GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 2–0 · SPORTING CP 58% · Value: Over 2.5 62%
CONF 52 FULL ANALYSIS →
Primeira Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 2 · FRI, 14 AUG · 19:15 LOCAL
SPORTING CP
2ND · 82 PTS · LAST 5:
D W W W D
FT
3 – 2
FULL TIME HT · 3-0
GUIMARAES
L L L L W
· 9TH · 42 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 9' Flávio Gonçalves ⚽ 22' F. Ioannidis ⚽ 41' Sergi Altimira
GOALS
⚽ 66' Samu ⚽ 69' Alioune Ndoye
F. Ioannidis
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
F. Ioannidis
Sporting CP · 75 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 🅰 2 assists · 8% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
8.5
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.12
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.21
56%
BALL POSSESSION %
44%
5
TOTAL SHOTS
12
3
SHOTS ON TARGET
3
88%
PASS ACCURACY %
84%
5
CORNERS
1
KEY EVENTS 22 events
  1. 9'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Flávio Gonçalves · assist F. Ioannidis
    SPO
  2. 22'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    F. Ioannidis · assist Geny Catamo
    SPO
  3. 24'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Sergi Altimira
    SPO
  4. 26'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Thiago Balieiro
    GUI
  5. 38'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Óscar Rivas
    GUI
  6. 41'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Sergi Altimira · assist F. Ioannidis
    SPO
  7. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Oumar Camara · assist Miguel Nogueira
    GUI
  8. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Miguel Maga · assist Tony Strata
    GUI
  9. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Beni Mukendi · assist Lohann Doucet
    GUI
  10. 55'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Geny Catamo
    SPO
  11. 64'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Miguel Nogueira
    GUI
  12. 66'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Samu · assist Miguel Nogueira
    GUI
  13. 67'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Flávio Gonçalves · assist Luis Javier Suárez
    SPO
  14. 67'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Geny Catamo · assist Luís Guilherme
    SPO
  15. 69'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Alioune Ndoye · assist Tony Strata
    GUI
  16. 71'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Eduardo Quaresma
    SPO
  17. 76'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    F. Ioannidis · assist Jesse Derry
    SPO
  18. 77'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Gonçalo Nogueira · assist Santi Verdi
    GUI
  19. 78'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Gustavo Silva
    GUI
  20. 84'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Giorgos Vagiannidis · assist Iván Fresneda
    SPO
  21. 88'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Samu · assist Patrick Ouotro
    GUI
  22. 90'+1
    Card · Yellow Card
    Gonçalo Inácio
    SPO
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
SPORTING CP AVG 7.7
GUIMARAES AVG 7.2
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.1
xG
1.2
5.0
TOTAL SHOTS
12.0
3.0
ON TARGET
3.0
0.0
OFF TARGET
7.0
2.0
BLOCKED
2.0
POSSESSION
56.0%
POSSESSION %
44.0%
507.0
PASSES
390.0
88.0%
PASS ACCURACY
84.0%
SET PIECES
5.0
CORNERS
1.0
2.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
11.0
FOULS
21.0
4.0
YELLOW CARDS
4.0
1.0
GK SAVES
0.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
SPORTING CP 3 shots
F. Ioannidis
1/1
Sergi Altimira
1/1
Flávio Gonçalves
1/1
GUIMARAES 10 shots
Samu
2/5
Alioune Ndoye
1/3
Gustavo Silva
0/2
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.12 – 1.21
1 0.7 0.5 0.2 1.2 0.0 HT 9' 22' 41' 66' 69' H 1.12 A 1.21 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 50%
50% A
11
EVENTS LOGGED
11
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
1
RUI SILVA
20
MAXIMILIA
25
GONçALO I
72
EDUARDO Q
13
GIORGOS V
 7.0
77
ISSA DOUM
 8.2
5
SERGI ALT
 7.3
58
FLáVIO GO
17
RODRIGO Z
 7.3
10
GENY CATA
 8.5
7
F. IOANNI
48
OLIWIER Z
13
JOãO MEND
28
THIAGO BA
4
ÓSCAR RIV
2
MIGUEL MA
16
BENI MUKE
 6.7
8
GONçALO N
 6.7
11
GUSTAVO S
 8.0
20
SAMU
7
OUMAR CAM
 6.9
24
ALIOUNE N
SUBSTITUTES · SPORTING CP
73
Eduardo Feli...
M
28
Jesse Derry
F
4
Silas Anders...
M
9
Rafael Ferre...
F
21
Pedro Lima
M
31
Luís Guilher...
F
6
Zeno Debast
D
55
Ibrahima Ba
D
50
Rodrigo Dias
D
22
Iván Fresned...
D
12
João Virgíni...
G
97
Luis Javier...
F
COACH: Rui Borges
SUBSTITUTES · GUIMARAES
5
Franck Ahmed...
D
18
Telmo Arcanj...
M
56
Santi Verdi
M
6
Matija Mitro...
M
82
Francisco Di...
D
22
Juan Castill...
G
98
Lucas Furtad...
G
17
Miguel Nogue...
M
44
Lohann Douce...
M
23
Tony Strata
D
29
Patrick Ouot...
F
COACH: Tiago Margarido
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
SPO · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

GUI · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
David Rafael Oliveira da Silva, Portugal
—
SPO MANAGER
Rui Borges
head coach
GUI MANAGER
Tiago Margarido
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
7
SPO WINS
1
DRAWS
2
GUI WINS
70%
10%
20%
29 – 12
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
4.10
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
04 May 2026
Sporting CP
5 – 1
Guimaraes
W
23 Dec 2025
Guimaraes
1 – 4
Sporting CP
W
17 May 2025
Sporting CP
2 – 0
Guimaraes
W
03 Jan 2025
Guimaraes
4 – 4
Sporting CP
D
21 Apr 2024
Sporting CP
3 – 0
Guimaraes
W
SPORTING CP LAST 5 OVERALL
D W W W D
GUIMARAES LAST 5 OVERALL
L L L L W
MATCH IMPACT Final 3–2 · result locked
SPORTING CP #2
Won · already at 82 pts
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
GUIMARAES #9
Lost · already at 42 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 FC Porto 34 28 4 2 +48 88
W L W W W
2 Sporting CP 34 25 7 2 +65 82
W W W D D
3 Benfica 34 23 11 0 +49 80
W D D W W
4 SC Braga 34 16 11 7 +28 59
D D D L W
5 Famalicao 34 15 11 8 +13 56
W D D W D
6 GIL Vicente 34 13 11 10 +9 50
L L D W L
7 Moreirense 34 12 7 15 -12 43
D L W L W
8 Arouca 34 12 6 16 -17 42
W W D L W
9 Guimaraes 34 12 6 16 -12 42
L L L W W
10 Estoril 34 10 9 15 -3 39
L D D L L
11 Alverca 34 10 9 15 -17 39
L D L W L
12 Rio Ave 34 8 12 14 -22 36
D L D L D
13 Santa Clara 34 9 9 16 -9 36
L W D W D
14 Nacional 34 9 7 18 -8 34
W L L W W
15 Estrela 34 6 12 16 -18 30
D D L L L
16 Casa Pia 34 6 12 16 -26 30
D W L L L
17 Tondela 34 6 10 18 -28 28
L W W D L
18 AVS 34 3 12 19 -40 21
D W W D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+1
    Card · Yellow Card · Gonçalo Inácio
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 88'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Samu
  • 84'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Giorgos Vagiannidis
  • 78'
    Card · Yellow Card · Gustavo Silva
    Roughing
  • 77'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Gonçalo Nogueira
  • 76'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · F. Ioannidis
  • 71'
    Card · Yellow Card · Eduardo Quaresma
    Roughing
  • 69'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Alioune Ndoye
  • 67'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Geny Catamo
  • 67'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Flávio Gonçalves
  • 66'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Samu
  • 64'
    Card · Yellow Card · Miguel Nogueira
    Holding
  • 55'
    Card · Yellow Card · Geny Catamo
    Roughing
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Beni Mukendi
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Miguel Maga
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Oumar Camara
  • HALF TIME · 3 – 0
  • 41'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Sergi Altimira
  • 38'
    Card · Yellow Card · Óscar Rivas
    Roughing
  • 26'
    Card · Yellow Card · Thiago Balieiro
    Roughing
  • 24'
    Card · Yellow Card · Sergi Altimira
    Tripping
  • 22'
    Goal · Normal Goal · F. Ioannidis
  • 9'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Flávio Gonçalves
14 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 14 BOOKMAKERS
SPORTING CP WIN
1.32
75.8% implied
↑ best 1.45
DRAW
5.29
18.9% implied
↑ best 6.30
GUIMARAES WIN
8.40
11.9% implied
↑ best 9.80

Market favors Sporting CP. AI projects SPORTING CP 58% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS SPORTING CP 58% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.32 5.20 8.60 +8.8%
1xBet 1.33 5.86 9.20 +10.9%
888Sport 1.33 5.00 7.50 +8.0%
Bet365 1.36 5.00 7.50 +8.0%
Betano 1.45 4.90 7.70 +7.6%
Betfair 1.30 5.00 9.50 +8.0%
BetVictor 1.33 4.75 7.50 +6.9%
Dafabet 1.35 5.60 8.40 +10.1%
Marathonbet 1.33 5.20 7.70 +8.8%
Pinnacle 1.33 5.63 9.17 +10.2%
SBO 1.22 5.42 8.49 +9.5%
Superbet 1.25 6.30 9.80 +12.1%
Unibet 1.30 5.25 9.00 +9.0%
William Hill 1.33 5.00 7.50 +8.0%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.16 U 4.88
2.5 O 1.55 U 2.39
3.5 O 2.39 U 1.55
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.84 11 bks
NO
1.87 11 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 4.02
Away -0.5 3.34
Away -0.75 2.80
Away -1 2.47
Away -1.25 2.03
Away -1.5 1.85
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.