GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 2–1 · LYON 46% · Value: Over 2.5 62%
CONF 52 FULL ANALYSIS →
Ligue 1 · REGULAR SEASON - 32 · SUN, 03 MAY · 18:45 LOCAL
LYON
4TH · 60 PTS · LAST 5:
L L W W W
FT
4 – 2
FULL TIME HT · 2-1
RENNES
L W W W W
· 6TH · 59 PTS · LAST 5
GOALS
⚽ 6' Mousa Tamari ⚽ 48' Esteban Lepaul
Corentin Tolisso
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Corentin Tolisso
Lyon · Captain · 95 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 🅰 2 assists · 31% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
8.7
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

94%
BALL POSSESSION %
62%
16
TOTAL SHOTS
8
9
SHOTS ON TARGET
5
333%
PASS ACCURACY %
345%
7
CORNERS
5
KEY EVENTS 10 events
  1. 6'
    Goal · 0-1
    Mousa Tamari · assist Esteban Lepaul
    REN
  2. 23'
    Card · Foul
    Esteban Lepaul
    REN
  3. 40'
    Card · Foul
    Brice Samba
    REN
  4. 48'
    Goal · 2-2
    Esteban Lepaul · assist Mousa Tamari
    REN
  5. 70'
    Subst
    Ludovic Blas · assist Sebastian Szymanski
    REN
  6. 71'
    Subst
    Mahamadou Nagida · assist Alidu Seidu
    REN
  7. 83'
    Card · Foul
    Quentin Merlin
    REN
  8. 87'
    Subst
    Djaoui Cissé · assist Mahdi Camara
    REN
  9. 87'
    Subst
    Nordan Mukiele · assist Mousa Tamari
    REN
  10. 87'
    Subst
    Yassir Zabiri · assist Esteban Lepaul
    REN
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
LYON AVG 8.1
RENNES AVG 7.1
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
16.0
TOTAL SHOTS
8.0
9.0
ON TARGET
5.0
3.0
OFF TARGET
3.0
4.0
BLOCKED
0.0
POSSESSION
94.0%
POSSESSION %
62.0%
398.0
PASSES
410.0
333.0%
PASS ACCURACY
345.0%
SET PIECES
7.0
CORNERS
5.0
14.0
OFFSIDES
22.0
DISCIPLINE
10.0
FOULS
14.0
0.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
3.0
GK SAVES
5.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
LYON 8 shots
Afonso Moreira
2/3
Endrick
1/2
Roman Yaremchuk
2/2
Corentin Tolisso
1/1
RENNES 4 shots
Esteban Lepaul
2/3
Mousa Tamari
1/1
⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 0%
100% A
0
EVENTS LOGGED
10
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-4-2
4-2-3-1
4-4-2
7.3
1
D. GREIF
16
ABNER VIN
19
MOUSSA NI
22
CLINTON M
98
AINSLEY M
 8.7
8
CORENTIN
23
TYLER MOR
 8.3
17
AFONSO MO
44
K. MERAH
 8.5
9
ENDRICK
 7.9
77
ROMAN YAR
 6.9
30
BRICE SAM
26
QUENTIN M
3
LILIAN BR
48
ABDELHAMI
36
ALIDU SEI
 7.3
11
MOUSA TAM
45
MAHDI CAM
 7.0
21
VALENTIN
17
SEBASTIAN
 7.6
9
ESTEBAN L
7
BREEL EMB
SUBSTITUTES · LYON
37
Ernest Nuama...
F
99
N. Nartey
M
7
A. Karabec
M
11
Malick Fofan...
F
39
Mathys de Ca...
M
3
Nicolás Tagl...
D
21
Ruben Kluive...
D
40
R. Descamps
G
10
P. Šulc
M
COACH: Paulo Fonseca
SUBSTITUTES · RENNES
65
Nordan Mukie...
F
4
Glen Kamara
M
6
Djaoui Cissé
M
10
Ludovic Blas
F
24
Anthony Roua...
D
18
Mahamadou Na...
D
50
Mathys Silis...
G
60
Kilian Belaz...
G
77
Yassir Zabir...
F
COACH: Franck Haise
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
LYO · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

REN · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
C. Turpin
—
LYO MANAGER
Paulo Fonseca
head coach
REN MANAGER
Franck Haise
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
4
LYO WINS
0
DRAWS
6
REN WINS
40%
60%
17 – 22
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
3.90
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
14 Sep 2025
Rennes
3 – 1
Lyon
L
26 Apr 2025
Lyon
4 – 1
Rennes
W
18 Aug 2024
Rennes
3 – 0
Lyon
L
26 Jan 2024
Lyon
2 – 3
Rennes
L
12 Nov 2023
Rennes
0 – 1
Lyon
W
LYON LAST 5 OVERALL
L L W W W
RENNES LAST 5 OVERALL
L W W W W
MATCH IMPACT Final 4–2 · result locked
LYON #4
Won · already at 60 pts
Champions League Qualification
RENNES #6
Lost · already at 59 pts
Conference League Qualification
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Paris Saint Germain 34 24 4 6 +45 76
L W W D W
2 Lens 34 22 4 8 +31 70
W L W D D
3 Lille 34 18 7 9 +15 61
L W D W D
4 Lyon 34 18 6 10 +13 60
L L W W W
5 Marseille 34 18 5 11 +18 59
W W L D L
6 Rennes 34 17 8 9 +9 59
L W L W W
7 Monaco 34 16 6 12 +6 54
L L W D D
8 Strasbourg 34 15 8 11 +11 53
W W D L W
9 Lorient 34 11 12 11 -3 45
L W D L W
10 Toulouse 33 12 8 13 +1 44
W W D L L
11 Paris FC 34 11 11 12 -3 44
W L W L W
12 Stade Brestois 29 34 10 9 15 -12 39
D L L L D
13 Angers 34 9 9 16 -19 36
D D L L D
14 Le Havre 34 7 14 13 -12 35
W L D D D
15 Auxerre 34 8 10 16 -10 34
W W W L D
16 Nice 34 7 11 16 -23 32
D D L D D
17 Nantes 33 5 8 20 -23 23
L W L L D
18 Metz 34 3 8 23 -44 17
D L L D L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 87'
    Subst · Yassir Zabiri
    9th Substitution
  • 87'
    Subst · Nordan Mukiele
    8th Substitution
  • 87'
    Subst · Djaoui Cissé
    7th Substitution
  • 83'
    Card · Foul · Quentin Merlin
    3rd Yellowcard
  • 71'
    Subst · Mahamadou Nagida
    3rd Substitution
  • 70'
    Subst · Ludovic Blas
    1st Substitution
  • 48'
    Goal · 2-2 · Esteban Lepaul
    3rd Goal
  • HALF TIME · 2 – 1
  • 40'
    Card · Foul · Brice Samba
    2nd Yellowcard
  • 23'
    Card · Foul · Esteban Lepaul
    1st Yellowcard
  • 6'
    Goal · 0-1 · Mousa Tamari
    1st Goal
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
LYON WIN
2.09
47.8% implied
↑ best 2.16
DRAW
3.75
26.7% implied
↑ best 3.94
RENNES WIN
3.21
31.2% implied
↑ best 3.36

Market favors Lyon. AI projects LYON 46% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS LYON 46% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.06 3.75 3.15 -0.7%
1xBet 2.16 3.94 3.36 +0.6%
888Sport 2.10 3.50 3.10 -1.6%
Bet365 2.05 3.90 3.20 +0.4%
Betano 2.10 3.70 3.25 -1.0%
Betfair 2.05 3.60 3.25 -1.8%
BetVictor 2.05 3.90 3.20 +0.4%
Dafabet 2.12 3.85 3.25 +0.0%
Marathonbet 2.13 3.82 3.32 -0.2%
Pinnacle 2.13 3.88 3.33 +0.2%
SBO 2.11 3.56 2.99 -1.4%
Unibet 2.04 3.80 3.20 -0.3%
William Hill 2.10 3.60 3.10 -1.6%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.14 U 5.09
2.5 O 1.53 U 2.46
3.5 O 2.30 U 1.62
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.45 10 bks
NO
2.58 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.01
Away -0.5 1.75
Away -0.75 1.56
Away -1 1.39
Away -1.25 1.31
Away -1.5 1.25
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.