GOALSENSE
SIGN IN
Copa Libertadores · ROUND OF 16 · TUE, 18 AUG · 22:00 LOCAL
← Match Page
INDEPEND. RIVADAVIA
PEN
1 – 1
AFTER PENALTIES
FLUMINENSE
⚽ 90+7' Alex Arce ⚽ 120+1' Matías Fernández ⚽ 120+2' Iván Villalba ⚽ 120+3' Jose Ignacio Florentin ⚽ 120+4' Maximiliano Salas ⚽ 120+5' Alex Arce ⚽ 120+6' R. Atencio
GOALS
⚽ 75' K. Serna ⚽ 120+1' Thiago Silva ⚽ 120+2' L. Acosta ⚽ 120+3' Renê ⚽ 120+4' Hércules ⚽ 120+5' Martinelli ⚽ 120+6' Guga
CLAUDE AI · BLENDED FROM 4 MODELS
FINAL · VERIFIED
CONF 52/100 MED
🔮 PREDICTED FULL-TIME SCORE
IND
1 – 1
FLU
most likely scoreline · 14.4% probability
AI PICKS INDEPEND. RIVADAVIA TO WIN 38%
FT 1 – 1
→
🤖 AI PROJECTED FT 1 – 1
🤖 AI BREAKDOWN

HOW AI SEES THE MATCH

FINAL · VERIFIED
IND WIN 38%
DRAW 38%
FLU WIN 24%
h + d + a = 100% · stacked share
💰 AI BETTING TIP
DOUBLE CHANCE — 1X

Tight 1X2 — single-side too risky. Double chance covers 76% of outcomes with smaller payout.

CONF 76% avoid: 1X2 single 4 models
🤖 AI ANALYSIS

Match tied at 90' with 45 minutes of extra time ahead; slight lean to draw given defensive shape and late leveller.

🤖 AI REASONING why AI picked this
WHY INDEPEND. RIVADAVIA FAVORED
38%
Current 1–1 scoreline at end of regulation (90') dramatically shifts baseline from pre-match — draw is now baseline outcome
+25.0%
Independ. Rivadavia strong at home (WWLDW) but already equalised via penalty; Fluminense compact away (DL in sample)
+20.0%
Copa Libertadores extra time format favours defensive shape; both sides have made 3–4 changes, suggesting fatigue
+15.0%
WHY FLUMINENSE CHALLENGED
24%
Current 1–1 scoreline at end of regulation (90') dramatically shifts baseline from pre-match — draw is now baseline outcome
+25.0%
Independ. Rivadavia strong at home (WWLDW) but already equalised via penalty; Fluminense compact away (DL in sample)
+20.0%
Copa Libertadores extra time format favours defensive shape; both sides have made 3–4 changes, suggesting fatigue
+15.0%
🤖 CONTEXT · NEUTRAL FACTORS
  • Current 1–1 scoreline at end of regulation (90') dramatically shifts baseline from pre-match — draw is now baseline outcome
  • Independ. Rivadavia strong at home (WWLDW) but already equalised via penalty; Fluminense compact away (DL in sample)
  • Copa Libertadores extra time format favours defensive shape; both sides have made 3–4 changes, suggesting fatigue
🤖 AI LIVE TIMELINE

PROBABILITY TIMELINE

How AI re-projects after each event
H DRAW A
100% 50% 0% KO 15' 30' HT 60' 75' FT ⚽ 75' K. SERNA ⚽ 97' ALEX ARCE ⚽ 121' THIAGO SIL ⚽ 121' MATíAS FE ⚽ 122' L. ACOSTA ⚽ 122' IVáN VILL ⚽ 123' JOSE IGNAC ⚽ 123' RENê ⚽ 124' HéRCULES ⚽ 124' MAXIMILIAN ⚽ 125' MARTINELLI ⚽ 125' ALEX ARCE ⚽ 126' GUGA ⚽ 126' R. ATENCIO
Probabilities re-blended at each event · 14 events marked → Derived from goal events + remaining time
🤖 AI SCORE MATRIX

SCORELINE PROBABILITY

All possible scorelines · Poisson from xG
0% 14.4%+
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
13.5
12.7
6.0
1.9
0.4
0.1
·
1
14.4
13.5
6.3
2.0
0.5
0.1
·
2
7.6
7.2
3.4
1.1
0.3
·
·
3
2.7
2.5
1.2
0.4
0.1
·
·
4
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.1
·
·
·
5
0.2
0.1
0.1
·
·
·
·
6+
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
MOST LIKELY · TOP 5
1 — 0 14.4%
0 — 0 13.5%
1 — 1 13.5%
0 — 1 12.7%
2 — 0 7.6%
Top 5 = 61.7% · rest 38.3%
🤖 AI VALUE FINDER

VALUE BETS

Where AI sees an edge vs bookmaker odds
8 markets · pre-match avg odds
MARKETODDSAI PROBFAIREDGE
Draw
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.85
38.0%
2.63
+8.2%
Both Teams Score — YES
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.15
48.0%
2.08
+3.3%
—
HOME or Draw (1X)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.35
76.0%
1.32
+2.9%
—
HOME to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.57
38.0%
2.63
-2.5%
—
Over 2.5 Goals
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.75
35.0%
2.86
-3.8%
—
Draw or AWAY (X2)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.47
62.0%
1.61
-9.1%
—
HOME or AWAY (12)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.40
62.0%
1.61
-13.0%
—
AWAY to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
3.08
24.0%
4.17
-26.0%
—
⚠ 18+ only. Odds change frequently. AI predictions are not guarantees. Bet responsibly.