GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · KV MECHELEN 42%
CONF 28 FULL ANALYSIS →
Jupiler Pro League · CHAMPIONSHIP GROUP - 35 · SUN 26 APR · 14:00 LOCAL
KV MECHELEN
5TH · 45 PTS · LAST 5:
L L L L D
FT
1 – 4
FULL TIME HT · 1-1
ST. TRUIDEN
W D W W D
· 3RD · 57 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 26' Bouke Boersma
GOALS
⚽ 44' Joedrick Pupe ⚽ 49' Ryan Merlen ⚽ 63' Ilias Sebaoui ⚽ 76' Ryotaro Ito
Ryotaro Ito
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Ryotaro Ito
St. Truiden · 84 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 🅰 1 assist · 46% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
8.2
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 1 CLIP

powered by Highlightly
Jupiler Pro League: KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden
Open in Youtube ↗
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.23
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.05
43%
BALL POSSESSION %
57%
8
TOTAL SHOTS
16
2
SHOTS ON TARGET
10
77%
PASS ACCURACY %
84%
4
CORNERS
7
KEY EVENTS 15 events
  1. 26'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Bouke Boersma · assist Thérence Koudou
    KV
  2. 44'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Joedrick Pupe · assist Ryotaro Ito
    ST.
  3. 46'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Abdoulaye Sissako
    ST.
  4. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Kaito Matsuzawa · assist Ryan Merlen
    ST.
  5. 49'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Ryan Merlen · assist Keisuke Goto
    ST.
  6. 63'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Ilias Sebaoui · assist Ryan Merlen
    ST.
  7. 73'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Thérence Koudou · assist Keano Vanrafelghem
    KV
  8. 73'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Bouke Boersma · assist Benito Raman
    KV
  9. 73'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Joedrick Pupe
    ST.
  10. 76'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Ryotaro Ito · assist Ilias Sebaoui
    ST.
  11. 83'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Ilias Sebaoui · assist Shion Shinkawa
    ST.
  12. 84'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Ryotaro Ito · assist Loïc Mbe Soh
    ST.
  13. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Kerim Mrabti · assist Bilal Bafdili
    KV
  14. 88'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Abdoulaye Sissako · assist Wolke Janssens
    ST.
  15. 90'+2
    Card · Yellow Card
    Fredrik Hammar
    KV
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
KV MECHELEN AVG 7.3
ST. TRUIDEN AVG 7.9
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.2
xG
1.1
8.0
TOTAL SHOTS
16.0
2.0
ON TARGET
10.0
4.0
OFF TARGET
4.0
2.0
BLOCKED
2.0
POSSESSION
43.0%
POSSESSION %
57.0%
325.0
PASSES
436.0
77.0%
PASS ACCURACY
84.0%
SET PIECES
4.0
CORNERS
7.0
1.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
9.0
FOULS
12.0
0.0
YELLOW CARDS
1.0
5.0
GK SAVES
1.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
KV MECHELEN 4 shots
Bouke Boersma
1/2
Mathis Servais
0/1
Thérence Koudou
0/1
ST. TRUIDEN 6 shots
Ryan Merlen
2/2
Ryotaro Ito
1/1
Joedrick Pupe
1/1
Ilias Sebaoui
1/1
Shogo Taniguchi
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.23 – 1.05
1 0.7 0.5 0.2 1.2 0.0 HT 26' 44' 49' 63' 76' H 1.23 A 1.05 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 33%
67% A
5
EVENTS LOGGED
10
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-4-1-2 vs 4-2-3-1
3-4-1-2
4-2-3-1
6.9
13
NACHO MIR
3
JOSé MARS
8
MORY KONA
2
REDOUANE
 6.9
7
THéRENCE
 7.7
17
MATHIS SE
 7.7
6
FREDRIK H
38
BILL ANTO
19
KERIM MRA
9
MYRON VAN
 7.5
28
BOUKE BOE
16
LéO KOKUB
 8.2
23
JOEDRICK
26
VISAR MUS
 7.2
5
SHOGO TAN
60
ROBERT-JA
6
RIHITO YA
8
ABDOULAYE
38
KAITO MAT
 8.2
13
RYOTARO I
 7.7
10
ILIAS SEB
42
KEISUKE G
SUBSTITUTES · KV MECHELEN
12
Hassane Band...
F
4
Gora Diouf
D
39
Massimo Deco...
M
33
Tommy St. Ja...
D
1
Ortwin De Wo...
G
11
Bilal Bafdil...
M
27
Keano Vanraf...
F
14
Benito Raman
F
10
Maxim Kireev
M
COACH: Frederic Vanderbiest
SUBSTITUTES · ST. TRUIDEN
33
Alouis Dirik...
M
22
Wolke Jansse...
D
3
Taiga Hata
D
12
Jo Coppens
G
21
Matt Lendfer...
G
4
Loïc Mbe Soh
D
99
Shion Shinka...
F
18
Simen Jukler...
D
14
Ryan Merlen
M
77
Oumar Diouf
F
COACH: Wouter Vrancken
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
KV · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

ST. · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Lawrence Visser, Belgium
—
KV MANAGER
Frederic Vanderbiest
head coach
ST. MANAGER
Wouter Vrancken
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
1
KV WINS
1
DRAWS
8
ST. WINS
10%
10%
80%
8 – 20
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.80
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
21 Dec 25
St. Truiden
1 – 0
KV Mechelen
L
04 Oct 25
KV Mechelen
1 – 3
St. Truiden
L
21 Feb 25
KV Mechelen
1 – 1
St. Truiden
D
08 Nov 24
St. Truiden
2 – 1
KV Mechelen
L
12 May 24
St. Truiden
2 – 1
KV Mechelen
L
KV MECHELEN LAST 5 OVERALL
L L L L D
ST. TRUIDEN LAST 5 OVERALL
W D W W D
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–4 · result locked
KV MECHELEN #5
Lost · already at 45 pts
Championship round
ST. TRUIDEN #3
Won · already at 57 pts
Championship round
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Union St. Gilloise 35 23 10 2 +38 46
W D W W W
1 Zulte Waregem 34 11 9 14 -2 42
W W W D W
1 Union St. Gilloise 30 19 9 2 +33 66
W D W W W
1 Genk 35 13 12 10 +1 30
D D W D W
2 KVC Westerlo 35 13 9 13 -2 29
L W L W W
2 Club Brugge KV 30 20 3 7 +23 63
W W L W W
2 Cercle Brugge 34 10 11 13 -1 41
W W W D W
2 Club Brugge KV 35 24 3 8 +32 44
W W L W W
3 Antwerp 35 12 8 15 +2 27
W W W L L
3 St. Truiden 30 18 3 9 +12 57
W W D L L
3 RAAL La Louvière 34 6 13 15 -17 31
L L L L D
3 St. Truiden 35 20 4 11 +15 36
W W D L L
4 Anderlecht 35 14 8 13 +1 28
L L W W L
4 Dender 34 4 10 20 -31 22
L L L W L
4 Gent 30 13 6 11 +6 45
L D D L D
4 Standard Liege 35 13 8 14 -7 27
D L W L W
5 Charleroi 35 11 8 16 -4 24
W D L W L
5 KV Mechelen 30 12 9 9 +2 45
L L L L D
5 Gent 35 13 9 13 +2 26
L D D L D
6 KV Mechelen 35 12 10 13 -8 24
L L L L D
6 Anderlecht 30 12 8 10 +4 44
L L W W L
6 OH Leuven 35 9 8 18 -19 18
L L L D L
7 Genk 30 11 9 10 -1 42
D D W D W
8 Standard Liege 30 11 7 12 -8 40
D L W L W
9 KVC Westerlo 30 10 9 11 -4 39
L W L W W
10 Antwerp 30 9 8 13 -1 35
W W W L L
11 Charleroi 30 9 7 14 -4 34
W D L W L
12 OH Leuven 30 9 7 14 -11 34
L L L D L
13 Zulte Waregem 30 8 8 14 -9 32
W W W D W
14 Cercle Brugge 30 7 10 13 -8 31
W W W D W
15 RAAL La Louvière 30 6 13 11 -7 31
L L L L D
16 Dender 30 3 10 17 -27 19
L L L W L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+2
    Card · Yellow Card · Fredrik Hammar
  • 88'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Abdoulaye Sissako
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Kerim Mrabti
  • 84'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Ryotaro Ito
  • 83'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Ilias Sebaoui
  • 76'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Ryotaro Ito
  • 73'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Joedrick Pupe
  • 73'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Bouke Boersma
  • 73'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Thérence Koudou
  • 63'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Ilias Sebaoui
  • 49'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Ryan Merlen
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Kaito Matsuzawa
  • 46'
    Card · Yellow Card · Abdoulaye Sissako
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 1
  • 44'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Joedrick Pupe
  • 26'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Bouke Boersma
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
KV MECHELEN WIN
3.14
31.8% implied
↑ best 3.37
DRAW
3.56
28.1% implied
↑ best 3.72
ST. TRUIDEN WIN
2.13
46.9% implied
↑ best 2.18

Market favors St. Truiden. AI projects KV MECHELEN 42%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS KV MECHELEN 42% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 3.10 3.60 2.15 +9.7%
1xBet 3.26 3.72 2.12 +11.3%
Bet365 3.10 3.50 2.10 +9.7%
Betano 3.15 3.65 2.18 +10.3%
Betfair 3.00 3.40 2.10 +8.7%
BetVictor 3.20 3.60 2.10 +10.8%
Dafabet 3.15 3.65 2.18 +10.3%
Marathonbet 3.18 3.64 2.07 +10.6%
Pinnacle 3.37 3.65 2.16 +12.3%
SBO 2.97 3.25 2.15 +8.3%
Unibet 3.15 3.60 2.14 +10.3%
William Hill 3.10 3.40 2.10 +9.7%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.19 U 4.31
2.5 O 1.67 U 2.18
3.5 O 2.62 U 1.45
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.54 9 bks
NO
2.31 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.44
Away -0.5 1.36
Away -0.75 1.23
Away -1 1.11
Away -1.25 1.10
Away -1.5 1.09
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.