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Copa Libertadores · ROUND OF 16 · WED, 12 AUG · 22:00 LOCAL
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PALMEIRAS
FT
1 – 1
FULL TIME
CERRO PORTENO
⚽ 82' José Manuel López
GOALS
⚽ 90+3' Carlos Miguel
CLAUDE AI · BLENDED FROM 4 MODELS
FINAL · VERIFIED
CONF 62/100 MED
🔮 PREDICTED FULL-TIME SCORE
PAL
1 – 1
CER
most likely scoreline · 14.6% probability
AI PICKS CERRO PORTENO TO WIN 47%
FT 1 – 1
→
🤖 AI PROJECTED FT 1 – 1
🤖 AI BREAKDOWN

HOW AI SEES THE MATCH

FINAL · VERIFIED
PAL WIN 28%
DRAW 25%
CER WIN 47%
h + d + a = 100% · stacked share
💰 AI BETTING TIP
DOUBLE CHANCE — X2

Tight 1X2 — single-side too risky. Double chance covers 72% of outcomes with smaller payout.

CONF 72% avoid: 1X2 single 4 models
🤖 AI ANALYSIS

Cerro Porteno ahead 1-0 with 18 min left; Palmeiras pressing but away team's defensive setup (5-4-1) and road pedigree (WWLLL form masked by early fixture ease) suggest upset hold is live.

🤖 AI REASONING why AI picked this
WHY PALMEIRAS CHALLENGED
28%
H2H shows Cerro Porteno won last two (0-1, 0-1); recent pattern favours visitors despite Palmeiras home record LWWWW
+20.0%
Palmeiras' away form LWDWW mixed, but Cerro Porteno road form WWLLL suggests fixture quality context — early-season fixture ease inflates their record; 18 min + defensive discipline = high hold probability
+15.0%
WHY CERRO PORTENO FAVORED
47%
1-goal lead in final 18 min favours away team; Cerro Porteno 5-4-1 shape is defensively compact
+25.0%
🤖 CONTEXT · NEUTRAL FACTORS
  • H2H shows Cerro Porteno won last two (0-1, 0-1); recent pattern favours visitors despite Palmeiras home record LWWWW
  • Palmeiras' away form LWDWW mixed, but Cerro Porteno road form WWLLL suggests fixture quality context — early-season fixture ease inflates their record; 18 min + defensive discipline = high hold probability
🤖 AI LIVE TIMELINE

PROBABILITY TIMELINE

How AI re-projects after each event
H DRAW A
100% 50% 0% KO 15' 30' HT 60' 75' FT ⚽ 82' JOSé MANU ⚽ 93' CARLOS MIG
Probabilities re-blended at each event · 2 events marked → Derived from goal events + remaining time
🤖 AI SCORE MATRIX

SCORELINE PROBABILITY

All possible scorelines · Poisson from xG
0% 14.6%+
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
13.5
14.6
7.9
2.8
0.8
0.2
·
1
12.5
13.5
7.3
2.6
0.7
0.2
·
2
5.7
6.2
3.3
1.2
0.3
0.1
·
3
1.8
1.9
1.0
0.4
0.1
·
·
4
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.1
·
·
·
5
0.1
0.1
·
·
·
·
·
6+
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
MOST LIKELY · TOP 5
0 — 1 14.6%
0 — 0 13.5%
1 — 1 13.5%
1 — 0 12.5%
0 — 2 7.9%
Top 5 = 61.9% · rest 38.1%
🤖 AI VALUE FINDER

VALUE BETS

Where AI sees an edge vs bookmaker odds
8 markets · pre-match avg odds
MARKETODDSAI PROBFAIREDGE
AWAY to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
9.91
47.0%
2.13
+365.8%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
3.13
72.0%
1.39
+125.4%
Draw
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
4.57
25.0%
4.00
+14.3%
Both Teams Score — YES
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.68
42.0%
2.38
+12.6%
HOME or AWAY (12)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.18
75.0%
1.33
-11.7%
—
Over 2.5 Goals
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.18
38.0%
2.63
-17.3%
—
HOME or Draw (1X)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.05
53.0%
1.89
-44.3%
—
HOME to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.34
28.0%
3.57
-62.4%
—
⚠ 18+ only. Odds change frequently. AI predictions are not guarantees. Bet responsibly.