GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 2–0 · ATLETICO MADRID 58% · Value: Over 2.5 62%
CONF 38 FULL ANALYSIS →
La Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 1 · WED, 19 AUG · 19:00 LOCAL
ATLETICO MADRID
4TH · 69 PTS · LAST 5:
L W W L L
FT
2 – 0
FULL TIME HT · 0-0
MALAGA
L L L L L
· LAST 5
⚽ 70' Kang-in Lee ⚽ 85' Alex Baena
GOALS
Dávid Hancko
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Dávid Hancko
Atletico Madrid · 91 mins
🅰 1 assist · 91% pass acc
RATING
8.3
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

0.82
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.17
53%
BALL POSSESSION %
47%
15
TOTAL SHOTS
5
6
SHOTS ON TARGET
1
88%
PASS ACCURACY %
85%
6
CORNERS
1
KEY EVENTS 17 events
  1. 15'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Dávid Hancko
    ATL
  2. 37'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Jorge Domínguez
    ATL
  3. 45'+4
    Card · Yellow Card
    Carlos Puga
    MAL
  4. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Jorge Domínguez · assist Marcos Llorente
    ATL
  5. 57'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Arnau Ortiz · assist Alex Baena
    ATL
  6. 57'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Carlos Martín · assist Kang-in Lee
    ATL
  7. 57'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Rodrigo Mendoza · assist Giuliano Simeone
    ATL
  8. 67'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Carlos Dotor · assist Rafa Rodriguez
    MAL
  9. 67'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Joaquín Muñoz · assist Juan Cruz
    MAL
  10. 70'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Kang-in Lee · assist Dávid Hancko
    ATL
  11. 72'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Carlos Puga · assist Jose Salinas
    MAL
  12. 78'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Koke · assist Morten Hjulmand
    ATL
  13. 80'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Juan Cruz
    MAL
  14. 81'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Einar Galilea · assist Ramón Enríquez
    MAL
  15. 81'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Dani Lorenzo · assist Eneko Jauregi
    MAL
  16. 85'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Alex Baena
    ATL
  17. 88'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Ramón Enríquez
    MAL
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
ATLETICO MADRID AVG 7.8
MALAGA AVG 7.2
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
0.8
xG
0.2
15.0
TOTAL SHOTS
5.0
6.0
ON TARGET
1.0
5.0
OFF TARGET
2.0
4.0
BLOCKED
2.0
POSSESSION
53.0%
POSSESSION %
47.0%
497.0
PASSES
454.0
88.0%
PASS ACCURACY
85.0%
SET PIECES
6.0
CORNERS
1.0
2.0
OFFSIDES
2.0
DISCIPLINE
16.0
FOULS
10.0
2.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
1.0
GK SAVES
4.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
ATLETICO MADRID 5 shots
Dávid Hancko
0/2
Kang-in Lee
1/2
Alex Baena
1/1
MALAGA 0 shots

No shots recorded.

📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 0.82 – 0.17
0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.0 HT 70' 85' H 0.82 A 0.17 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 53%
47% A
9
EVENTS LOGGED
8
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-1-4-1 vs 4-1-4-1
4-1-4-1
4-1-4-1
13
JAN OBLAK
30
DANI MART
 8.3
17
DáVID HAN
24
ROBIN LE
27
JORGE DOM
 7.2
6
KOKE
16
ARNAU ORT
 7.5
8
PABLO BAR
4
RODRIGO M
12
CARLOS MA
11
ADEMOLA L
 7.9
1
ALFONSO H
31
RAFA GARR
 6.9
4
EINAR GAL
15
ÁNGEL REC
3
CARLOS PU
 6.7
23
IZAN MERI
11
JOAQUíN M
 6.9
22
DANI LORE
 7.5
8
CARLOS DO
10
DAVID LAR
9
CHUPETE
SUBSTITUTES · ATLETICO MADRID
22
Alejandro Gr...
D
23
Morten Hjulm...
M
5
Johnny Cardo...
M
46
Jorge Castil...
M
2
José María G...
D
18
Marc Pubill
D
1
Juan Musso
G
20
Giuliano Sim...
F
7
Kang-in Lee
M
10
Alex Baena
M
14
Marcos Llore...
M
29
Miguel Cubo
F
COACH: Diego Simeone
SUBSTITUTES · MALAGA
19
Juan Cruz
M
32
Juan Fernand...
F
24
Julen Lobete
F
7
Haitam Abaid...
F
6
Ramón Enríqu...
M
28
Joseph Otune...
M
14
Rafa Rodrigu...
M
5
Álex Pastor
D
12
Jose Salinas
D
13
Carlos Lopez
G
17
Eneko Jaureg...
F
COACH: Juan Funes
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
ATL · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

MAL · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain
—
ATL MANAGER
Diego Simeone
head coach
MAL MANAGER
Juan Funes
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
7
ATL WINS
2
DRAWS
1
MAL WINS
70%
20%
10%
16 – 7
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.30
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
10 Feb 2018
Malaga
0 – 1
Atletico Madrid
W
16 Sep 2017
Atletico Madrid
1 – 0
Malaga
W
01 Apr 2017
Malaga
0 – 2
Atletico Madrid
W
29 Oct 2016
Atletico Madrid
4 – 2
Malaga
W
23 Apr 2016
Atletico Madrid
1 – 0
Malaga
W
ATLETICO MADRID LAST 5 OVERALL
L W W L L
MALAGA LAST 5 OVERALL
L L L L L
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Barcelona 38 31 1 6 +59 94
L W L W W
2 Real Madrid 38 27 5 6 +42 86
W W W L W
3 Villarreal 38 22 6 10 +26 72
W L L D W
4 Atletico Madrid 38 21 6 11 +18 69
L W W L W
5 Real Betis 38 15 15 8 +11 60
W L W D W
6 Celta Vigo 38 14 12 12 +5 54
W D L W W
7 Getafe 38 15 6 17 -6 51
W L W D L
8 Rayo Vallecano 38 12 14 12 -3 50
W W D D W
9 Valencia 38 13 10 15 -9 49
W W D W L
10 Real Sociedad 38 11 13 14 -2 46
D L D D L
11 Espanyol 38 12 10 16 -12 46
D W W L L
12 Athletic Club 38 13 6 19 -15 45
L D L L W
13 Sevilla 38 12 7 19 -14 43
L L W W W
14 Alaves 38 11 10 17 -12 43
L W W D L
15 Elche 38 10 13 15 -8 43
D W L D L
16 Levante 38 11 9 18 -14 42
L W W W L
17 Osasuna 38 11 9 18 -6 42
L L L L L
18 Mallorca 38 11 9 18 -10 42
W L L D W
19 Girona 38 9 14 15 -16 41
D L D D L
20 Oviedo 38 6 11 21 -34 29
L L L D L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 88'
    Card · Yellow Card · Ramón Enríquez
    Tripping
  • 85'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Alex Baena
  • 81'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Dani Lorenzo
  • 81'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Einar Galilea
  • 80'
    Card · Yellow Card · Juan Cruz
    Tripping
  • 78'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Koke
  • 72'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Carlos Puga
  • 70'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Kang-in Lee
  • 67'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Joaquín Muñoz
  • 67'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Carlos Dotor
  • 57'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Rodrigo Mendoza
  • 57'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Carlos Martín
  • 57'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Arnau Ortiz
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Jorge Domínguez
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 0
  • 45'+4
    Card · Yellow Card · Carlos Puga
    Tripping
  • 37'
    Card · Yellow Card · Jorge Domínguez
    Holding
  • 15'
    Card · Yellow Card · Dávid Hancko
    Tripping
14 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 14 BOOKMAKERS
ATLETICO MADRID WIN
1.35
74.1% implied
↑ best 1.40
DRAW
5.15
19.4% implied
↑ best 5.45
MALAGA WIN
8.51
11.8% implied
↑ best 9.50

Market favors Atletico Madrid. AI projects ATLETICO MADRID 58% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS ATLETICO MADRID 58% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.35 5.20 7.50 +8.8%
1xBet 1.39 5.28 9.25 +9.1%
888Sport 1.33 4.80 8.50 +7.2%
Bet365 1.36 5.00 8.50 +8.0%
Betano 1.40 5.30 8.00 +9.1%
Betfair 1.30 5.00 9.00 +8.0%
BetVictor 1.33 5.25 8.50 +9.0%
Dafabet 1.36 5.40 8.60 +9.5%
Marathonbet 1.39 5.05 8.70 +8.2%
Pinnacle 1.36 5.26 8.99 +9.0%
SBO 1.34 5.03 7.53 +8.1%
Superbet 1.36 5.45 8.10 +9.7%
Unibet 1.32 5.30 9.50 +9.1%
William Hill 1.33 4.80 8.50 +7.2%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.18 U 4.71
2.5 O 1.59 U 2.36
3.5 O 2.45 U 1.53
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.87 11 bks
NO
1.87 11 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 4.14
Away -0.5 3.25
Away -0.75 2.86
Away -1 2.53
Away -1.25 2.10
Away -1.5 1.85
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.