GOALSENSE
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Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 15 · SAT, 16 MAY · 23:30 LOCAL
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DC UNITED
FT
1 – 1
FULL TIME
ST. LOUIS CITY
⚽ 90' Peglow
GOALS
⚽ 50' Chris Durkin
CLAUDE AI · BLENDED FROM 4 MODELS
FINAL · VERIFIED
CONF 48/100 MED
🔮 PREDICTED FULL-TIME SCORE
DC
1 – 1
ST.
most likely scoreline · 14.2% probability
AI PICKS DC UNITED TO WIN 42%
FT 1 – 1
→
🤖 AI PROJECTED FT 1 – 1
🤖 AI BREAKDOWN

HOW AI SEES THE MATCH

FINAL · VERIFIED
DC WIN 42%
DRAW 28%
ST. WIN 30%
h + d + a = 100% · stacked share
💰 AI BETTING TIP
DOUBLE CHANCE — 1X

Tight 1X2 — single-side too risky. Double chance covers 70% of outcomes with smaller payout.

CONF 70% avoid: 1X2 single 4 models
🤖 AI ANALYSIS

Evenly matched mid-table sides; slight home edge offset by St. Louis recent form — draw or low-scoring home win most likely.

🤖 AI REASONING why AI picked this
WHY DC UNITED FAVORED
42%
DC United home record (LWWLD) slightly better than St. Louis away form (WLLLW), but both volatile
+25.0%
WHY ST. LOUIS CITY CHALLENGED
30%
St. Louis City recent form tumble (WWLLL) vs DC United slight uptick (LDWWD) — form divergence favors home
+20.0%
Goal expectation low: DC +4 GD vs St. Louis -7 GD; combined 28 GA in young season suggests defensive fragility
+15.0%
🤖 CONTEXT · NEUTRAL FACTORS
  • St. Louis City recent form tumble (WWLLL) vs DC United slight uptick (LDWWD) — form divergence favors home
  • Goal expectation low: DC +4 GD vs St. Louis -7 GD; combined 28 GA in young season suggests defensive fragility
🤖 AI LIVE TIMELINE

PROBABILITY TIMELINE

How AI re-projects after each event
H DRAW A
100% 50% 0% KO 15' 30' HT 60' 75' FT ⚽ 50' CHRIS DURK ⚽ 90' PEGLOW
Probabilities re-blended at each event · 2 events marked → Derived from goal events + remaining time
🤖 AI SCORE MATRIX

SCORELINE PROBABILITY

All possible scorelines · Poisson from xG
0% 14.2%+
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
13.5
12.9
6.1
1.9
0.5
0.1
·
1
14.2
13.5
6.4
2.0
0.5
0.1
·
2
7.5
7.1
3.4
1.1
0.3
·
·
3
2.6
2.5
1.2
0.4
0.1
·
·
4
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.1
·
·
·
5
0.1
0.1
0.1
·
·
·
·
6+
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
MOST LIKELY · TOP 5
1 — 0 14.2%
0 — 0 13.5%
1 — 1 13.5%
0 — 1 12.9%
2 — 0 7.5%
Top 5 = 61.6% · rest 38.4%
🤖 AI VALUE FINDER

VALUE BETS

Where AI sees an edge vs bookmaker odds
8 markets · pre-match avg odds
MARKETODDSAI PROBFAIREDGE
Draw
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
3.46
28.0%
3.57
-3.0%
—
HOME to Win
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.30
42.0%
2.38
-3.6%
—
HOME or Draw (1X)
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.37
70.0%
1.43
-4.0%
—
Draw or AWAY (X2)
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.59
58.0%
1.72
-7.8%
—
HOME or AWAY (12)
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.27
72.0%
1.39
-8.3%
—
Both Teams Score — YES
8 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.58
56.0%
1.79
-11.3%
—
AWAY to Win
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.94
30.0%
3.33
-11.7%
—
Over 2.5 Goals
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.72
51.0%
1.96
-12.1%
—
⚠ 18+ only. Odds change frequently. AI predictions are not guarantees. Bet responsibly.