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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · LEON 38%
CONF 38 FULL ANALYSIS →
Liga MX · APERTURA - 3 · SUN, 02 AUG · 01:00 LOCAL
LEON
10TH · 22 PTS · LAST 5:
L L L L W
FT
1 – 0
FULL TIME HT · 1-0
PACHUCA
L W L W W
· 4TH · 31 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 41' Daniel Arcila
GOALS
Daniel Arcila
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Daniel Arcila
Leon · 69 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 5% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
7.7
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

0.98
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.71
52%
BALL POSSESSION %
48%
15
TOTAL SHOTS
8
6
SHOTS ON TARGET
1
85%
PASS ACCURACY %
84%
4
CORNERS
6
KEY EVENTS 22 events
  1. 24'
    Card · Yellow Card
    F. Beltran Cruz
    LEO
  2. 32'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Juan Guevara
    LEO
  3. 34'
    Card · Yellow Card
    O. Idrissi
    PAC
  4. 37'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Sebastián Vegas
    LEO
  5. 41'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Daniel Arcila
    LEO
  6. 52'
    Card · Yellow Card
    F. Venegas
    PAC
  7. 57'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    F. Venegas · assist M. Isaís
    PAC
  8. 57'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    N. Vallejo · assist G. Álvarez
    PAC
  9. 57'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    F. Beltran Cruz · assist Diber Cambindo
    LEO
  10. 62'
    Card · Red Card
    C. Rivera
    PAC
  11. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    R. Pizarro · assist Alán Ernesto Bautista Gutiérrez
    PAC
  12. 69'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Daniel Arcila · assist Luis Valadez
    LEO
  13. 69'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Edgar Guerra · assist Jesús Lara
    LEO
  14. 75'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    O. Idrissi · assist A. Domínguez
    PAC
  15. 75'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    S. Rondón · assist A. Alcaraz
    PAC
  16. 75'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Eduardo Bauermann
    PAC
  17. 82'
    Card · Yellow Card
    C. Moreno
    PAC
  18. 82'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Rodrigo Echeverría
    LEO
  19. 84'
    Card · Yellow Card
    S. Barreto
    PAC
  20. 87'
    Card · Yellow Card
    A. Alcaraz
    PAC
  21. 90'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Iván Moreno · assist Bryan Colula
    LEO
  22. 90'+2
    Card · Yellow Card
    A. Mozo
    PAC
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
LEON AVG 7.4
PACHUCA AVG 7.2
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.0
xG
0.7
15.0
TOTAL SHOTS
8.0
6.0
ON TARGET
1.0
6.0
OFF TARGET
4.0
3.0
BLOCKED
3.0
POSSESSION
52.0%
POSSESSION %
48.0%
407.0
PASSES
354.0
85.0%
PASS ACCURACY
84.0%
SET PIECES
4.0
CORNERS
6.0
1.0
OFFSIDES
4.0
DISCIPLINE
9.0
FOULS
17.0
4.0
YELLOW CARDS
7.0
0.0
RED CARDS
1.0
1.0
GK SAVES
5.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
LEON 4 shots
Daniel Arcila
1/2
Iván Moreno
0/1
Jordi Cortizo
0/1
PACHUCA 0 shots

No shots recorded.

📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 0.98 – 0.71
0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.0 0.0 HT 41' H 0.98 A 0.71 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 41%
59% A
9
EVENTS LOGGED
13
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-1-4-1 vs 4-2-3-1
4-1-4-1
4-2-3-1
23
OSCAR GAR
5
SEBASTIáN
 7.6
3
JUAN GUEV
14
JHOHAN RO
 7.3
7
IVáN MORE
 7.2
29
JOSé RODR
18
EDGAR GUE
6
FERNANDO
20
RODRIGO E
 7.3
16
JORDI COR
 7.7
13
DANIEL AR
 7.7
25
C. MORENO
15
F. VENEGA
 7.0
2
S. BARRET
4
EDUARDO B
 7.2
22
A. MOZO
 7.3
10
E. MONTIE
16
C. RIVERA
11
O. IDRISS
 6.9
7
R. PIZARR
21
N. VALLEJ
23
S. RONDóN
SUBSTITUTES · LEON
35
Luis Valadez
M
22
Sebastián Sa...
M
185
Christopher...
D
25
Paul Bellón
D
4
Bryan Colula
D
27
Diber Cambin...
F
203
Jesús Lara
D
COACH: Javier Gandolfi
SUBSTITUTES · PACHUCA
211
C. Hernandez
F
19
I. Hernández
F
8
A. Domínguez
F
14
C. Sánchez
D
13
J. Berlanga
D
31
J. Eulogio
G
26
Alán Ernesto...
M
187
G. Álvarez
F
6
M. Isaís
D
9
A. Alcaraz
M
COACH: Benjamin Mora
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
LEO · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

PAC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Fernando Hernandez, Mexico
—
LEO MANAGER
Javier Gandolfi
head coach
PAC MANAGER
Benjamin Mora
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
3
LEO WINS
2
DRAWS
5
PAC WINS
30%
20%
50%
12 – 14
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.60
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
14 Jan 2026
Pachuca
2 – 1
Leon
L
23 Aug 2025
Leon
1 – 1
Pachuca
D
06 Feb 2025
Pachuca
1 – 2
Leon
W
13 Jul 2024
Leon
0 – 0
Pachuca
D
08 Feb 2024
Pachuca
3 – 2
Leon
L
LEON LAST 5 OVERALL
L L L L W
PACHUCA LAST 5 OVERALL
L W L W W
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–0 · result locked
LEON #10
Won · already at 22 pts
PACHUCA #4
Lost · already at 31 pts
Playoffs
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 17 10 6 1 +17 36
L D W L D
2 Guadalajara Chivas 17 11 3 3 +16 36
L D W L D
3 Cruz Azul 17 9 6 2 +13 33
W D W D W
4 Pachuca 17 9 4 4 +6 31
L W W W L
5 Toluca 17 8 6 3 +12 30
L L W L L
6 Atlas 17 7 5 5 -2 26
L L W D W
7 Tigres UANL 17 7 4 6 +10 25
L W W D D
8 Club America 17 7 4 6 +3 25
D D L W W
9 Club Tijuana 17 5 8 4 +2 23
D W D W W
10 Leon 17 7 1 9 -10 22
L L W W W
11 Club Queretaro 17 4 8 5 -4 20
W D D W D
12 FC Juarez 17 5 4 8 -6 19
W L L L D
13 Monterrey 17 5 3 9 -2 18
L W L D L
14 Atletico San Luis 17 5 3 9 -3 18
L W L D W
15 Necaxa 17 5 3 9 -6 18
L D D L W
16 Mazatlán 17 4 3 10 -15 15
L W D L L
17 Puebla 17 3 4 10 -13 13
L L L L D
18 Santos Laguna 17 3 3 11 -18 12
W L L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+2
    Card · Yellow Card · A. Mozo
    Foul
  • 90'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Iván Moreno
  • 87'
    Card · Yellow Card · A. Alcaraz
    Foul
  • 84'
    Card · Yellow Card · S. Barreto
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 82'
    Card · Yellow Card · Rodrigo Echeverría
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 82'
    Card · Yellow Card · C. Moreno
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 75'
    Card · Yellow Card · Eduardo Bauermann
    Foul
  • 75'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · S. Rondón
  • 75'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · O. Idrissi
  • 69'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Edgar Guerra
  • 69'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Daniel Arcila
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · R. Pizarro
  • 62'
    Card · Red Card · C. Rivera
    Foul
  • 57'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · F. Beltran Cruz
  • 57'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · N. Vallejo
  • 57'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · F. Venegas
  • 52'
    Card · Yellow Card · F. Venegas
    Foul
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 0
  • 41'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Daniel Arcila
  • 37'
    Card · Yellow Card · Sebastián Vegas
    Foul
  • 34'
    Card · Yellow Card · O. Idrissi
    Foul
  • 32'
    Card · Yellow Card · Juan Guevara
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 24'
    Card · Yellow Card · F. Beltran Cruz
    Foul
14 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 14 BOOKMAKERS
LEON WIN
2.84
35.2% implied
↑ best 3.00
DRAW
3.26
30.7% implied
↑ best 3.45
PACHUCA WIN
2.39
41.8% implied
↑ best 2.49

Market favors Pachuca. AI projects LEON 38%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS LEON 38% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.88 3.45 2.30 +3.3%
1xBet 2.86 3.24 2.41 +3.0%
888Sport 2.70 3.00 2.30 +1.0%
Bet365 3.00 3.25 2.40 +4.7%
Betano 2.92 3.20 2.45 +3.8%
Betfair 2.80 3.30 2.40 +2.3%
BetVictor 2.80 3.40 2.38 +2.6%
Dafabet 2.90 3.40 2.45 +3.5%
Marathonbet 2.84 3.24 2.39 +2.8%
Pinnacle 2.94 3.42 2.49 +4.0%
SBO 2.60 3.15 2.45 +0.3%
Superbet 2.85 3.25 2.42 +2.9%
Unibet 3.00 3.30 2.28 +4.7%
William Hill 2.70 3.00 2.30 +1.0%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.23 U 3.79
2.5 O 1.80 U 1.98
3.5 O 2.93 U 1.36
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.61 11 bks
NO
2.16 11 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.53
Away -0.5 1.41
Away -0.75 1.28
Away -1 1.15
Away -1.25 1.12
Away -1.5 1.10
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.