GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–0 · NECAXA 45%
CONF 38 FULL ANALYSIS →
Liga MX · APERTURA - 4 · TUE, 18 AUG · 01:00 LOCAL
NECAXA
15TH · 18 PTS · LAST 5:
L W W L D
FT
1 – 2
FULL TIME HT · 0-1
LEON
W L L L L
· 10TH · 22 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 65' Matías Espíndola
GOALS
⚽ 27' Daniel Arcila ⚽ 72' Juan Dominguez
Javier Ruiz
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Javier Ruiz
Necaxa · 94 mins
· 28% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
8.2
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.16
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.91
61%
BALL POSSESSION %
39%
24
TOTAL SHOTS
15
8
SHOTS ON TARGET
7
87%
PASS ACCURACY %
72%
7
CORNERS
3
KEY EVENTS 17 events
  1. 27'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Daniel Arcila
    LEO
  2. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Carlos Vargas · assist Juan Torres
    NEC
  3. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Iván Moreno · assist Bryan Colula
    LEO
  4. 58'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Kaiky Naves
    NEC
  5. 60'
    Card · Red Card
    Rodrigo Echeverría
    LEO
  6. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    F. Beltran Cruz · assist Luis Valadez
    LEO
  7. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Jordi Cortizo · assist Juan Dominguez
    LEO
  8. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Kaiky Naves · assist Raúl Martínez
    NEC
  9. 65'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Lorenzo Faravelli · assist Mauro Zaleta
    NEC
  10. 65'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Ricardo Monreal · assist Emilio Rodriguez
    NEC
  11. 65'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Matías Espíndola · assist Juan Valencia
    NEC
  12. 72'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Juan Dominguez · assist Luis Valadez
    LEO
  13. 74'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Sebastián Vegas · assist Salvador Reyes
    LEO
  14. 78'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Matías Espíndola · assist Miguel Pedroza
    NEC
  15. 79'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Danny Leyva
    NEC
  16. 81'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Bryan Colula
    LEO
  17. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Daniel Arcila · assist Paul Bellón
    LEO
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
NECAXA AVG 7.4
LEON AVG 7.5
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.2
xG
0.9
24.0
TOTAL SHOTS
15.0
8.0
ON TARGET
7.0
10.0
OFF TARGET
4.0
6.0
BLOCKED
4.0
POSSESSION
61.0%
POSSESSION %
39.0%
422.0
PASSES
279.0
87.0%
PASS ACCURACY
72.0%
SET PIECES
7.0
CORNERS
3.0
DISCIPLINE
15.0
FOULS
13.0
2.0
YELLOW CARDS
1.0
0.0
RED CARDS
1.0
5.0
GK SAVES
7.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
NECAXA 5 shots
Javier Ruiz
1/3
Matías Espíndola
1/1
Alexis Peña
0/1
LEON 8 shots
Daniel Arcila
3/4
Diber Cambindo
2/3
Juan Dominguez
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.16 – 0.91
0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 1.2 0.0 HT 65' 27' 72' H 1.16 A 0.91 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 47%
53% A
8
EVENTS LOGGED
9
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-4-2-1 vs 4-1-4-1
3-4-2-1
4-1-4-1
7.0
12
LUIS JIME
20
FRANCISCO
 7.0
4
ALEXIS PE
5
KAIKY NAV
88
CARLOS VA
8
LORENZO F
6
DANNY LEY
30
RICARDO M
 8.2
10
JAVIER RU
 7.7
21
MATíAS ES
90
JUAN VALE
 7.7
23
OSCAR GAR
5
SEBASTIáN
 7.3
3
JUAN GUEV
14
JHOHAN RO
7
IVáN MORE
29
JOSé RODR
 7.5
13
DANIEL AR
6
FERNANDO
20
RODRIGO E
16
JORDI COR
 7.3
27
DIBER CAM
SUBSTITUTES · NECAXA
16
Pedro Pedraz...
M
13
Owen Gonzále...
M
17
Rogelio Cort...
M
15
Diego Ochoa
D
1
Christopher...
G
99
Emilio Rodri...
M
14
Mauro Zaleta
M
33
Raúl Martíne...
D
11
Juan Torres
M
27
Miguel Pedro...
F
COACH: Martin Varini
SUBSTITUTES · LEON
203
Jesús Lara
D
185
Christopher...
D
22
Sebastián Sa...
M
25
Paul Bellón
D
26
Salvador Rey...
M
12
Julio Gonzál...
G
35
Luis Valadez
M
8
Juan Domingu...
M
4
Bryan Colula
D
19
José Alvarad...
F
COACH: Javier Gandolfi
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
NEC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

LEO · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Luis Santander, Mexico
—
NEC MANAGER
Martin Varini
head coach
LEO MANAGER
Javier Gandolfi
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
3
NEC WINS
2
DRAWS
4
LEO WINS
33.3%
22.2%
44.4%
12 – 13
TOTAL GOALS · 9 MEETINGS
2.78
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
01 Mar 2026
Leon
2 – 1
Necaxa
L
16 Aug 2025
Necaxa
0 – 1
Leon
L
15 Mar 2025
Necaxa
2 – 1
Leon
W
22 Jul 2024
Leon
1 – 1
Necaxa
D
01 Apr 2024
Necaxa
1 – 2
Leon
L
NECAXA LAST 5 OVERALL
L W W L D
LEON LAST 5 OVERALL
W L L L L
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–2 · result locked
NECAXA #15
Lost · already at 18 pts
LEON #10
Won · already at 22 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 17 10 6 1 +17 36
L D W L D
2 Guadalajara Chivas 17 11 3 3 +16 36
L D W L D
3 Cruz Azul 17 9 6 2 +13 33
W D W D W
4 Pachuca 17 9 4 4 +6 31
L W W W L
5 Toluca 17 8 6 3 +12 30
L L W L L
6 Atlas 17 7 5 5 -2 26
L L W D W
7 Tigres UANL 17 7 4 6 +10 25
L W W D D
8 Club America 17 7 4 6 +3 25
D D L W W
9 Club Tijuana 17 5 8 4 +2 23
D W D W W
10 Leon 17 7 1 9 -10 22
L L W W W
11 Club Queretaro 17 4 8 5 -4 20
W D D W D
12 FC Juarez 17 5 4 8 -6 19
W L L L D
13 Monterrey 17 5 3 9 -2 18
L W L D L
14 Atletico San Luis 17 5 3 9 -3 18
L W L D W
15 Necaxa 17 5 3 9 -6 18
L D D L W
16 Mazatlán 17 4 3 10 -15 15
L W D L L
17 Puebla 17 3 4 10 -13 13
L L L L D
18 Santos Laguna 17 3 3 11 -18 12
W L L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Daniel Arcila
  • 81'
    Card · Yellow Card · Bryan Colula
    Foul
  • 79'
    Card · Yellow Card · Danny Leyva
    Foul
  • 78'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Matías Espíndola
  • 74'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Sebastián Vegas
  • 72'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Juan Dominguez
  • 65'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Matías Espíndola
  • 65'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Ricardo Monreal
  • 65'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Lorenzo Faravelli
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Kaiky Naves
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Jordi Cortizo
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · F. Beltran Cruz
  • 60'
    Card · Red Card · Rodrigo Echeverría
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 58'
    Card · Yellow Card · Kaiky Naves
    Foul
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Iván Moreno
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Carlos Vargas
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 1
  • 27'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Daniel Arcila
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
NECAXA WIN
2.54
39.4% implied
↑ best 2.70
DRAW
3.37
29.7% implied
↑ best 3.56
LEON WIN
2.59
38.6% implied
↑ best 3.05

Market favors Necaxa. AI projects NECAXA 45%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS NECAXA 45% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.54 3.55 2.54 +5.6%
1xBet 2.60 3.32 2.54 +6.5%
888Sport 2.50 3.10 2.45 +5.0%
Bet365 2.70 3.30 2.60 +8.0%
Betano 2.70 3.45 2.50 +8.0%
Betfair 2.63 3.40 2.50 +7.0%
BetVictor 2.63 3.50 2.50 +7.0%
Dafabet 2.29 3.50 3.05 +3.4%
Marathonbet 2.62 3.32 2.52 +6.8%
Pinnacle 2.70 3.56 2.62 +8.0%
SBO 2.25 3.31 2.76 +1.8%
Unibet 2.35 3.45 2.70 +3.0%
William Hill 2.50 3.10 2.45 +5.0%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.22 U 3.90
2.5 O 1.76 U 2.01
3.5 O 2.87 U 1.38
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.59 10 bks
NO
2.20 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.64
Away -0.5 1.50
Away -0.75 1.33
Away -1 1.22
Away -1.25 1.17
Away -1.5 1.13
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.