GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 3–2 · CEREZO OSAKA 92% · Value: Over 2.5 94%
CONF 88 FULL ANALYSIS →
J1 League · REGULAR SEASON - 16 · SAT, 09 MAY · 07:00 LOCAL
CEREZO OSAKA
4TH · 25 PTS · LAST 5:
D D D L W
FT
3 – 2
FULL TIME HT · 1-1
V-VAREN NAGASAKI
W L W D L
· 10TH · 19 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 28' Thiago Andrade ⚽ 63' Shunta Tanaka ⚽ 83' Motohiko Nakajima (P) ⚽ 90+4' Shinji Kagawa (P)
GOALS
⚽ 25' Yamasaki Ryogo (P) ⚽ 72' Matheus Jesus
Thiago Andrade
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Thiago Andrade
Cerezo Osaka · 88 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 10% pass acc · 2 shots on
RATING
8.2
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 1 CLIP

powered by Highlightly
J1 League: Cerezo Osaka vs V-Varen Nagasaki
Open in Youtube ↗
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

66%
BALL POSSESSION %
34%
21
TOTAL SHOTS
6
8
SHOTS ON TARGET
4
85%
PASS ACCURACY %
64%
8
CORNERS
2
KEY EVENTS 19 events
  1. 25'
    Goal · Penalty
    Yamasaki Ryogo
    V-V
  2. 28'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Thiago Andrade · assist Motohiko Nakajima
    CER
  3. 62'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Norman Campbell · assist Tsubasa Kasayanagi
    V-V
  4. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Yamasaki Ryogo · assist Matheus Jesus
    V-V
  5. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Eduardo · assist Kushibiki Kazuki
    V-V
  6. 63'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Shunta Tanaka · assist Masaya Shibayama
    CER
  7. 71'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Motoki Hasegawa · assist Thiago Santana
    V-V
  8. 72'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Matheus Jesus
    V-V
  9. 83'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Yoneda Shunya · assist Tenmu Matsumoto
    V-V
  10. 83'
    Goal · Missed Penalty
    Motohiko Nakajima · assist Motohiko Nakajima
    CER
  11. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Yumeki Yokoyama · assist Satoki Uejo
    CER
  12. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Masaya Shibayama · assist Shion Homma
    CER
  13. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Motohiko Nakajima · assist Shinji Kagawa
    CER
  14. 86'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Riku Yamada
    V-V
  15. 86'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Thiago Santana
    V-V
  16. 88'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Thiago Andrade · assist Solomon Sakuragawa
    CER
  17. 90'+4
    Goal · Penalty
    Shinji Kagawa
    CER
  18. 90'+11
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Nelson Ishiwatari · assist Hayato Tanaka
    CER
  19. 90'+11
    Card · Yellow Card
    Kosuke Nakamura
    CER
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
CEREZO OSAKA AVG 7.6
V-VAREN NAGASAKI AVG 6.9
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
21.0
TOTAL SHOTS
6.0
8.0
ON TARGET
4.0
7.0
OFF TARGET
2.0
6.0
BLOCKED
0.0
POSSESSION
66.0%
POSSESSION %
34.0%
514.0
PASSES
273.0
85.0%
PASS ACCURACY
64.0%
SET PIECES
8.0
CORNERS
2.0
5.0
OFFSIDES
2.0
DISCIPLINE
9.0
FOULS
14.0
0.0
YELLOW CARDS
2.0
2.0
GK SAVES
5.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
CEREZO OSAKA 7 shots
Thiago Andrade
2/2
Shunta Tanaka
1/2
Masaya Shibayama
0/2
Shinji Kagawa
1/1
V-VAREN NAGASAKI 1 shots
Matheus Jesus
1/1
⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 53%
47% A
10
EVENTS LOGGED
9
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-2-1
4-2-3-1
3-4-2-1
23
KOSUKE NA
16
HAYATO OK
44
SHINNOSUK
4
RIKITO IN
 7.3
27
DION COOL
 7.9
10
SHUNTA TA
18
NELSON IS
14
YUMEKI YO
13
MOTOHIKO
 7.3
48
MASAYA SH
 8.2
11
THIAGO AN
 6.9
13
HATANO GO
22
ONAGA HIJ
 6.7
4
EDUARDO
48
HAYATO TE
23
YONEDA SH
5
YAMAGUCHI
24
RIKU YAMA
 6.6
3
MASAHIRO
11
NORMAN CA
 6.9
41
MOTOKI HA
18
YAMASAKI
SUBSTITUTES · CEREZO OSAKA
8
Shinji Kagaw...
M
5
Hinata Kida
M
7
Satoki Uejo
M
19
Shion Homma
M
2
Takumi Nakam...
D
3
Hayato Tanak...
D
6
Kyohei Nobor...
D
21
Jin Hyeon Ki...
G
9
Solomon Saku...
F
COACH: Arthur Papas
SUBSTITUTES · V-VAREN NAGASAKI
34
Tenmu Matsum...
M
6
Yusei Egawa
D
17
Keita Takaha...
D
1
Goto Masaaki
G
9
Thiago Santa...
F
10
Matheus Jesu...
M
33
Tsubasa Kasa...
M
25
Kushibiki Ka...
D
21
Diego Pituca
M
COACH: Takuya Takagi
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
CER · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

V-V · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Koki Nagamine, Japan
—
CER MANAGER
Arthur Papas
head coach
V-V MANAGER
Takuya Takagi
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
4
CER WINS
0
DRAWS
3
V-V WINS
57.1%
42.9%
10 – 7
TOTAL GOALS · 7 MEETINGS
2.43
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 3 / 7
28 Feb 2026
V-varen Nagasaki
1 – 0
Cerezo Osaka
L
19 Aug 2018
V-varen Nagasaki
0 – 2
Cerezo Osaka
W
05 May 2018
Cerezo Osaka
3 – 1
V-varen Nagasaki
W
CEREZO OSAKA LAST 5 OVERALL
D D D L W
V-VAREN NAGASAKI LAST 5 OVERALL
W L W D L
MATCH IMPACT Final 3–2 · result locked
CEREZO OSAKA #4
Won · already at 25 pts
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
V-VAREN NAGASAKI #10
Lost · already at 19 pts
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Kashima 16 13 0 3 +17 39
W W W L W
1 Nagoya Grampus 16 10 0 6 +9 31
W W W L W
1 Kashima 16 13 0 3 +17 39
W W W L W
1 Nagoya Grampus 16 10 0 6 +9 31
W W W L W
2 Vissel Kobe 16 10 0 6 +4 31
W L W L L
2 FC Tokyo 17 13 0 4 +15 37
W W L W W
2 Vissel Kobe 16 10 0 6 +4 31
W L W L L
2 FC Tokyo 17 13 0 4 +15 37
W W L W W
3 Gamba Osaka 17 9 0 8 +5 25
L L W L W
3 Machida Zelvia 16 12 0 4 +6 33
W W W L W
3 Gamba Osaka 17 9 0 8 +5 25
L L W L W
3 Machida Zelvia 16 12 0 4 +6 33
W W W L W
4 Tokyo Verdy 17 10 0 7 +2 28
W L L L W
4 Cerezo Osaka 16 9 0 7 +3 25
W L W W L
4 Tokyo Verdy 17 10 0 7 +2 28
W L L L W
4 Cerezo Osaka 16 9 0 7 +3 25
W L W W L
5 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 16 8 0 8 +2 24
W L L L W
5 Urawa 17 7 0 10 +4 25
L W W W W
5 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 16 8 0 8 +2 24
W L L L W
5 Urawa 17 7 0 10 +4 25
L W W W W
6 Shimizu S-pulse 16 8 0 8 +1 24
W W W L L
6 Kawasaki Frontale 16 8 0 8 -5 23
L W L L W
6 Shimizu S-pulse 16 8 0 8 +1 24
W W W L L
6 Kawasaki Frontale 16 8 0 8 -5 23
L W L L W
7 Mito Hollyhock 17 6 0 11 -14 18
L L L W L
7 Fagiano Okayama 16 7 0 9 -4 23
W L W W W
7 Mito Hollyhock 17 6 0 11 -14 18
L L L W L
7 Fagiano Okayama 16 7 0 9 -4 23
W L W W W
8 Avispa Fukuoka 17 7 0 10 -9 21
L W L W L
8 Kashiwa Reysol 17 6 0 11 -4 17
W W L L L
8 Avispa Fukuoka 17 7 0 10 -9 21
L W L W L
8 Kashiwa Reysol 17 6 0 11 -4 17
W W L L L
9 Kyoto Sanga 16 7 0 9 -3 20
L L L L W
9 Yokohama F. Marinos 17 5 0 12 -9 17
L L L L W
9 Kyoto Sanga 16 7 0 9 -3 20
L L L L W
9 Yokohama F. Marinos 17 5 0 12 -9 17
L L L L W
10 JEF United Chiba 16 3 0 13 -12 12
L W L L L
10 V-varen Nagasaki 16 6 0 10 -8 19
L W L W L
10 JEF United Chiba 16 3 0 13 -12 12
L W L L L
10 V-varen Nagasaki 16 6 0 10 -8 19
L W L W L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+11
    Card · Yellow Card · Kosuke Nakamura
  • 90'+11
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Nelson Ishiwatari
  • 90'+4
    Goal · Penalty · Shinji Kagawa
  • 88'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Thiago Andrade
  • 86'
    Card · Yellow Card · Thiago Santana
  • 86'
    Card · Yellow Card · Riku Yamada
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Motohiko Nakajima
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Masaya Shibayama
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Yumeki Yokoyama
  • 83'
    Goal · Missed Penalty · Motohiko Nakajima
  • 83'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Yoneda Shunya
  • 72'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Matheus Jesus
  • 71'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Motoki Hasegawa
  • 63'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Shunta Tanaka
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Eduardo
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Yamasaki Ryogo
  • 62'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Norman Campbell
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 1
  • 28'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Thiago Andrade
  • 25'
    Goal · Penalty · Yamasaki Ryogo
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
CEREZO OSAKA WIN
1.88
53.2% implied
↑ best 1.93
DRAW
3.62
27.6% implied
↑ best 3.75
V-VAREN NAGASAKI WIN
3.79
26.4% implied
↑ best 3.97

Market favors Cerezo Osaka. AI projects CEREZO OSAKA 92% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS CEREZO OSAKA 92% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.90 3.65 3.80 +39.4%
1xBet 1.88 3.66 3.80 +38.8%
888Sport 1.85 3.40 3.75 +37.9%
Bet365 1.90 3.70 3.70 +39.4%
Betano 1.88 3.65 3.80 +38.8%
Betfair 1.80 3.60 3.75 +36.4%
BetVictor 1.91 3.75 3.80 +39.6%
Dafabet 1.90 3.75 3.90 +39.4%
Marathonbet 1.86 3.66 3.82 +38.2%
Pinnacle 1.93 3.74 3.97 +40.2%
SBO 1.91 3.36 3.48 +39.6%
Unibet 1.81 3.70 3.95 +36.8%
William Hill 1.85 3.40 3.75 +37.9%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.22 U 3.93
2.5 O 1.73 U 2.06
3.5 O 2.77 U 1.40
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.64 10 bks
NO
2.13 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.23
Away -0.5 1.91
Away -0.75 1.68
Away -1 1.46
Away -1.25 1.38
Away -1.5 1.30
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.