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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–0 · ST. LOUIS CITY 87%
CONF 82 FULL ANALYSIS →
Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 17 · SUN, 26 JUL · 00:30 LOCAL
ST. LOUIS CITY
7TH · 25 PTS · LAST 5:
W W W D W
FT
1 – 0
FULL TIME HT · 0-0
COLORADO RAPIDS
W L L W L
· 13TH · 19 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 83' Tomáš Ostrák
GOALS
Timo Baumgartl
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Timo Baumgartl
St. Louis City · 92 mins
· 65% pass acc
RATING
7.9
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 1 CLIP

powered by Highlightly
St. Louis CITY SC vs. Colorado Rapids | Full Match Highlights | TIGHT TILT AGAINST TEN MEN
Open in Youtube ↗
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.03
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.11
66%
BALL POSSESSION %
34%
19
TOTAL SHOTS
2
3
SHOTS ON TARGET
0
90%
PASS ACCURACY %
80%
9
CORNERS
1
KEY EVENTS 16 events
  1. 12'
    Card · Red Card
    Rob Holding
    COL
  2. 17'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Dante Sealy · assist Miguel Navarro
    COL
  3. 25'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Hamzat Ojediran
    COL
  4. 45'+3
    Card · Yellow Card
    Christopher Durkin
    ST.
  5. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Darren Yapi · assist Georgi Minoungou
    COL
  6. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Reggie Cannon · assist Noah Cobb
    COL
  7. 55'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Hamzat Ojediran · assist Kosi Thompson
    COL
  8. 59'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Jeong Sang-bin · assist Eduard Löwen
    ST.
  9. 68'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Josh Atencio
    COL
  10. 69'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Josh Atencio · assist Wayne Frederick
    COL
  11. 76'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Christopher Durkin · assist Tomáš Ostrák
    ST.
  12. 76'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Simon Becher · assist Palmer Ault
    ST.
  13. 83'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Tomáš Ostrák · assist Tomas Totland
    ST.
  14. 87'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Jaziel Orozco · assist Lukas MacNaughton
    ST.
  15. 89'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Marcel Hartel · assist Miguel Perez
    ST.
  16. 90'+6
    Card · Yellow Card
    Kosi Thompson
    COL
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
ST. LOUIS CITY AVG 7.5
COLORADO RAPIDS AVG 7.1
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.0
xG
0.1
19.0
TOTAL SHOTS
2.0
3.0
ON TARGET
0.0
6.0
OFF TARGET
2.0
10.0
BLOCKED
0.0
POSSESSION
66.0%
POSSESSION %
34.0%
553.0
PASSES
284.0
90.0%
PASS ACCURACY
80.0%
SET PIECES
9.0
CORNERS
1.0
3.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
20.0
FOULS
8.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
2.0
0.0
RED CARDS
1.0
0.0
GK SAVES
2.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
ST. LOUIS CITY 3 shots
Tomáš Ostrák
1/1
Marcel Hartel
0/1
Dante Polvara
0/1
COLORADO RAPIDS 2 shots
Rafael Navarro
0/2
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.03 – 0.11
0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.0 0.0 HT 83' H 1.03 A 0.11 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 44%
56% A
7
EVENTS LOGGED
9
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-4-3 vs 4-3-3
3-4-3
4-3-3
1
ROMAN BüR
 7.2
21
DANTE POL
 7.9
32
TIMO BAUM
 7.3
99
JAZIEL OR
14
TOMAS TOT
24
DANIEL ED
8
CHRISTOPH
6
CONRAD WA
 7.2
17
MARCEL HA
11
SIMON BEC
77
JEONG SAN
 6.9
41
NICHOLAS
 7.0
22
LUCAS HER
6
ROB HOLDI
5
LOïC WILL
4
REGGIE CA
12
JOSH ATEN
 6.9
10
PAXTEN AA
8
HAMZAT OJ
77
DARREN YA
 7.2
9
RAFAEL NA
7
DANTE SEA
SUBSTITUTES · ST. LOUIS CITY
10
Eduard Löwen
M
59
Mykhi Joyner
M
20
Rafael Santo...
D
7
Tomáš Ostrák
M
28
Miguel Perez
M
5
Lukas MacNau...
D
27
Fallou Fall
D
39
Benjamin Lun...
G
29
Palmer Ault
M
COACH: Yoann Damet
SUBSTITUTES · COLORADO RAPIDS
16
Alex Harris
F
93
Georgi Minou...
F
13
Wayne Freder...
M
33
Kosi Thompso...
D
29
Miguel Navar...
D
2
Keegan Rosen...
D
24
Noah Cobb
D
31
Adam Beaudry
G
32
Donavan Phil...
F
COACH: Matt Wells
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
ST. · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

COL · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
N. Bensalah
—
ST. MANAGER
Yoann Damet
head coach
COL MANAGER
Matt Wells
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
1
ST. WINS
2
DRAWS
3
COL WINS
16.7%
33.3%
50%
4 – 9
TOTAL GOALS · 6 MEETINGS
2.17
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 6
10 May 2026
Colorado Rapids
0 – 1
St. Louis City
W
25 May 2025
Colorado Rapids
1 – 0
St. Louis City
L
23 Feb 2025
St. Louis City
0 – 0
Colorado Rapids
D
08 Jul 2024
Colorado Rapids
4 – 1
St. Louis City
L
20 Jun 2024
St. Louis City
0 – 3
Colorado Rapids
L
ST. LOUIS CITY LAST 5 OVERALL
W W W D W
COLORADO RAPIDS LAST 5 OVERALL
W L L W L
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–0 · result locked
ST. LOUIS CITY #7
Won · already at 25 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
COLORADO RAPIDS #13
Lost · already at 19 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 16 10 3 3 +21 33
D L W L W
1 Nashville SC 17 12 3 2 +21 39
L W W W W
2 Los Angeles FC 18 10 3 5 +16 33
W W W W L
2 Inter Miami 17 11 4 2 +13 37
W W W W W
3 San Jose Earthquakes 17 10 3 4 +15 33
D L W L L
3 New England Revolution 16 9 2 5 +7 29
W D L W L
4 Chicago Fire 16 8 2 6 +8 26
L L W W W
4 Real Salt Lake 16 8 2 6 +4 26
L L D W W
5 Houston Dynamo 16 8 2 6 -1 26
W D D W L
5 New York City FC 17 7 4 6 +7 25
W W L D W
6 FC Dallas 17 7 5 5 +7 26
L D W W L
6 Charlotte 17 7 4 6 +3 25
W D W W L
7 St. Louis City 17 7 4 6 0 25
W W W W D
7 FC Cincinnati 17 6 5 6 -1 23
L W W D L
8 New York Red Bulls 17 6 4 7 -11 22
L L W D W
8 Seattle Sounders 16 7 3 6 -1 24
L L L L L
9 Minnesota United FC 17 6 5 6 -5 23
D L D L L
9 DC United 17 5 7 5 -3 22
W D D D L
10 Portland Timbers 17 6 3 8 -1 21
W D W L L
10 Orlando City SC 17 6 2 9 -16 20
W W L D W
11 Los Angeles Galaxy 18 5 6 7 -5 21
D L L D W
11 Columbus Crew 17 5 4 8 -2 19
W L W D L
12 Toronto FC 17 3 7 7 -8 16
L D D L L
12 San Diego 17 5 5 7 +3 20
W L L D W
13 Colorado Rapids 17 6 1 10 +1 19
L W L L W
13 CF Montreal 17 4 3 10 -11 15
L L D D L
14 Austin 17 4 5 8 -13 17
L W L L L
14 Philadelphia Union 17 3 4 10 -9 13
W W L D L
15 Sporting Kansas City 17 4 2 11 -26 14
L W L L W
15 Atlanta United FC 17 3 3 11 -13 12
L D L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+6
    Card · Yellow Card · Kosi Thompson
  • 89'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Marcel Hartel
  • 87'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Jaziel Orozco
  • 83'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Tomáš Ostrák
  • 76'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Simon Becher
  • 76'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Christopher Durkin
  • 69'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Josh Atencio
  • 68'
    Card · Yellow Card · Josh Atencio
  • 59'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Jeong Sang-bin
  • 55'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Hamzat Ojediran
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Reggie Cannon
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Darren Yapi
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 0
  • 45'+3
    Card · Yellow Card · Christopher Durkin
  • 25'
    Card · Yellow Card · Hamzat Ojediran
  • 17'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Dante Sealy
  • 12'
    Card · Red Card · Rob Holding
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
ST. LOUIS CITY WIN
1.97
50.8% implied
↑ best 2.02
DRAW
3.68
27.2% implied
↑ best 3.85
COLORADO RAPIDS WIN
3.54
28.2% implied
↑ best 3.75

Market favors St. Louis City. AI projects ST. LOUIS CITY 87%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS ST. LOUIS CITY 87% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.97 3.70 3.40 +36.2%
Bet365 1.95 3.70 3.75 +35.7%
Betano 1.98 3.70 3.60 +36.5%
Betfair 1.95 3.70 3.50 +35.7%
BetVictor 1.93 3.70 3.60 +35.2%
Dafabet 2.02 3.75 3.60 +37.5%
Marathonbet 1.89 3.68 3.68 +34.1%
Pinnacle 1.99 3.85 3.67 +36.7%
SBO 2.00 3.48 3.33 +37.0%
Superbet 2.00 3.70 3.55 +37.0%
Unibet 2.02 3.70 3.35 +37.5%
William Hill 1.95 3.50 3.40 +35.7%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.20 U 4.40
2.5 O 1.66 U 2.19
3.5 O 2.65 U 1.46
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.56 9 bks
NO
2.28 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.14
Away -0.5 1.83
Away -0.75 1.65
Away -1 1.45
Away -1.25 1.35
Away -1.5 1.30
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.