GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · DRAW 48% · Value: BTTS Yes 72%
CONF 61 FULL ANALYSIS →
Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 16 · THU, 23 JUL · 00:30 LOCAL
HOUSTON DYNAMO
2ND · 38 PTS · LAST 5:
L W W W W
FT
1 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 1-0
DC UNITED
L L D D W
· 11TH · 24 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 40' H. Herrera
GOALS
⚽ 78' T. Baribo
H. Herrera
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
H. Herrera
Houston Dynamo · 78 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 57% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
8.0
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

0.99
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.85
63%
BALL POSSESSION %
37%
20
TOTAL SHOTS
7
5
SHOTS ON TARGET
1
91%
PASS ACCURACY %
85%
3
CORNERS
3
KEY EVENTS 19 events
  1. 40'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    H. Herrera
    HOU
  2. 53'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    J. Hopkins · assist M. Peltola
    DC
  3. 59'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    D. McGuire · assist Ezequiel Ponce
    HOU
  4. 61'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Lucas Halter · assist Erik Sviatchenko
    HOU
  5. 67'
    Card · Yellow Card
    S. Hefti
    DC
  6. 68'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    B. Servania · assist J. Stroud
    DC
  7. 68'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    L. Munteanu · assist N. Ordaz
    DC
  8. 68'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Peglow · assist Hosei Kijima
    DC
  9. 70'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Artur
    HOU
  10. 71'
    Card · Yellow Card
    T. Baribo
    DC
  11. 72'
    Card · Yellow Card
    A. Dozzell
    DC
  12. 77'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    L. Ennali · assist F. Negri
    HOU
  13. 78'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    H. Herrera · assist D. Samassékou
    HOU
  14. 78'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    T. Baribo · assist N. Ordaz
    DC
  15. 88'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    M. Bogusz · assist Ondrej Lingr
    HOU
  16. 88'
    Subst · Substitution 6
    Felipe Andrade · assist D. Holmes
    HOU
  17. 88'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    A. Dozzell · assist Nikola Markovic
    DC
  18. 90'+5
    Card · Yellow Card
    J. Stroud
    DC
  19. 90'+7
    Card · Yellow Card
    HOU
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
HOUSTON DYNAMO AVG 7.5
DC UNITED AVG 6.9
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.0
xG
0.9
20.0
TOTAL SHOTS
7.0
5.0
ON TARGET
1.0
8.0
OFF TARGET
3.0
7.0
BLOCKED
3.0
POSSESSION
63.0%
POSSESSION %
37.0%
528.0
PASSES
304.0
91.0%
PASS ACCURACY
85.0%
SET PIECES
3.0
CORNERS
3.0
2.0
OFFSIDES
1.0
DISCIPLINE
8.0
FOULS
15.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
4.0
0.0
GK SAVES
4.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
HOUSTON DYNAMO 4 shots
H. Herrera
1/2
Jack McGlynn
0/1
Guilherme
1/1
DC UNITED 3 shots
T. Baribo
1/1
J. Hopkins
0/1
M. Peltola
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 0.99 – 0.85
0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.0 0.0 HT 40' 78' H 0.99 A 0.85 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 47%
53% A
9
EVENTS LOGGED
10
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-1-4-1 vs 4-4-2
4-1-4-1
4-4-2
31
J. BOND
11
L. ENNALI
 7.2
34
A. RESCH
5
LUCAS HAL
36
FELIPE AN
 7.5
6
ARTUR
 7.0
20
GUILHERME
 8.0
16
H. HERRER
 7.7
8
JACK MCGL
19
M. BOGUSZ
23
D. MCGUIR
 6.9
1
S. JOHNSO
6
K. KUROKA
13
S. NEALIS
 7.0
3
L. BARTLE
5
S. HEFTI
7
PEGLOW
23
B. SERVAN
21
A. DOZZEL
 6.9
25
J. HOPKIN
11
L. MUNTEA
 7.0
9
T. BARIBO
SUBSTITUTES · HOUSTON DYNAMO
24
A. Ibrahim
F
9
Ondrej Lingr
M
18
D. Samasséko...
M
30
A. Bouzat
M
14
D. Holmes
M
28
Erik Sviatch...
D
21
F. Negri
D
26
B. Gillingha...
G
10
Ezequiel Pon...
F
COACH: Ben Olsen
SUBSTITUTES · DC UNITED
22
N. Ordaz
F
32
O. Avilez
F
4
M. Peltola
D
8
J. Stroud
M
77
Hosei Kijima
M
27
Nikola Marko...
D
20
Grant Leveil...
G
26
A. Bono
G
17
Jacob Murrel...
F
COACH: Rene Weiler
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
HOU · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

DC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
V. Rivas
—
HOU MANAGER
Ben Olsen
head coach
DC MANAGER
Rene Weiler
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
4
HOU WINS
3
DRAWS
3
DC WINS
40%
30%
30%
15 – 14
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.90
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
22 Jun 2024
DC United
1 – 4
Houston Dynamo
W
07 May 2022
DC United
2 – 0
Houston Dynamo
L
19 May 2019
Houston Dynamo
2 – 1
DC United
W
17 Mar 2018
DC United
2 – 2
Houston Dynamo
D
22 Jul 2017
DC United
1 – 3
Houston Dynamo
W
HOUSTON DYNAMO LAST 5 OVERALL
L W W W W
DC UNITED LAST 5 OVERALL
L L D D W
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–1 · result locked
HOUSTON DYNAMO #2
Lost · already at 38 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
DC UNITED #11
Lost · already at 24 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 20 12 4 4 +27 40
W L W D D
1 Nashville SC 21 15 4 2 +26 49
W W W D L
2 Houston Dynamo 21 12 2 7 +4 38
L W W W W
2 Inter Miami 21 11 6 4 +9 39
L D L D W
3 Los Angeles FC 22 10 5 7 +14 35
D L L D W
3 Chicago Fire 20 11 3 6 +11 36
D W W W L
4 New England Revolution 21 10 4 7 +7 34
D W L L D
4 San Jose Earthquakes 21 10 3 8 +6 33
L L L L D
5 FC Dallas 21 9 6 6 +4 33
L W W D L
5 Charlotte 21 9 5 7 +6 32
W D W L W
6 St. Louis City 21 9 6 6 +3 33
W D W D W
6 FC Cincinnati 21 8 7 6 +2 31
D W D W L
7 Colorado Rapids 21 9 1 11 +2 28
L W W W L
7 New York City FC 21 7 6 8 +5 27
D L L D W
8 New York Red Bulls 21 7 5 9 -12 26
D L L W L
8 Real Salt Lake 20 8 4 8 +2 28
L L D D L
9 Portland Timbers 21 8 4 9 +1 28
D W L W W
9 Orlando City SC 21 7 3 11 -17 24
W L D L W
10 Minnesota United FC 21 7 7 7 -2 28
W L D D D
10 Toronto FC 21 5 9 7 -6 24
W D W D L
11 San Diego 21 7 6 8 +5 27
W L W D W
11 DC United 21 5 9 7 -8 24
L L D D W
12 Philadelphia Union 21 5 6 10 -7 21
D D W W W
12 Los Angeles Galaxy 22 6 8 8 -5 26
D W L D D
13 Seattle Sounders 20 7 4 9 -5 25
D L L L L
13 CF Montreal 21 5 6 10 -10 21
D W D D L
14 Austin 21 5 6 10 -14 21
D W L L L
14 Columbus Crew 21 5 5 11 -6 20
L L L D W
15 Sporting Kansas City 20 4 3 13 -30 15
D L L L W
15 Atlanta United FC 20 5 3 12 -12 18
W W L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+7
    Card · Yellow Card
  • 90'+5
    Card · Yellow Card · J. Stroud
  • 88'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · A. Dozzell
  • 88'
    Subst · Substitution 6 · Felipe Andrade
  • 88'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · M. Bogusz
  • 78'
    Goal · Normal Goal · T. Baribo
  • 78'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · H. Herrera
  • 77'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · L. Ennali
  • 72'
    Card · Yellow Card · A. Dozzell
  • 71'
    Card · Yellow Card · T. Baribo
  • 70'
    Card · Yellow Card · Artur
  • 68'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Peglow
  • 68'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · L. Munteanu
  • 68'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · B. Servania
  • 67'
    Card · Yellow Card · S. Hefti
  • 61'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Lucas Halter
  • 59'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · D. McGuire
  • 53'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · J. Hopkins
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 0
  • 40'
    Goal · Normal Goal · H. Herrera
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
HOUSTON DYNAMO WIN
1.78
56.2% implied
↑ best 1.81
DRAW
3.75
26.7% implied
↑ best 3.87
DC UNITED WIN
4.30
23.3% implied
↑ best 4.50

Market favors Houston Dynamo. AI projects DRAW 48% · value bet BTTS Yes.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS DRAW 48% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.81 3.80 4.00 +21.7%
Bet365 1.75 3.80 4.50 +21.7%
Betano 1.78 3.80 4.45 +21.7%
Betfair 1.75 3.80 4.40 +21.7%
BetVictor 1.75 3.80 4.20 +21.7%
Dafabet 1.79 3.85 4.50 +22.0%
Marathonbet 1.77 3.70 4.25 +21.0%
Pinnacle 1.81 3.87 4.46 +22.2%
SBO 1.77 3.57 4.16 +20.0%
Superbet 1.80 3.80 4.30 +21.7%
Unibet 1.77 3.70 4.35 +21.0%
William Hill 1.75 3.50 4.00 +19.4%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.22 U 4.07
2.5 O 1.74 U 2.07
3.5 O 2.82 U 1.41
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.67 9 bks
NO
2.09 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.40
Away -0.5 2.03
Away -0.75 1.81
Away -1 1.58
Away -1.25 1.44
Away -1.5 1.36
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.