GOALSENSE
SIGN IN
Liga Profesional de Fútbol · CLAUSURA - 3 · MON, 03 AUG · 19:45 LOCAL
← Match Page
SARMIENTO JUNIN
FT
2 – 1
FULL TIME
INDEPEND. RIVADAVIA
⚽ 12' Mauricio Martínez ⚽ 37' Julián Mavilla
GOALS
⚽ 31' Matías Fernández ⚽ 31' Matías Fernández
CLAUDE AI · BLENDED FROM 4 MODELS
FINAL · VERIFIED
CONF 38/100 LOW
🔮 PREDICTED FULL-TIME SCORE
SAR
1 – 2
IND
most likely scoreline · 10.3% probability
AI PICKS INDEPEND. RIVADAVIA TO WIN 40%
FT 2 – 1
→
🤖 AI PROJECTED FT 1 – 2
🤖 AI BREAKDOWN

HOW AI SEES THE MATCH

FINAL · VERIFIED
SAR WIN 32%
DRAW 28%
IND WIN 40%
h + d + a = 100% · stacked share
💰 AI BETTING TIP
OVER 1.5

AI projects 79.59% — the safest goals market. Combined value over single 1X2 pick at this confidence.

CONF 80% OVER 1.5 ✓ avoid: 1X2 single 4 models
🤖 AI ANALYSIS

Data quality severely compromised; treat as weak heuristic. Rivadavia league-leading position vs Sarmiento's relegation-zone standing suggests away win, but form reversal and missing stats limit conviction.

🤖 AI REASONING why AI picked this
WHY SARMIENTO JUNIN CHALLENGED
32%
League standings show Rivadavia top (34 pts) vs Sarmiento 21st (19 pts) — 15-point gap favours away
+25.0%
Sarmiento home form LWLWL (mixed) and recent overall LLLWL (poor) vs Rivadavia road form DWDDW (defensive, resilient)
+20.0%
Critical data gaps: no xG, clean sheets, or goals-per-match stats for either team; season stat duplication/corruption in input
+15.0%
WHY INDEPEND. RIVADAVIA FAVORED
40%
League standings show Rivadavia top (34 pts) vs Sarmiento 21st (19 pts) — 15-point gap favours away
+25.0%
Sarmiento home form LWLWL (mixed) and recent overall LLLWL (poor) vs Rivadavia road form DWDDW (defensive, resilient)
+20.0%
Critical data gaps: no xG, clean sheets, or goals-per-match stats for either team; season stat duplication/corruption in input
+15.0%
🤖 CONTEXT · NEUTRAL FACTORS
  • League standings show Rivadavia top (34 pts) vs Sarmiento 21st (19 pts) — 15-point gap favours away
  • Sarmiento home form LWLWL (mixed) and recent overall LLLWL (poor) vs Rivadavia road form DWDDW (defensive, resilient)
  • Critical data gaps: no xG, clean sheets, or goals-per-match stats for either team; season stat duplication/corruption in input
🤖 AI LIVE TIMELINE

PROBABILITY TIMELINE

How AI re-projects after each event
H DRAW A
100% 50% 0% KO 15' 30' HT 60' 75' FT ⚽ 12' MAURICIO M ⚽ 31' MATíAS FE ⚽ 31' MATíAS FE ⚽ 37' JULIáN MA
Probabilities re-blended at each event · 4 events marked → Derived from goal events + remaining time
🤖 AI SCORE MATRIX

SCORELINE PROBABILITY

All possible scorelines · Poisson from xG
0% 10.3%+
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
5.0
10.1
10.3
6.9
3.5
1.4
0.5
1
4.8
9.8
10.0
6.7
3.4
1.4
0.5
2
2.3
4.8
4.8
3.3
1.7
0.7
0.2
3
0.8
1.5
1.6
1.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
4
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.1
·
·
5
·
0.1
0.1
·
·
·
·
6+
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
MOST LIKELY · TOP 5
0 — 2 10.3%
0 — 1 10.1%
1 — 2 10.0%
1 — 1 9.8%
0 — 3 6.9%
Top 5 = 47.1% · rest 52.9%
🤖 AI VALUE FINDER

VALUE BETS

Where AI sees an edge vs bookmaker odds
8 markets · pre-match avg odds
MARKETODDSAI PROBFAIREDGE
Over 2.5 Goals
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.52
48.0%
2.08
+21.0%
HOME to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
3.57
32.0%
3.13
+14.2%
Both Teams Score — YES
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.07
54.0%
1.85
+11.6%
HOME or AWAY (12)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.36
72.0%
1.39
-2.0%
—
HOME or Draw (1X)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.62
60.0%
1.67
-2.7%
—
AWAY to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.23
40.0%
2.50
-11.0%
—
Draw or AWAY (X2)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.28
68.0%
1.47
-12.8%
—
Draw
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.96
28.0%
3.57
-17.0%
—
⚠ 18+ only. Odds change frequently. AI predictions are not guarantees. Bet responsibly.