GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · ATLAS 38%
CONF 35 FULL ANALYSIS →
Liga MX · APERTURA - 4 · SUN, 16 AUG · 03:10 LOCAL
ATLAS
6TH · 26 PTS · LAST 5:
L W W L L
FT
2 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 1-1
TIGRES UANL
L D L L W
· 7TH · 25 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 2' Manuel Capasso ⚽ 81' Luís Esteves
GOALS
⚽ 21' Juan Brunetta ⚽ 85' Juan Brunetta (P)
Juan Brunetta
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Juan Brunetta
Tigres UANL · 90 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 39% pass acc · 5 shots on
RATING
8.2
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

0.66
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
2.70
45%
BALL POSSESSION %
55%
8
TOTAL SHOTS
25
3
SHOTS ON TARGET
7
77%
PASS ACCURACY %
81%
2
CORNERS
16
KEY EVENTS 17 events
  1. 2'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Manuel Capasso · assist Arturo González
    ATL
  2. 21'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Juan Brunetta · assist Rodrigo Aguirre
    TIG
  3. 22'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Victor Rios
    ATL
  4. 30'
    Card · Yellow Card
    TIG
  5. 35'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Manuel Capasso
    ATL
  6. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Victor Rios · assist Paulo Ramírez
    ATL
  7. 56'
    Card · Yellow Card
    J. Garza
    TIG
  8. 65'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Arturo González · assist Luís Esteves
    ATL
  9. 65'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Jose Martin · assist Jorge Rodríguez
    ATL
  10. 70'
    Card · Red Card
    Juan José Purata
    ATL
  11. 71'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Duk · assist Gaddi Aguirre
    ATL
  12. 80'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Francisco Reyes · assist Vladimir Loroña
    TIG
  13. 80'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Alan Javier Franco · assist Juan Vigón
    TIG
  14. 81'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Luís Esteves · assist Edgar Zaldívar
    ATL
  15. 85'
    Goal · Missed Penalty
    Juan Brunetta · assist Juan Brunetta
    TIG
  16. 88'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Joaquim · assist Diego Ramirez
    TIG
  17. 90'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Diego Lainez · assist Isac Galván
    TIG
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
ATLAS AVG 7.7
TIGRES UANL AVG 7.1
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
0.7
xG
2.7
8.0
TOTAL SHOTS
25.0
3.0
ON TARGET
7.0
4.0
OFF TARGET
9.0
1.0
BLOCKED
9.0
POSSESSION
45.0%
POSSESSION %
55.0%
342.0
PASSES
387.0
77.0%
PASS ACCURACY
81.0%
SET PIECES
2.0
CORNERS
16.0
3.0
OFFSIDES
1.0
DISCIPLINE
15.0
FOULS
11.0
2.0
YELLOW CARDS
1.0
1.0
RED CARDS
0.0
6.0
GK SAVES
1.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
ATLAS 3 shots
Luís Esteves
1/2
Manuel Capasso
1/1
TIGRES UANL 11 shots
Juan Brunetta
5/7
Diego Sánchez
0/2
Isac Galván
0/1
Juan Vigón
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 0.66 – 2.70
2.2 1.6 1.1 0.5 2.7 0.0 HT 2' 81' 21' 85' H 0.66 A 2.70 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 53%
47% A
9
EVENTS LOGGED
8
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-1-4-2 vs 4-2-3-1
3-1-4-2
4-2-3-1
7.7
12
CAMILO VA
21
RODRIGO S
 7.9
28
MANUEL CA
44
JUAN JOSé
27
VICTOR RI
2
GUSTAVO F
 7.5
58
ARTURO GO
6
EDGAR ZAL
11
DUK
203
JOSE MART
9
FLORIáN M
1
NAHUEL GU
2
FRANCISCO
15
ALAN JAVI
28
JOAQUIM
14
JESUS GAR
23
RôMULO ZW
8
FERNANDO
 7.2
30
DIEGO SáN
 8.2
11
JUAN BRUN
 6.9
16
DIEGO LAI
17
RODRIGO A
SUBSTITUTES · ATLAS
23
Sergio Herna...
M
192
Jesús Serrat...
M
17
Jose Lozano
D
4
Adrián Mora
D
22
Antonio Sánc...
G
13
Gaddi Aguirr...
D
10
Luís Esteves
M
5
Jorge Rodríg...
D
15
Paulo Ramíre...
D
251
Luis Gamboa
F
COACH: Hernan Crespo
SUBSTITUTES · TIGRES UANL
19
Mauro Laínez
F
34
Henrique Sim...
M
33
Rafael Guerr...
D
26
Fernando Ord...
D
25
Carlos Rodrí...
G
198
Isac Galván
M
200
Diego Ramire...
D
6
Juan Vigón
M
32
Vladimir Lor...
D
205
Antonio de M...
F
COACH: Hernan Elizondo
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
ATL · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

TIG · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
César Ramos Palazuelos, Mexico
—
ATL MANAGER
Hernan Crespo
head coach
TIG MANAGER
Hernan Elizondo
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
2
ATL WINS
3
DRAWS
5
TIG WINS
20%
30%
50%
6 – 10
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
1.60
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
23 Apr 2026
Atlas
0 – 0
Tigres UANL
D
25 Sep 2025
Tigres UANL
2 – 0
Atlas
L
09 Feb 2025
Tigres UANL
2 – 1
Atlas
L
13 Jul 2024
Atlas
1 – 1
Tigres UANL
D
25 Feb 2024
Tigres UANL
1 – 1
Atlas
D
ATLAS LAST 5 OVERALL
L W W L L
TIGRES UANL LAST 5 OVERALL
L D L L W
MATCH IMPACT Final 2–1 · result locked
ATLAS #6
Won · already at 26 pts
Playoffs
TIGRES UANL #7
Lost · already at 25 pts
Playoffs
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 17 10 6 1 +17 36
L D W L D
2 Guadalajara Chivas 17 11 3 3 +16 36
L D W L D
3 Cruz Azul 17 9 6 2 +13 33
W D W D W
4 Pachuca 17 9 4 4 +6 31
L W W W L
5 Toluca 17 8 6 3 +12 30
L L W L L
6 Atlas 17 7 5 5 -2 26
L L W D W
7 Tigres UANL 17 7 4 6 +10 25
L W W D D
8 Club America 17 7 4 6 +3 25
D D L W W
9 Club Tijuana 17 5 8 4 +2 23
D W D W W
10 Leon 17 7 1 9 -10 22
L L W W W
11 Club Queretaro 17 4 8 5 -4 20
W D D W D
12 FC Juarez 17 5 4 8 -6 19
W L L L D
13 Monterrey 17 5 3 9 -2 18
L W L D L
14 Atletico San Luis 17 5 3 9 -3 18
L W L D W
15 Necaxa 17 5 3 9 -6 18
L D D L W
16 Mazatlán 17 4 3 10 -15 15
L W D L L
17 Puebla 17 3 4 10 -13 13
L L L L D
18 Santos Laguna 17 3 3 11 -18 12
W L L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Diego Lainez
  • 88'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Joaquim
  • 85'
    Goal · Missed Penalty · Juan Brunetta
  • 81'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Luís Esteves
  • 80'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Alan Javier Franco
  • 80'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Francisco Reyes
  • 71'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Duk
  • 70'
    Card · Red Card · Juan José Purata
    Foul
  • 65'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Jose Martin
  • 65'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Arturo González
  • 56'
    Card · Yellow Card · J. Garza
    Foul
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Victor Rios
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 1
  • 35'
    Card · Yellow Card · Manuel Capasso
    Handling
  • 30'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 22'
    Card · Yellow Card · Victor Rios
    Foul
  • 21'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Juan Brunetta
  • 2'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Manuel Capasso
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
ATLAS WIN
3.14
31.8% implied
↑ best 3.25
DRAW
3.17
31.5% implied
↑ best 3.40
TIGRES UANL WIN
2.26
44.2% implied
↑ best 2.39

Market favors Tigres UANL. AI projects ATLAS 38%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS ATLAS 38% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 3.20 3.30 2.20 +6.8%
1xBet 3.18 3.16 2.27 +6.6%
888Sport 3.00 2.90 2.20 +4.7%
Bet365 3.20 3.20 2.35 +6.8%
Betano 3.25 3.40 2.20 +7.2%
Betfair 3.10 3.25 2.25 +5.7%
BetVictor 3.10 3.20 2.30 +5.7%
Dafabet 3.20 3.25 2.32 +6.8%
Marathonbet 3.16 3.16 2.25 +6.4%
Pinnacle 3.25 3.26 2.39 +7.2%
SBO 2.94 3.05 2.26 +4.0%
Unibet 3.25 3.20 2.14 +7.2%
William Hill 3.00 2.90 2.20 +4.7%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.35 U 2.97
2.5 O 2.13 U 1.68
3.5 O 3.87 U 1.22
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.84 10 bks
NO
1.86 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.45
Away -0.5 1.35
Away -0.75 1.22
Away -1 1.08
Away -1.25 1.07
Away -1.5 1.06
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.