GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 3–5 · ENGLAND 80% · Value: Over 2.5 98%
CONF 88 FULL ANALYSIS →
World Cup · 3RD PLACE FINAL · SAT, 18 JUL · 21:00 LOCAL
FRANCE
1ST · 9 PTS · LAST 5:
L W W W W
FT
4 – 6
FULL TIME HT · 0-4
ENGLAND
L W W W W
· 1ST · 7 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 48' Kylian Mbappé ⚽ 54' Bradley Barcola ⚽ 66' Kylian Mbappé ⚽ 90+6' Ousmane Dembélé
GOALS
⚽ 3' Declan Rice ⚽ 18' Ezri Konsa ⚽ 37' Bukayo Saka ⚽ 45+1' Bukayo Saka ⚽ 87' Bukayo Saka (P) ⚽ 90+8' Jude Bellingham
Kylian Mbappé
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Kylian Mbappé
France · Captain · 98 mins
⚽ 2 goals · 🅰 1 assist · 27% pass acc · 4 shots on
RATING
9.9
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

2.87
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
2.58
46%
BALL POSSESSION %
54%
19
TOTAL SHOTS
19
9
SHOTS ON TARGET
11
91%
PASS ACCURACY %
91%
3
CORNERS
4
KEY EVENTS 20 events
  1. 3'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Declan Rice
    ENG
  2. 18'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Ezri Konsa · assist Declan Rice
    ENG
  3. 37'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Bukayo Saka · assist M. Rashford
    ENG
  4. 45'+1
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Bukayo Saka · assist Eberechi Eze
    ENG
  5. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Rayan Cherki · assist Ousmane Dembélé
    FRA
  6. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Désiré Doué · assist Bradley Barcola
    FRA
  7. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Theo Hernández · assist Lucas Digne
    FRA
  8. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Ibrahima Konaté · assist Dayot Upamecano
    FRA
  9. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    M. Rashford · assist O. Watkins
    ENG
  10. 48'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Kylian Mbappé · assist Michael Olise
    FRA
  11. 54'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Bradley Barcola · assist Kylian Mbappé
    FRA
  12. 66'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Kylian Mbappé · assist Michael Olise
    FRA
  13. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Ivan Toney · assist Elliot Anderson
    ENG
  14. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Eberechi Eze · assist Jude Bellingham
    ENG
  15. 83'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Jarell Quansah · assist Reece James
    ENG
  16. 87'
    Goal · Penalty
    Bukayo Saka
    ENG
  17. 90'+1
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Malo Gusto · assist Jules Koundé
    FRA
  18. 90'+3
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Marc Guéhi · assist Trevoh Chalobah
    ENG
  19. 90'+6
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Ousmane Dembélé · assist Dayot Upamecano
    FRA
  20. 90'+8
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Jude Bellingham
    ENG
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
FRANCE AVG 8.2
ENGLAND AVG 8.1
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
2.9
xG
2.6
19.0
TOTAL SHOTS
19.0
9.0
ON TARGET
11.0
6.0
OFF TARGET
2.0
4.0
BLOCKED
6.0
POSSESSION
46.0%
POSSESSION %
54.0%
442.0
PASSES
515.0
91.0%
PASS ACCURACY
91.0%
SET PIECES
3.0
CORNERS
4.0
3.0
OFFSIDES
3.0
DISCIPLINE
14.0
FOULS
8.0
4.0
GK SAVES
5.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
FRANCE 12 shots
Kylian Mbappé
4/6
Michael Olise
0/3
Ousmane Dembélé
2/2
Bradley Barcola
1/1
ENGLAND 9 shots
Bukayo Saka
4/4
Jude Bellingham
2/2
Declan Rice
1/1
Eberechi Eze
0/1
Ezri Konsa
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 2.87 – 2.58
2.3 1.7 1.1 0.6 2.9 0.0 HT 48' 54' 66' 90' 3' 18' 37' 45' 87' 90' H 2.87 A 2.58 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 45%
55% A
9
EVENTS LOGGED
11
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-1-4-1
4-2-3-1
4-1-4-1
16
MIKE MAIG
19
THEO HERN
 7.5
26
MAXENCE L
15
IBRAHIMA
2
MALO GUST
14
ADRIEN RA
18
WARREN ZA
20
DéSIRé DO
24
RAYAN CHE
 7.0
11
MICHAEL O
 9.9
10
KYLIAN MB
13
DEAN HEND
25
DJED SPEN
6
MARC GUéH
 7.3
2
EZRI KONS
26
JARELL QU
 9.3
4
DECLAN RI
11
M. RASHFO
 7.3
21
EBERECHI
17
MORGAN RO
 9.3
7
BUKAYO SA
22
IVAN TONE
SUBSTITUTES · FRANCE
17
William Sali...
D
8
Aurélien Tch...
M
25
Maghnes Akli...
M
6
Manu Koné
M
13
N'Golo Kanté
M
22
Jean-Philipp...
F
21
Lucas Hernán...
D
5
Jules Koundé
D
1
Brice Samba
G
23
Robin Risser
G
12
Bradley Barc...
F
7
Ousmane Demb...
F
3
Lucas Digne
D
4
Dayot Upamec...
D
9
Marcus Thura...
F
COACH: Didier Deschamps
SUBSTITUTES · ENGLAND
8
Elliot Ander...
M
10
Jude Belling...
M
14
Jordan Hende...
M
18
Anthony Gord...
F
9
Harry Kane
F
3
Nico O'Reill...
D
12
Trevoh Chalo...
D
24
Reece James
D
5
J. Stones
D
15
Dan Burn
D
1
J. Pickford
G
23
James Traffo...
G
19
O. Watkins
F
20
Noni Madueke
F
COACH: Thomas Tuchel
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
FRA · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

ENG · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Jesús Valenzuela, Venezuela
—
FRA MANAGER
Didier Deschamps
head coach
ENG MANAGER
Thomas Tuchel
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
2
FRA WINS
1
DRAWS
0
ENG WINS
66.7%
33.3%
6 – 4
TOTAL GOALS · 3 MEETINGS
3.33
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 2 / 3
10 Dec 2022
England
1 – 2
France
W
13 Jun 2017
France
3 – 2
England
W
FRANCE LAST 5 OVERALL
L W W W W
ENGLAND LAST 5 OVERALL
L W W W W
MATCH IMPACT Final 4–6 · result locked
FRANCE #1
Lost · already at 9 pts
Round of 32
ENGLAND #1
Won · already at 7 pts
Round of 32
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Mexico 3 3 0 0 +6 9
L W W W W
1 Congo DR 3 1 1 1 +1 4
L W L D
1 England 3 2 1 0 +4 7
W L W W W
1 Colombia 3 2 1 0 +3 7
L W D W W
1 Argentina 3 3 0 0 +7 9
L W W W W
1 France 3 3 0 0 +8 9
L L W W W
1 Spain 3 2 1 0 +5 7
W W W W W
1 Belgium 3 1 2 0 +4 5
L W W W D
1 Netherlands 3 2 1 0 +6 7
L W W D
1 Germany 3 2 0 1 +6 6
L L W W
1 USA 3 2 0 1 +4 6
L W L W W
1 Brazil 3 2 1 0 +6 7
L W W W D
1 Switzerland 3 2 1 0 +4 7
L W W W W
2 Norway 3 2 0 1 +1 6
L W W L W
2 Austria 3 1 1 1 0 4
L D L W
2 Portugal 3 1 2 0 +5 5
L W D W D
2 Croatia 3 2 0 1 0 6
L W W L
2 Sweden 3 1 1 1 0 4
L D L W
2 Cape Verde Islands 3 0 3 0 0 3
L D D D
2 Egypt 3 1 2 0 +2 5
L W D W D
2 Japan 3 1 2 0 +4 5
L D W D
2 Ivory Coast 3 2 0 1 +2 6
L W L W
2 Australia 3 1 1 1 0 4
L D L W
2 Morocco 3 2 1 0 +3 7
L W W W W
2 Canada 3 1 1 1 +5 4
L W L W D
2 South Africa 3 1 1 1 -1 4
L W D L
3 Senegal 3 1 0 2 +2 3
L W L L
3 Algeria 3 1 1 1 -2 4
L D W L
3 Congo DR 3 1 1 1 +1 4
L W L D
3 Ghana 3 1 1 1 0 4
L L D W
3 Ghana 3 1 1 1 0 4
L L D W
3 Uruguay 3 0 2 1 -1 2
L D D
3 Iran 3 0 3 0 0 3
D D D
3 Sweden 3 1 1 1 0 4
L D L W
3 Ecuador 3 1 1 1 0 4
L W D L
3 Paraguay 3 1 1 1 -2 4
L W D W L
3 Scotland 3 1 0 2 -3 3
L L W
3 Bosnia & Herzegovina 3 1 1 1 -1 4
L W L D
3 South Korea 3 1 0 2 -1 3
L L W
4 Iraq 3 0 0 3 -11 0
L L L
4 Jordan 3 0 0 3 -5 0
L L L
4 Uzbekistan 3 0 0 3 -9 0
L L L
4 Panama 3 0 0 3 -4 0
L L L
4 Ecuador 3 1 1 1 0 4
L W D L
4 Saudi Arabia 3 0 2 1 -4 2
D L D
4 New Zealand 3 0 1 2 -6 1
L L D
4 Tunisia 3 0 0 3 -10 0
L L L
4 Czech Republic 3 0 1 2 -4 1
L D L
4 Qatar 3 0 1 2 -8 1
L L D
4 Haiti 3 0 0 3 -6 0
L L L
4 Türkiye 3 1 0 2 -2 3
W L L
4 Curaçao 3 0 1 2 -8 1
L D L
5 Bosnia & Herzegovina 3 1 1 1 -1 4
L W L D
5 New Zealand 1 0 1 0 0 1
D
6 Spain 1 0 1 0 0 1
D
6 Algeria 3 1 1 1 -2 4
L D W L
7 Croatia 2 1 0 1 -1 3
W L
7 Portugal 1 0 1 0 0 1
W D
7 Paraguay 3 1 1 1 -2 4
L W D W L
8 Senegal 3 1 0 2 +2 3
L W L L
9 Czech Republic 2 0 1 1 -1 1
D L
9 Saudi Arabia 2 0 1 1 -4 1
L D
9 Iran 3 0 3 0 0 3
D D D
10 South Korea 3 1 0 2 -1 3
L L W
10 Cape Verde Islands 2 0 2 0 0 2
D D
10 Belgium 2 0 2 0 0 2
D D
11 Scotland 3 1 0 2 -3 3
L L W
11 Panama 1 0 0 1 -1 0
L
11 Jordan 1 0 0 1 -2 0
L
12 Uruguay 3 0 2 1 -1 2
L D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+8
    Goal · Normal Goal · Jude Bellingham
  • 90'+6
    Goal · Normal Goal · Ousmane Dembélé
  • 90'+3
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Marc Guéhi
  • 90'+1
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Malo Gusto
  • 87'
    Goal · Penalty · Bukayo Saka
  • 83'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Jarell Quansah
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Eberechi Eze
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Ivan Toney
  • 66'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Kylian Mbappé
  • 54'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Bradley Barcola
  • 48'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Kylian Mbappé
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · M. Rashford
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Ibrahima Konaté
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Theo Hernández
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Désiré Doué
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Rayan Cherki
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 4
  • 45'+1
    Goal · Normal Goal · Bukayo Saka
  • 37'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Bukayo Saka
  • 18'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Ezri Konsa
  • 3'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Declan Rice
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
FRANCE WIN
1.81
55.2% implied
↑ best 1.99
DRAW
4.06
24.6% implied
↑ best 4.28
ENGLAND WIN
4.05
24.7% implied
↑ best 4.46

Market favors France. AI projects ENGLAND 80% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS ENGLAND 80% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.81 3.95 3.75 +53.3%
1xBet 1.80 4.28 4.44 +57.5%
Bet365 1.75 4.20 4.10 +55.6%
Betano 1.88 4.10 4.00 +55.0%
Betfair 1.75 4.20 4.20 +56.2%
BetVictor 1.70 4.20 4.20 +56.2%
Dafabet 1.99 3.80 3.65 +52.6%
Marathonbet 1.74 4.15 4.30 +56.7%
Pinnacle 1.78 4.13 4.46 +57.6%
SBO 1.90 3.92 3.71 +53.0%
Superbet 1.92 3.85 3.75 +53.3%
Unibet 1.76 4.10 4.10 +55.6%
William Hill 1.80 3.90 4.00 +55.0%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.11 U 5.73
2.5 O 1.43 U 2.72
3.5 O 2.12 U 1.73
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.44 10 bks
NO
2.66 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.40
Away -0.5 2.04
Away -0.75 1.84
Away -1 1.62
Away -1.25 1.50
Away -1.5 1.41
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.