 4.45 +3.4%
Betfair 1.85 3.40 3.80 +3.9%
Betfair 1.75 3.90 4.00 +0.9%
Betsson 1.78 3.70 4.15 +1.8%
BetVictor 1.75 3.80 4.20 +0.9%
bwin 1.88 3.60 3.75 +4.8%
Cashpoint 1.95 3.60 3.46 +6.7%
CloudBet 1.91 3.70 3.90 +5.6%
Coral 1.83 3.40 3.50 +3.4%
Dafabet 1.89 3.60 3.55 +5.1%
Dafabet 1.76 3.65 4.00 +1.2%
Interwetten 1.95 3.45 3.55 +6.7%
Ladbrokes 1.83 3.40 3.50 +3.4%
MansionBet 1.84 3.75 3.70 +3.7%
Marathonbet 1.85 3.62 3.82 +3.9%
Marathonbet 1.75 3.74 4.15 +0.9%
MelBet 1.87 3.64 3.78 +4.5%
Pinnacle 1.93 3.77 3.97 +6.2%
Pinnacle 1.82 3.93 4.33 +3.1%
Sbo 1.92 3.37 3.44 +5.9%
SBO 1.79 3.48 3.85 +2.1%
Unibet 1.78 3.75 4.10 +1.8%
Unibet 1.75 3.75 4.20 +0.9%
William Hill 1.75 3.40 3.80 +0.9%
WilliamHill 1.85 3.30 3.50 +3.9%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.20 U 4.08
2.5 O 1.69 U 2.09
3.5 O 2.74 U 1.43
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.61 14 bks
NO
2.16 14 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.36
Away -0.5 2.03
Away -0.75 1.79
Away -1 1.56
Away -1.25 1.43
Away -1.5 1.34
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.