GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–2 · FC DALLAS 74% · Value: Over 2.5 72%
CONF 81 FULL ANALYSIS →
Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 19 · MON, 17 AUG · 00:30 LOCAL
AUSTIN
14TH · 17 PTS · LAST 5:
L L W L L
FT
1 – 2
FULL TIME HT · 0-1
FC DALLAS
D L D W W
· 5TH · 30 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 57' Ervin Torres
GOALS
⚽ 45+2' Lalas Abubakar ⚽ 73' Petar Musa
Ervin Torres
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Ervin Torres
Austin · 97 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 41% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
8.0
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

0.51
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.96
64%
BALL POSSESSION %
36%
9
TOTAL SHOTS
15
4
SHOTS ON TARGET
6
86%
PASS ACCURACY %
80%
7
CORNERS
3
KEY EVENTS 19 events
  1. 33'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Ramiro
    FC
  2. 35'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Mateja Đorđević
    AUS
  3. 45'+2
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Lalas Abubakar · assist Santiago Moreno
    FC
  4. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Ilie Sánchez · assist Przemysław Płacheta
    AUS
  5. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Joseph Rosales · assist Facundo Torres
    AUS
  6. 57'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Ervin Torres
    AUS
  7. 60'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Bernard Kamungo
    FC
  8. 63'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Joaquín Valiente
    FC
  9. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Jon Gallagher · assist Žan Kolmanič
    AUS
  10. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Christian Ramirez · assist Brandon Vázquez
    AUS
  11. 68'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Oleksandr Svatok
    AUS
  12. 70'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Santiago Moreno · assist Logan Farrington
    FC
  13. 73'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Petar Musa · assist Joaquín Valiente
    FC
  14. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Ramiro · assist Kaick
    FC
  15. 83'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Guilherme Biro · assist Jayden Nelson
    AUS
  16. 83'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Osaze Urhoghide
    FC
  17. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Joaquín Valiente · assist Clay Holstad
    FC
  18. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Petar Musa · assist Ran Binyamin
    FC
  19. 90'+9
    Card · Yellow Card
    Myrto Uzuni
    AUS
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
AUSTIN AVG 7.3
FC DALLAS AVG 7.4
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
0.5
xG
1.0
9.0
TOTAL SHOTS
15.0
4.0
ON TARGET
6.0
4.0
OFF TARGET
7.0
1.0
BLOCKED
2.0
POSSESSION
64.0%
POSSESSION %
36.0%
562.0
PASSES
313.0
86.0%
PASS ACCURACY
80.0%
SET PIECES
7.0
CORNERS
3.0
2.0
OFFSIDES
2.0
DISCIPLINE
12.0
FOULS
17.0
2.0
YELLOW CARDS
4.0
4.0
GK SAVES
3.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
AUSTIN 4 shots
Przemysław Płacheta
1/2
Ervin Torres
1/1
Jayden Nelson
1/1
FC DALLAS 8 shots
Petar Musa
3/3
Lalas Abubakar
1/3
Santiago Moreno
1/1
Christian Cappis
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 0.51 – 0.96
0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.0 0.0 HT 57' 45' 73' H 0.51 A 0.96 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 47%
53% A
9
EVENTS LOGGED
10
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-4-3 vs 3-4-2-1
3-4-3
3-4-2-1
7.6
1
BRAD STUV
29
GUILHERME
5
OLEKSANDR
35
MATEJA ĐO
17
JON GALLA
6
ILIE SáNC
14
BESARD SA
30
JOSEPH RO
10
MYRTO UZU
21
CHRISTIAN
 8.0
38
ERVIN TOR
 7.3
40
JONATHAN
25
SEBASTIEN
3
OSAZE URH
 7.3
5
LALAS ABU
77
BERNARD K
17
RAMIRO
 6.9
12
CHRISTIAN
14
HERMAN JO
 7.7
10
SANTIAGO
21
JOAQUíN V
 7.9
9
PETAR MUS
SUBSTITUTES · AUSTIN
7
Jayden Nelso...
F
11
Facundo Torr...
F
77
Przemysław P...
M
24
Jorge Alastu...
M
4
Brendan Hine...
D
23
Žan Kolmanič
D
15
Jonathan Bel...
D
12
Damian Las
G
9
Brandon Vázq...
F
COACH: Davy Arnaud
SUBSTITUTES · FC DALLAS
28
Sam Sarver
F
55
Kaick
M
6
Ran Binyamin
M
33
Clay Holstad
M
18
Shaq Moore
D
22
Alvaro Augus...
D
24
Joshua Torqu...
D
30
Michael Coll...
G
23
Logan Farrin...
F
COACH: Eric Quill
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
AUS · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

FC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Ramy Touchan, USA
—
AUS MANAGER
Davy Arnaud
head coach
FC MANAGER
Eric Quill
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
3
AUS WINS
2
DRAWS
5
FC WINS
30%
20%
50%
11 – 13
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.40
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
14 Sep 2025
FC Dallas
2 – 0
Austin
L
17 Aug 2025
Austin
1 – 1
FC Dallas
D
18 Jul 2024
FC Dallas
3 – 1
Austin
L
12 May 2024
FC Dallas
2 – 1
Austin
L
31 Mar 2024
Austin
2 – 1
FC Dallas
W
AUSTIN LAST 5 OVERALL
L L W L L
FC DALLAS LAST 5 OVERALL
D L D W W
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–2 · result locked
AUSTIN #14
Lost · already at 17 pts
FC DALLAS #5
Won · already at 30 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 18 11 4 3 +23 37
W D D L W
1 Nashville SC 19 13 4 2 +24 43
W D L W W
2 Houston Dynamo 19 11 2 6 +4 35
W W W W D
2 Inter Miami 19 11 5 3 +10 38
L D W W W
3 Los Angeles FC 20 10 4 6 +15 34
L D W W W
3 Chicago Fire 18 10 2 6 +10 32
W W L L W
4 New England Revolution 19 9 3 7 +4 30
L L D W D
4 San Jose Earthquakes 19 10 3 6 +11 33
L L D L W
5 FC Dallas 19 8 6 5 +8 30
W D L D W
5 Charlotte 19 8 4 7 +4 28
W L W D W
6 St. Louis City 19 8 5 6 +2 29
W D W W W
6 FC Cincinnati 19 7 6 6 +1 27
D W L W W
7 Real Salt Lake 18 8 4 6 +4 28
D D L L D
7 New York City FC 19 7 5 7 +6 26
L D W W L
8 New York Red Bulls 19 7 4 8 -11 25
L W L L W
8 Colorado Rapids 19 8 1 10 +4 25
W W L W L
9 Minnesota United FC 19 6 7 6 -5 25
D D D L D
9 DC United 19 5 9 5 -3 24
D D W D D
10 Portland Timbers 19 7 3 9 -1 24
L W W D W
10 Orlando City SC 19 6 3 10 -17 21
D L W W L
11 Seattle Sounders 18 7 3 8 -4 24
L L L L L
11 Columbus Crew 19 5 5 9 -4 20
L D W L W
12 Toronto FC 19 4 8 7 -7 20
W D L D D
12 San Diego 19 6 6 7 +4 24
W D W L L
13 Los Angeles Galaxy 20 5 7 8 -6 22
L D D L L
13 Philadelphia Union 19 5 4 10 -7 19
W W W W L
14 Austin 19 4 5 10 -15 17
L L L W L
14 CF Montreal 19 4 5 10 -11 17
D D L L D
15 Sporting Kansas City 19 4 2 13 -30 14
L L L W L
15 Atlanta United FC 19 4 3 12 -13 15
W L L D L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+9
    Card · Yellow Card · Myrto Uzuni
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Petar Musa
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Joaquín Valiente
  • 83'
    Card · Yellow Card · Osaze Urhoghide
  • 83'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Guilherme Biro
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Ramiro
  • 73'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Petar Musa
  • 70'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Santiago Moreno
  • 68'
    Card · Yellow Card · Oleksandr Svatok
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Christian Ramirez
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Jon Gallagher
  • 63'
    Card · Yellow Card · Joaquín Valiente
  • 60'
    Card · Yellow Card · Bernard Kamungo
  • 57'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Ervin Torres
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Joseph Rosales
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Ilie Sánchez
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 1
  • 45'+2
    Goal · Normal Goal · Lalas Abubakar
  • 35'
    Card · Yellow Card · Mateja Đorđević
  • 33'
    Card · Yellow Card · Ramiro
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
AUSTIN WIN
2.88
34.7% implied
↑ best 3.02
DRAW
3.56
28.1% implied
↑ best 3.70
FC DALLAS WIN
2.28
43.9% implied
↑ best 2.38

Market favors FC Dallas. AI projects FC DALLAS 74% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS FC DALLAS 74% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.84 3.50 2.32 +30.9%
888Sport 2.75 3.60 2.20 +28.5%
Bet365 3.00 3.50 2.30 +30.5%
Betano 2.90 3.70 2.32 +30.9%
Betfair 2.88 3.50 2.30 +30.5%
BetVictor 2.88 3.60 2.25 +29.6%
Dafabet 2.95 3.60 2.38 +32.0%
Marathonbet 2.89 3.52 2.26 +29.8%
Pinnacle 3.02 3.63 2.34 +31.3%
SBO 2.78 3.41 2.30 +30.5%
Unibet 2.90 3.60 2.23 +29.2%
William Hill 2.75 3.60 2.20 +28.5%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.19 U 4.40
2.5 O 1.66 U 2.19
3.5 O 2.62 U 1.46
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.54 9 bks
NO
2.34 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.51
Away -0.5 1.42
Away -0.75 1.28
Away -1 1.17
Away -1.25 1.13
Away -1.5 1.11
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.