GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 2–1 · INDEPEND. RIVADAVIA 68%
CONF 62 FULL ANALYSIS →
Copa Libertadores · GROUP STAGE - 3 · THU, 30 APR · 22:00 LOCAL
INDEPEND. RIVADAVIA
FT
4 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 3-1
DEPORTIVO LA GUAIRA
⚽ 27' Alex Arce ⚽ 45' Sebastián Villa (P) ⚽ 45+2' Alex Arce ⚽ 64' Alex Arce
GOALS
⚽ 32' Guillermo Ortíz
Sebastián Villa
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Sebastián Villa
Independ. Rivadavia · Captain · 94 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 🅰 1 assist · 29% pass acc · 2 shots on
RATING
9.5
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

3.37
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.26
53%
BALL POSSESSION %
47%
13
TOTAL SHOTS
5
5
SHOTS ON TARGET
2
80%
PASS ACCURACY %
82%
4
CORNERS
2
KEY EVENTS 17 events
  1. 27'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Alex Arce · assist Matías Fernández
    IND
  2. 32'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Guillermo Ortíz · assist Franco Cáceres
    DEP
  3. 45'
    Goal · Penalty
    Sebastián Villa
    IND
  4. 45'+2
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Alex Arce · assist Sebastián Villa
    IND
  5. 47'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Ezequiel Bonifacio
    IND
  6. 53'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Franco Cáceres · assist Juan Castellanos
    DEP
  7. 54'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    José Correa · assist Carlos Faya
    DEP
  8. 54'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Flabian Londoño · assist Alexis Rodríguez
    DEP
  9. 64'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Alex Arce · assist José Florentín
    IND
  10. 73'
    Var · Penalty cancelled
    Fabrizio Sartori
    IND
  11. 76'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Fabrizio Sartori · assist Rodrigo Atencio
    IND
  12. 76'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Ezequiel Bonifacio · assist Juan Manuel Elordi
    IND
  13. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Juan Perdomo · assist Cesar Da Silva
    DEP
  14. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    José Alí Meza · assist Yackson Rivas
    DEP
  15. 82'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    José Florentín · assist Leonel Bucca
    IND
  16. 82'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Alex Arce · assist Victorio Ramis
    IND
  17. 87'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Matías Fernández · assist Gonzalo Ríos
    IND
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
INDEPEND. RIVADAVIA AVG 8.0
DEPORTIVO LA GUAIRA AVG 6.8
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
3.4
xG
0.3
13.0
TOTAL SHOTS
5.0
5.0
ON TARGET
2.0
7.0
OFF TARGET
2.0
1.0
BLOCKED
1.0
POSSESSION
53.0%
POSSESSION %
47.0%
351.0
PASSES
326.0
80.0%
PASS ACCURACY
82.0%
SET PIECES
4.0
CORNERS
2.0
1.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
11.0
FOULS
15.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
0.0
1.0
GK SAVES
1.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
INDEPEND. RIVADAVIA 8 shots
Alex Arce
3/6
Sebastián Villa
2/2
DEPORTIVO LA GUAIRA 3 shots
Guillermo Ortíz
1/1
Juan Perdomo
0/1
Franco Cáceres
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 3.37 – 0.26
2.7 2 1.3 0.7 3.4 0.0 HT 27' 45' 45' 64' 32' H 3.37 A 0.26 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 65%
35% A
11
EVENTS LOGGED
6
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS
1
NICOLáS B
 9.2
9
ALEX ARCE
 9.5
22
SEBASTIáN
43
FABRIZIO
10
MATíAS FE
25
JOSé FLOR
 7.2
5
TOMAS BOT
14
LUCIANO G
 7.2
42
SHEYKO ST
 6.9
40
IVáN VILL
36
EZEQUIEL
1
CRISTOPHE
36
FLABIAN L
7
JOSé ALí
 6.6
8
JUAN PERD
27
JOSé CORR
 6.5
32
FRANCO Cá
13
ROMMELL I
20
JORGE GUT
3
DIEGO OSí
 7.3
24
GUILLERMO
16
LUIS PENA
SUBSTITUTES · INDEPEND. RIVADAVIA
13
Alejo Osella
D
20
Alessandro R...
M
32
Kevin Vázque...
M
34
Stefano More...
M
2
Leonard Cost...
D
21
Emmanuel Góm...
G
11
Gonzalo Ríos
M
7
Victorio Ram...
F
8
Leonel Bucca
M
19
Rodrigo Aten...
F
3
Juan Manuel...
D
27
Diego Crego
M
COACH: Alfredo Berti
SUBSTITUTES · DEPORTIVO LA GUAIRA
33
Nelson Herná...
D
5
Martín Giano...
D
41
Fabricio Lun...
M
22
Manuel Sulba...
M
19
Genderson As...
D
12
Jorge Sánche...
G
18
Yackson Riva...
F
14
Cesar Da Sil...
M
21
Alexis Rodrí...
F
6
Carlos Faya
M
10
Juan Castell...
M
9
Anthony Urib...
F
COACH: Hector Bidoglio
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
IND · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

DEP · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Augusto Menendez, Peru
—
IND MANAGER
Alfredo Berti
head coach
DEP MANAGER
Hector Bidoglio
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
0
IND WINS
1
DRAWS
0
DEP WINS
100%
INDEPEND. RIVADAVIA LAST 5 OVERALL
L D D W D
DEPORTIVO LA GUAIRA LAST 5 OVERALL
D D
MATCH IMPACT Final 4–1 · result locked
INDEPEND. RIVADAVIA #1
Won · already at 10 pts
Playoffs
DEPORTIVO LA GUAIRA #3
Lost · already at 3 pts
Copa Sudamericana
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Flamengo 3 2 1 0 +5 7
D W W
1 Rosario Central 4 3 1 0 +5 10
W W W D
1 Mirassol 4 3 0 1 +3 9
W W L W
1 Palmeiras 4 2 2 0 +3 8
W D W D
1 Corinthians 4 3 1 0 +6 10
D W W W
1 U. Catolica 4 2 1 1 +1 7
D W W L
1 Independ. Rivadavia 4 3 1 0 +5 10
D W W W
1 Deportes Tolima 4 2 1 1 +4 7
W W L D W
2 Independiente del Valle 4 2 1 1 +1 7
L W W D
2 Lanus 4 2 0 2 -3 6
L W W L
2 Cerro Porteno 4 2 1 1 +1 7
W D W L
2 Platense 4 2 1 1 0 7
D W W L
2 Cruzeiro 4 2 1 1 +1 7
D W L W
2 Bolívar 4 1 2 1 +1 5
D W D L
2 Coquimbo Unido 4 2 1 1 0 7
W L W D
2 Estudiantes L.P. 4 1 3 0 +1 6
D D W D
3 UCV 4 2 0 2 -1 6
W L L W
3 LDU de Quito 4 2 0 2 0 6
L L W W
3 Sporting Cristal 4 2 0 2 0 6
L W L W D
3 Penarol 4 0 2 2 -3 2
D L L D
3 Boca Juniors 4 2 0 2 +2 6
L L W W
3 Deportivo La Guaira 4 0 3 1 -3 3
D L D D
3 Universitario 4 1 1 2 -1 4
L W L D
3 Independiente Medellin 3 1 1 1 -2 4
W L D W D
4 Always Ready 4 1 0 3 0 3
W L L L
4 Junior 4 0 1 3 -4 1
L L L D
4 Santa Fe 4 0 2 2 -3 2
D L L D
4 Barcelona SC 4 1 0 3 -4 3
W L L L W
4 Fluminense 4 0 2 2 -3 2
D L L D
4 Club Nacional 4 1 1 2 -3 4
L L W D
4 Cusco 4 0 1 3 -4 1
D L L L
4 Libertad Asuncion 4 0 0 4 -5 0
L L L L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 87'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Matías Fernández
  • 82'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Alex Arce
  • 82'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · José Florentín
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · José Alí Meza
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Juan Perdomo
  • 76'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Ezequiel Bonifacio
  • 76'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Fabrizio Sartori
  • 73'
    Var · Penalty cancelled · Fabrizio Sartori
  • 64'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Alex Arce
  • 54'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Flabian Londoño
  • 54'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · José Correa
  • 53'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Franco Cáceres
  • 47'
    Card · Yellow Card · Ezequiel Bonifacio
    Foul
  • HALF TIME · 3 – 1
  • 45'+2
    Goal · Normal Goal · Alex Arce
  • 45'
    Goal · Penalty · Sebastián Villa
  • 32'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Guillermo Ortíz
  • 27'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Alex Arce
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
INDEPEND. RIVADA WIN
1.37
73% implied
↑ best 1.44
DRAW
4.53
22.1% implied
↑ best 4.80
DEPORTIVO LA GUA WIN
8.79
11.4% implied
↑ best 10.00

Market favors Independ. Rivadavia. AI projects INDEPEND. RIVADAVIA 68%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS INDEPEND. RIVADAVIA 68% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.35 4.40 10.00 +2.0%
1xBet 1.38 4.76 9.10 +1.0%
888Sport 1.44 4.00 7.00 -1.4%
Bet365 1.40 4.75 7.50 -1.1%
Betano 1.42 4.60 9.50 +1.5%
Betfair 1.33 4.60 9.50 +1.5%
BetVictor 1.36 4.60 9.50 +1.5%
Dafabet 1.40 4.80 8.60 +0.4%
Marathonbet 1.35 4.60 8.80 +0.6%
Pinnacle 1.38 4.72 9.29 +1.2%
SBO 1.34 4.09 7.43 -1.5%
Unibet 1.34 4.60 10.00 +2.0%
William Hill 1.36 4.33 8.00 -0.5%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.29 U 3.36
2.5 O 1.95 U 1.83
3.5 O 3.40 U 1.29
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
2.23 10 bks
NO
1.58 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 3.89
Away -0.5 2.99
Away -0.75 2.63
Away -1 2.29
Away -1.25 1.89
Away -1.5 1.67
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.