GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · ATLAS 43%
CONF 48 FULL ANALYSIS →
Liga MX · APERTURA - 1 · SAT, 18 JUL · 01:00 LOCAL
LEON
10TH · 22 PTS · LAST 5:
L L W W L
FT
2 – 3
FULL TIME HT · 1-1
ATLAS
L L W D W
· 6TH · 26 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 27' Diber Cambindo ⚽ 77' Jordi Cortizo
GOALS
⚽ 2' Duk ⚽ 50' Arturo González ⚽ 73' Aldo Rocha (P)
Jordi Cortizo
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Jordi Cortizo
Leon · 40 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 17% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
7.9
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.23
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.72
46%
BALL POSSESSION %
54%
16
TOTAL SHOTS
9
8
SHOTS ON TARGET
7
81%
PASS ACCURACY %
83%
6
CORNERS
2
KEY EVENTS 19 events
  1. 2'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Duk
    ATL
  2. 27'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Diber Cambindo
    LEO
  3. 42'
    Card · Red Card
    Diber Cambindo
    LEO
  4. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Jorge Rodríguez · assist Milton Valenzuela
    ATL
  5. 50'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Arturo González · assist Gustavo Ferrareis
    ATL
  6. 55'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Sebastián Santos · assist Jordi Cortizo
    LEO
  7. 56'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Ismael Díaz · assist José Alvarado
    LEO
  8. 56'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Daniel Arcila · assist Edgar Guerra
    LEO
  9. 58'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Arturo González · assist Luís Esteves
    ATL
  10. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Edgar Zaldívar · assist Victor Rios
    ATL
  11. 73'
    Goal · Penalty
    Aldo Rocha
    ATL
  12. 73'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Rodrigo Echeverría
    LEO
  13. 74'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Rodrigo Echeverría · assist Luis Valadez
    LEO
  14. 77'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Jordi Cortizo · assist José Alvarado
    LEO
  15. 82'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Iván Moreno · assist F. Beltran Cruz
    LEO
  16. 84'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Manuel Capasso
    ATL
  17. 85'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Aldo Rocha
    ATL
  18. 89'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Duk · assist Jose Lozano
    ATL
  19. 90'+9
    Card · Yellow Card
    José Alvarado
    LEO
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
LEON AVG 7.1
ATLAS AVG 7.3
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.2
xG
1.7
16.0
TOTAL SHOTS
9.0
8.0
ON TARGET
7.0
6.0
OFF TARGET
1.0
2.0
BLOCKED
1.0
POSSESSION
46.0%
POSSESSION %
54.0%
350.0
PASSES
421.0
81.0%
PASS ACCURACY
83.0%
SET PIECES
6.0
CORNERS
2.0
0.0
OFFSIDES
4.0
DISCIPLINE
14.0
FOULS
9.0
2.0
YELLOW CARDS
2.0
1.0
RED CARDS
0.0
4.0
GK SAVES
6.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
LEON 4 shots
Fernando Beltrán
1/2
Jordi Cortizo
1/1
José Alvarado
1/1
ATLAS 5 shots
Arturo González
2/3
Duk
1/1
Aldo Rocha
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.23 – 1.72
1.4 1 0.7 0.3 1.7 0.0 HT 27' 77' 2' 50' 73' H 1.23 A 1.72 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 53%
47% A
10
EVENTS LOGGED
9
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-1-4-1 vs 4-2-3-1
4-1-4-1
4-2-3-1
6.7
23
OSCAR GAR
26
SALVADOR
 7.2
5
SEBASTIáN
3
JUAN GUEV
7
IVáN MORE
29
JOSé RODR
11
ISMAEL Dí
13
DANIEL AR
20
RODRIGO E
22
SEBASTIáN
27
DIBER CAM
22
ANTONIO S
5
JORGE ROD
21
RODRIGO S
28
MANUEL CA
 6.9
2
GUSTAVO F
6
EDGAR ZAL
 7.3
26
ALDO ROCH
 6.9
23
SERGIO HE
 7.3
58
ARTURO GO
 7.9
11
DUK
8
RYAN MMAE
SUBSTITUTES · LEON
35
Luis Valadez
M
185
Christopher...
D
33
Abraham Vill...
D
25
Paul Bellón
D
4
Bryan Colula
D
1
Jordan Garcí...
G
18
Edgar Guerra
M
19
José Alvarad...
F
16
Jordi Cortiz...
M
6
Fernando Bel...
M
COACH: Javier Gandolfi
SUBSTITUTES · ATLAS
15
Paulo Ramíre...
D
192
Jesús Serrat...
M
13
Gaddi Aguirr...
D
4
Adrián Mora
D
17
Jose Lozano
D
27
Victor Rios
M
10
Luís Esteves
M
16
Milton Valen...
D
203
Jose Martin
F
COACH: Diego Cocca
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
LEO · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

ATL · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Jesus Rafael Lopez Valle, Mexico
—
LEO MANAGER
Javier Gandolfi
head coach
ATL MANAGER
Diego Cocca
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
5
LEO WINS
3
DRAWS
2
ATL WINS
50%
30%
20%
12 – 8
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.00
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
05 Apr 2026
Leon
2 – 0
Atlas
W
23 Oct 2025
Atlas
2 – 0
Leon
L
19 Jan 2025
Atlas
1 – 2
Leon
W
24 Oct 2024
Leon
0 – 0
Atlas
D
18 Feb 2024
Atlas
0 – 1
Leon
W
LEON LAST 5 OVERALL
L L W W L
ATLAS LAST 5 OVERALL
L L W D W
MATCH IMPACT Final 2–3 · result locked
LEON #10
Lost · already at 22 pts
ATLAS #6
Won · already at 26 pts
Playoffs
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 17 10 6 1 +17 36
L D W L D
2 Guadalajara Chivas 17 11 3 3 +16 36
L D W L D
3 Cruz Azul 17 9 6 2 +13 33
W D W D W
4 Pachuca 17 9 4 4 +6 31
L W W W L
5 Toluca 17 8 6 3 +12 30
L L W L L
6 Atlas 17 7 5 5 -2 26
L L W D W
7 Tigres UANL 17 7 4 6 +10 25
L W W D D
8 Club America 17 7 4 6 +3 25
D D L W W
9 Club Tijuana 17 5 8 4 +2 23
D W D W W
10 Leon 17 7 1 9 -10 22
L L W W W
11 Club Queretaro 17 4 8 5 -4 20
W D D W D
12 FC Juarez 17 5 4 8 -6 19
W L L L D
13 Monterrey 17 5 3 9 -2 18
L W L D L
14 Atletico San Luis 17 5 3 9 -3 18
L W L D W
15 Necaxa 17 5 3 9 -6 18
L D D L W
16 Mazatlán 17 4 3 10 -15 15
L W D L L
17 Puebla 17 3 4 10 -13 13
L L L L D
18 Santos Laguna 17 3 3 11 -18 12
W L L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+9
    Card · Yellow Card · José Alvarado
    Foul
  • 89'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Duk
  • 85'
    Card · Yellow Card · Aldo Rocha
    Foul
  • 84'
    Card · Yellow Card · Manuel Capasso
    Foul
  • 82'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Iván Moreno
  • 77'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Jordi Cortizo
  • 74'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Rodrigo Echeverría
  • 73'
    Card · Yellow Card · Rodrigo Echeverría
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 73'
    Goal · Penalty · Aldo Rocha
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Edgar Zaldívar
  • 58'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Arturo González
  • 56'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Daniel Arcila
  • 56'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Ismael Díaz
  • 55'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Sebastián Santos
  • 50'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Arturo González
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Jorge Rodríguez
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 1
  • 42'
    Card · Red Card · Diber Cambindo
    Serious foul
  • 27'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Diber Cambindo
  • 2'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Duk
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
LEON WIN
2.17
46.1% implied
↑ best 2.26
DRAW
3.32
30.1% implied
↑ best 3.42
ATLAS WIN
3.23
31% implied
↑ best 3.60

Market favors Leon. AI projects ATLAS 43%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS ATLAS 43% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.20 3.40 3.15 +11.3%
1xBet 2.18 3.28 3.24 +12.1%
Bet365 2.20 3.30 3.25 +12.2%
Betano 2.25 3.35 3.15 +11.3%
Betfair 2.10 3.40 3.25 +12.2%
Dafabet 2.24 3.40 3.25 +12.2%
Marathonbet 2.16 3.28 3.22 +11.9%
Pinnacle 2.25 3.42 3.31 +12.8%
SBO 2.26 3.09 2.91 +8.6%
Superbet 2.00 3.40 3.60 +15.2%
Unibet 2.00 3.40 3.55 +14.8%
William Hill 2.15 3.10 2.90 +8.5%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.26 U 3.54
2.5 O 1.89 U 1.89
3.5 O 3.16 U 1.32
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.69 9 bks
NO
2.04 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.90
Away -0.5 1.70
Away -0.75 1.49
Away -1 1.30
Away -1.25 1.26
Away -1.5 1.22
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.