GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–0 · LANUS 52%
CONF 38 FULL ANALYSIS →
Copa Libertadores · GROUP STAGE - 3 · TUE, 28 APR · 22:00 LOCAL
LANUS
FT
1 – 0
FULL TIME HT · 0-0
LDU DE QUITO
⚽ 74' Agustín Cardozo
GOALS
Marcelino Moreno
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Marcelino Moreno
Lanus · 85 mins
🅰 1 assist · 21% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
7.9
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

0.86
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.21
56%
BALL POSSESSION %
44%
11
TOTAL SHOTS
7
5
SHOTS ON TARGET
1
82%
PASS ACCURACY %
77%
6
CORNERS
4
KEY EVENTS 15 events
  1. 12'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Yerlin Quinonez
    LDU
  2. 15'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Tomás Guidara
    LAN
  3. 45'+4
    Card · Yellow Card
    Ramiro Carrera
    LAN
  4. 45'+5
    Card · Yellow Card
    Gian Franco Allala
    LDU
  5. 53'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Carlos Izquierdoz
    LAN
  6. 58'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Jeison Medina
    LDU
  7. 62'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Lucas Besozzi · assist Dylan Aquino
    LAN
  8. 62'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Ramiro Carrera · assist Yoshan Valois
    LAN
  9. 72'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Eduardo Salvio · assist Matías Sepúlveda
    LAN
  10. 72'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Felipe Peña Biafore · assist Agustín Cardozo
    LAN
  11. 74'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Agustín Cardozo · assist Marcelino Moreno
    LAN
  12. 77'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Deyverson · assist Michael Estrada
    LDU
  13. 77'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Rodney Redes · assist Alejandro Tobar
    LDU
  14. 77'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Jeison Medina · assist R. Mina
    LDU
  15. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Marcelino Moreno · assist Franco Watson
    LAN
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
LANUS AVG 7.4
LDU DE QUITO AVG 7.1
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
0.9
xG
0.2
11.0
TOTAL SHOTS
7.0
5.0
ON TARGET
1.0
3.0
OFF TARGET
4.0
3.0
BLOCKED
2.0
POSSESSION
56.0%
POSSESSION %
44.0%
456.0
PASSES
352.0
82.0%
PASS ACCURACY
77.0%
SET PIECES
6.0
CORNERS
4.0
1.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
11.0
FOULS
7.0
3.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
1.0
GK SAVES
4.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
LANUS 4 shots
Marcelino Moreno
1/3
Carlos Izquierdoz
1/1
LDU DE QUITO 3 shots
Deyverson
1/2
Jesús Pretell
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 0.86 – 0.21
0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.0 HT 74' H 0.86 A 0.21 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 60%
40% A
9
EVENTS LOGGED
6
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-3
4-2-3-1
3-4-3
26
NAHUEL LO
6
SASHA MAR
 7.3
13
JOSé CANA
 7.3
24
CARLOS IZ
 7.2
33
TOMáS GUI
 7.5
17
AGUSTíN M
5
FELIPE PE
77
LUCAS BES
 7.9
10
MARCELINO
11
EDUARDO S
23
RAMIRO CA
 7.3
1
GONZALO V
 7.3
33
LEONEL QU
 6.9
44
LUIS SEGO
30
GIAN FRAN
23
YERLIN QU
 7.0
8
JESúS PRE
15
GABRIEL V
14
JOSé QUIN
7
RODNEY RE
 7.0
16
DEYVERSON
9
JEISON ME
SUBSTITUTES · LANUS
30
Agustín Card...
M
8
Franco Watso...
M
16
Matías Sepúl...
M
9
Walter Bou
F
27
Facundo Sánc...
D
3
Nicolás Morg...
D
4
Gonzalo Pere...
D
35
Ronaldo De J...
D
1
Franco Petro...
G
19
Yoshan Valoi...
F
25
Dylan Aquino
F
20
Bruno Cabrer...
F
COACH: Mauricio Pellegrino
SUBSTITUTES · LDU DE QUITO
27
Ruddy Mina
M
10
Alexander Al...
M
99
Alejandro To...
M
21
Ederson Cast...
M
5
Kevin Minda
M
18
Washington O...
M
32
Edison Gomez
M
25
Patrick Orti...
M
26
Josue Caiced...
D
31
Daniel Isai...
D
22
Alexander Do...
G
11
Michael Estr...
F
COACH: Nunes Tiago
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
LAN · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

LDU · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Jose Cabero Rebolledo, Chile
—
LAN MANAGER
Mauricio Pellegrino
head coach
LDU MANAGER
Nunes Tiago
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
2
LAN WINS
0
DRAWS
0
LDU WINS
100%
5 – 2
TOTAL GOALS · 2 MEETINGS
3.50
AVG GOALS / MATCH
LANUS LAST 5 OVERALL
L L D D L
LDU DE QUITO LAST 5 OVERALL
L W
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–0 · result locked
LANUS #2
Won · already at 6 pts
Playoffs
LDU DE QUITO #3
Lost · already at 6 pts
Copa Sudamericana
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Flamengo 3 2 1 0 +5 7
D W W
1 Rosario Central 4 3 1 0 +5 10
W W W D
1 Mirassol 4 3 0 1 +3 9
W W L W
1 Palmeiras 4 2 2 0 +3 8
W D W D
1 Corinthians 4 3 1 0 +6 10
D W W W
1 U. Catolica 4 2 1 1 +1 7
D W W L
1 Independ. Rivadavia 4 3 1 0 +5 10
D W W W
1 Deportes Tolima 4 2 1 1 +4 7
W W L D W
2 Independiente del Valle 4 2 1 1 +1 7
L W W D
2 Lanus 4 2 0 2 -3 6
L W W L
2 Cerro Porteno 4 2 1 1 +1 7
W D W L
2 Platense 4 2 1 1 0 7
D W W L
2 Cruzeiro 4 2 1 1 +1 7
D W L W
2 Bolívar 4 1 2 1 +1 5
D W D L
2 Coquimbo Unido 4 2 1 1 0 7
W L W D
2 Estudiantes L.P. 4 1 3 0 +1 6
D D W D
3 UCV 4 2 0 2 -1 6
W L L W
3 LDU de Quito 4 2 0 2 0 6
L L W W
3 Sporting Cristal 4 2 0 2 0 6
L W L W D
3 Penarol 4 0 2 2 -3 2
D L L D
3 Boca Juniors 4 2 0 2 +2 6
L L W W
3 Deportivo La Guaira 4 0 3 1 -3 3
D L D D
3 Universitario 4 1 1 2 -1 4
L W L D
3 Independiente Medellin 3 1 1 1 -2 4
W L D W D
4 Always Ready 4 1 0 3 0 3
W L L L
4 Junior 4 0 1 3 -4 1
L L L D
4 Santa Fe 4 0 2 2 -3 2
D L L D
4 Barcelona SC 4 1 0 3 -4 3
W L L L W
4 Fluminense 4 0 2 2 -3 2
D L L D
4 Club Nacional 4 1 1 2 -3 4
L L W D
4 Cusco 4 0 1 3 -4 1
D L L L
4 Libertad Asuncion 4 0 0 4 -5 0
L L L L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Marcelino Moreno
  • 77'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Jeison Medina
  • 77'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Rodney Redes
  • 77'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Deyverson
  • 74'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Agustín Cardozo
  • 72'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Felipe Peña Biafore
  • 72'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Eduardo Salvio
  • 62'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Ramiro Carrera
  • 62'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Lucas Besozzi
  • 58'
    Card · Yellow Card · Jeison Medina
    Foul
  • 53'
    Card · Yellow Card · Carlos Izquierdoz
    Elbowing
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 0
  • 45'+5
    Card · Yellow Card · Gian Franco Allala
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 45'+4
    Card · Yellow Card · Ramiro Carrera
    Elbowing
  • 15'
    Card · Yellow Card · Tomás Guidara
    Holding
  • 12'
    Card · Yellow Card · Yerlin Quinonez
    Foul
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
LANUS WIN
1.50
66.7% implied
↑ best 1.65
DRAW
3.78
26.5% implied
↑ best 4.00
LDU DE QUITO WIN
7.54
13.3% implied
↑ best 8.13

Market favors Lanus. AI projects LANUS 52%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS LANUS 52% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.48 3.70 8.10 +7.7%
1xBet 1.51 3.88 8.10 +7.7%
888Sport 1.65 3.40 5.00 0.0%
Bet365 1.50 3.90 7.50 +6.7%
Betano 1.53 4.00 8.00 +7.5%
Betfair 1.47 3.75 8.00 +7.5%
BetVictor 1.50 3.80 8.00 +7.5%
Dafabet 1.51 4.00 7.80 +7.2%
Marathonbet 1.47 3.78 7.90 +7.3%
Pinnacle 1.49 3.99 8.13 +7.7%
SBO 1.46 3.50 6.47 +4.5%
Unibet 1.48 3.80 8.00 +7.5%
William Hill 1.44 3.60 7.00 +5.7%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.46 U 2.61
2.5 O 2.42 U 1.55
3.5 O 4.65 U 1.17
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
2.50 10 bks
NO
1.47 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 3.32
Away -0.5 2.58
Away -0.75 2.26
Away -1 1.90
Away -1.25 1.63
Away -1.5 1.48
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.