GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · COLUMBUS CREW 48% · Value: Over 2.5 62%
CONF 45 FULL ANALYSIS →
Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 17 · SAT, 25 JUL · 23:15 LOCAL
COLUMBUS CREW
11TH · 20 PTS · LAST 5:
D L W D L
FT
2 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 2-1
FC CINCINNATI
W W W D L
· 6TH · 26 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 41' Jamal Thiaré ⚽ 45+6' Dániel Gazdag (P)
GOALS
⚽ 9' Kévin Denkey
Roman Celentano
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Roman Celentano
FC Cincinnati · 87 mins
· 10% pass acc
RATING
8.7
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

2.29
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.80
53%
BALL POSSESSION %
47%
13
TOTAL SHOTS
11
6
SHOTS ON TARGET
5
91%
PASS ACCURACY %
88%
4
CORNERS
4
KEY EVENTS 15 events
  1. 9'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Kévin Denkey · assist Evander
    FC
  2. 41'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Jamal Thiaré · assist Dylan Chambost
    COL
  3. 45'+6
    Goal · Penalty
    Dániel Gazdag
    COL
  4. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Sekou Tidiany Bangoura · assist André Gomes
    COL
  5. 65'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Kenji Mboma Dem · assist Tom Barlow
    FC
  6. 65'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Ender Echenique · assist Bryan Ramirez
    FC
  7. 66'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Matt Miazga
    FC
  8. 71'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Matt Miazga · assist Kyle Smith
    FC
  9. 71'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Kévin Denkey · assist Ayoub Jabbari
    FC
  10. 72'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Dylan Chambost · assist Tarun Karumanchi
    COL
  11. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Jamal Thiaré · assist Hugo Picard
    COL
  12. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Obinna Nwobodo · assist Tah Anunga
    FC
  13. 86'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Dániel Gazdag · assist C. Adams
    COL
  14. 86'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Steven Moreira · assist Malte Amundsen
    COL
  15. 90'+4
    Card · Red Card
    Gerardo Valenzuela
    FC
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
COLUMBUS CREW AVG 7.5
FC CINCINNATI AVG 7.5
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
2.3
xG
0.8
13.0
TOTAL SHOTS
11.0
6.0
ON TARGET
5.0
5.0
OFF TARGET
5.0
2.0
BLOCKED
1.0
POSSESSION
53.0%
POSSESSION %
47.0%
523.0
PASSES
452.0
91.0%
PASS ACCURACY
88.0%
SET PIECES
4.0
CORNERS
4.0
1.0
OFFSIDES
1.0
DISCIPLINE
11.0
FOULS
6.0
0.0
YELLOW CARDS
1.0
4.0
GK SAVES
4.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
COLUMBUS CREW 8 shots
Dániel Gazdag
2/3
Jamal Thiaré
1/3
Dylan Chambost
0/1
Maximilian Arfsten
1/1
FC CINCINNATI 7 shots
Evander
1/4
Kévin Denkey
2/3
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 2.29 – 0.80
1.8 1.4 0.9 0.5 2.3 0.0 HT 41' 45' 9' H 2.29 A 0.80 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 47%
53% A
7
EVENTS LOGGED
8
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-4-2-1 vs 3-4-3
3-4-2-1
3-4-3
28
PATRICK S
25
SEAN ZAWA
4
RUDY CAMA
31
STEVEN MO
 7.3
27
MAXIMILIA
17
SEKOU TID
 8.3
7
DYLAN CHA
23
MOHAMED F
 7.3
8
DáNIEL GA
16
TAHA HABR
 7.2
19
JAMAL THI
 8.7
18
ROMAN CEL
12
MILES ROB
21
MATT MIAZ
11
SAMUEL GI
66
ENDER ECH
 7.2
5
OBINNA NW
22
GERARDO V
20
PAVEL BUC
 7.0
10
EVANDER
 7.6
9
KéVIN DEN
17
KENJI MBO
SUBSTITUTES · COLUMBUS CREW
90
Nariman Akhu...
F
20
André Gomes
M
14
Amar Sejdic
M
30
Hugo Picard
M
50
Tarun Karuma...
M
45
Owen Presthu...
D
12
Cesar Ruvalc...
D
18
Malte Amunds...
D
1
Nicholas Hag...
G
46
Chase Adams
F
COACH: Laurent Courtois
SUBSTITUTES · FC CINCINNATI
16
Tom Barlow
F
27
Tah Anunga
M
29
Bryan Ramire...
D
15
Teenage Hade...
D
4
Nick Hagglun...
D
24
Kyle Smith
D
2
Alvas Powell
D
13
Evan Louro
G
99
Ayoub Jabbar...
F
COACH: Pat Noonan
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
COL · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

FC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
A. Chapman
—
COL MANAGER
Laurent Courtois
head coach
FC MANAGER
Pat Noonan
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
5
COL WINS
2
DRAWS
3
FC WINS
50%
20%
30%
19 – 11
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
3.00
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
08 Nov 2025
FC Cincinnati
2 – 1
Columbus Crew
L
02 Nov 2025
Columbus Crew
4 – 0
FC Cincinnati
W
27 Oct 2025
FC Cincinnati
1 – 0
Columbus Crew
L
12 Jul 2025
FC Cincinnati
2 – 4
Columbus Crew
W
17 May 2025
Columbus Crew
1 – 1
FC Cincinnati
D
COLUMBUS CREW LAST 5 OVERALL
D L W D L
FC CINCINNATI LAST 5 OVERALL
W W W D L
MATCH IMPACT Final 2–1 · result locked
COLUMBUS CREW #11
Won · already at 20 pts
FC CINCINNATI #6
Lost · already at 26 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 17 10 4 3 +21 34
D D L W L
1 Nashville SC 18 12 4 2 +21 40
D L W W W
2 Los Angeles FC 19 10 4 5 +16 34
D W W W W
2 Inter Miami 18 11 5 2 +13 38
D W W W W
3 San Jose Earthquakes 18 10 3 5 +13 33
L D L W L
3 New England Revolution 17 9 3 5 +7 30
D W D L W
4 Chicago Fire 17 9 2 6 +9 29
W L L W W
4 Houston Dynamo 17 9 2 6 +1 29
W W D D W
5 Real Salt Lake 17 8 3 6 +4 27
D L L D W
5 New York City FC 18 7 5 6 +7 26
D W W L D
6 FC Dallas 18 7 6 5 +7 27
D L D W W
6 FC Cincinnati 18 7 5 6 +1 26
W L W W D
7 St. Louis City 18 7 5 6 0 26
D W W W W
7 Charlotte 18 7 4 7 +2 25
L W D W W
8 New York Red Bulls 18 7 4 7 -10 25
W L L W D
8 Portland Timbers 18 7 3 8 0 24
W W D W L
9 Seattle Sounders 17 7 3 7 -2 24
L L L L L
9 DC United 18 5 8 5 -3 23
D W D D D
10 Minnesota United FC 18 6 6 6 -5 24
D D L D L
10 Orlando City SC 18 6 2 10 -17 20
L W W L D
11 Colorado Rapids 18 7 1 10 +2 22
W L W L L
11 Columbus Crew 18 5 5 8 -2 20
D W L W D
12 Toronto FC 18 3 8 7 -8 17
D L D D L
12 Los Angeles Galaxy 19 5 7 7 -5 22
D D L L D
13 San Diego 18 5 6 7 +3 21
D W L L D
13 Philadelphia Union 18 4 4 10 -8 16
W W W L D
14 Austin 18 4 5 9 -14 17
L L W L L
14 CF Montreal 18 4 4 10 -11 16
D L L D D
15 Sporting Kansas City 18 4 2 12 -28 14
L L W L L
15 Atlanta United FC 18 3 3 12 -14 12
L L D L L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+4
    Card · Red Card · Gerardo Valenzuela
  • 86'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Steven Moreira
  • 86'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Dániel Gazdag
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Obinna Nwobodo
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Jamal Thiaré
  • 72'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Dylan Chambost
  • 71'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Kévin Denkey
  • 71'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Matt Miazga
  • 66'
    Card · Yellow Card · Matt Miazga
  • 65'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Ender Echenique
  • 65'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Kenji Mboma Dem
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Sekou Tidiany Bangoura
  • HALF TIME · 2 – 1
  • 45'+6
    Goal · Penalty · Dániel Gazdag
  • 41'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Jamal Thiaré
  • 9'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Kévin Denkey
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
COLUMBUS CREW WIN
2.04
49% implied
↑ best 2.11
DRAW
3.85
26% implied
↑ best 4.00
FC CINCINNATI WIN
3.26
30.7% implied
↑ best 3.45

Market favors Columbus Crew. AI projects COLUMBUS CREW 48% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS COLUMBUS CREW 48% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.04 3.75 3.25 -0.7%
Bet365 2.00 3.80 3.30 -0.3%
Betano 2.10 4.00 3.35 +1.0%
Betfair 2.05 3.90 3.25 +0.4%
BetVictor 2.05 3.90 3.10 +0.4%
Dafabet 2.06 3.95 3.35 +0.7%
Marathonbet 2.03 3.78 3.18 -0.5%
Pinnacle 2.11 3.89 3.30 +0.6%
SBO 1.96 3.83 3.16 -0.1%
Superbet 2.05 3.85 3.30 +0.0%
Unibet 1.92 3.95 3.45 +0.7%
William Hill 2.05 3.60 3.10 -0.8%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.14 U 5.58
2.5 O 1.47 U 2.62
3.5 O 2.17 U 1.68
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.42 9 bks
NO
2.68 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.01
Away -0.5 1.79
Away -0.75 1.59
Away -1 1.46
Away -1.25 1.33
Away -1.5 1.30
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.